NC_hailstorm Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Euro and Ukie look safely off shore for the moment,no concern yet unless we get a big west jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro and Ukie look safely off shore for the moment,no concern yet unless we get a big west jump. Yeah, but there has been a few west shifts today. The Euro and 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, but there has been a few west shifts today. The Euro and 18z GFS Models really wont get a good handle on the whole Jose, WAR, trough timing issue for a few more days, especially since a lot of it has to do with Jose and what happens with him....the trend today was weaker with Jose and maybe a bit faster with Maria....the NHC weakens Jose to a 40 mph post tropical low in 3-4 days not sure how much effect that will have on Maria....it certainly isn't reflecting the models which have him as a strong storm still....as Jose weakens the models will probably run him weaker and weaker and thus we could see a continued west shift with Maria....still for the next few days I wouldn't expect much agreement from the models, at least with the exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Out to hr 72 looks to be east of the 18zSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 By 126 Jose is gone but there is nothing to send Maria west.....so OTS she goes.....still a lot of differences run to run with a lot of the H5 features.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Maria will have to ride the coast or hit land, that HP over the Atlantic keeps trending a tad west each run. As always, still a lot to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, JoshM said: Maria will have to ride the coast or hit land, that HP over the Atlantic keeps trending a tad west each run. As always, still a lot to be determined. Yep still a long time to go and plenty of things can and will change....seems the west trend is more likely than a east one at this point lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Writing her off 12 hours ago, no way she hits, now here we are now and she's going to wipe the OBX from the face of the planet. Is this winter or... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Writing her off 12 hours ago, no way she hits, now here we are now and she's going to wipe the OBX from the face of the planet. Is this winter or... Ya, you can easily get whiplash on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 Yeah so this is the point and click forecast for SE Puerto Rico.... Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 79. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 120 to 130 mph becoming south 55 to 65 mph. Winds could gust as high as 180 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Euro came in west of the 12 z runsSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 The Euro handled Jose completely different at 00Z than it did at 12Z, all day though we have seen the ridge trend stronger and Jose weaker.....the problem is the models flip flop on Jose every run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Welll gfs keeps trending east i expect the euro to correct back east.. I know we are still 7 days away but looks like it's coming clearer and clearer that Maria will stay off shore... the days a winding down and I don't expect models to correct west enough to have Maria landfall on the east coastSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Welll gfs keeps trending east i expect the euro to correct back east.. I know we are still 7 days away but looks like it's coming clearer and clearer that Maria will stay off shore... the days a winding down and I don't expect models to correct west enough to have Maria landfall on the east coast Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk I hope you're right because I've made it known I don't want to this thing anywhere close to me in SE NC. With that said, the models went 150-200 miles west yesterday and only went about half that east over night. I mentioned it yesterday but I believe it will be Friday before we have a good feel for this. Jose and the High over the Atlantic are still trying to figure out what they want to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Welll gfs keeps trending east i expect the euro to correct back east.. I know we are still 7 days away but looks like it's coming clearer and clearer that Maria will stay off shore... the days a winding down and I don't expect models to correct west enough to have Maria landfall on the east coast Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Nothing's clear yet. 6 hours ago, downeastnc said: Yep still a long time to go and plenty of things can and will change....seems the west trend is more likely than a east one at this point lol.... I agree, Harvey and Irma both schooled us on last minute track adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Guess anything's possible...this is where GEFS/EPS had IRMA 4-5 days out from landfall of FL v/s what verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 The problem is "IF" Maria hits NC the models probably wont pick up on it well until this weekend....both the GFS and Euro had runs earlier that had Jose die quickly and the WAR push Maria west....this Euro run from Sat night is actually kinda sorta what I think the models are trending towards....or at least hinting at by weakening Jose faster and trying to make the WAR stronger...I just got a bad feeling about Maria hope its wrong.... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017091700&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The problem is "IF" Maria hits NC the models probably wont pick up on it well until this weekend....both the GFS and Euro had runs earlier that had Jose die quickly and the WAR push Maria west....this Euro run from Sat night is actually kinda sorta what I think the models are trending towards....or at least hinting at by weakening Jose faster and trying to make the WAR stronger...I just got a bad feeling about Maria hope its wrong.... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017091700&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 This will definitely be something to watch for. That run stuck in my head too. Not naming names, but on social media in general there's been a lot of bullish perspectives on this being OTC or OTC enough to not have implications here in NC. They insisted that was fact even when it was 8-10 days out. Odd when back these days with Irma there was the understanding that it's days out and models will change. I told someone the other day that I was Switzerland on this, because still we are a good ways out and it very well could drive by closer than we thought or even inland some. I'm not a betting woman on this. These storms have been incredibly difficult. Of course this could reverse again. It's just sobering to see it closer west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Regan said: This will definitely be something to watch for. That run stuck in my head too. Not naming names, but on social media in general there's been a lot of bullish perspectives on this being OTC or OTC enough to not have implications here in NC. They insisted that was fact even when it was 8-10 days out. Odd when back these days with Irma there was the understanding that it's days out and models will change. I told someone the other day that I was Switzerland on this, because still we are a good ways out and it very well could drive by closer than we thought or even inland some. I'm not a betting woman on this. These storms have been incredibly difficult. Of course this could reverse again. It's just sobering to see it closer west. JB just said his area to watch is from NC to MA, he's saying there's a lot bigger envelope for it to move west , than to the east, on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I'm sure we'll have plenty of back and forth with the models. Just too early to tell now. Maria could be a threat to hit just as much as it could go out to sea. Euro seems to come west a bit again, so that is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: I'm sure we'll have plenty of back and forth with the models. Just too early to tell now. Maria could be a threat to hit just as much as it could go out to sea. Euro seems to come west a bit again, so that is concerning. Based on position it's about 30% chance and US LF overwhelming east coast threat as opposed to GOM. That's from don s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 120 the 12Z is slower and basically the same distance east of the NC coast at the 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 150, much slower but making a noticable turn to the NW still off the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 96, the 12Z GFS has Jose non-existent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Still moving NW slowly and off the Outer Banks at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 174, it finally decides to turn NE but not until it spends about 24 hours off the coast of NC and within 150-200 miles of the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 No doubt the GFS moved west a good bit this run as compared to the 06Z but then again, it is the GFS. If he EURO moves west from previous run it will probably landfall in NC but I fully expect it to go back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 12zCMC shows how a landfall can occur...Jose dissipates quicker then GFS, remnants die off into the MA and the ULL in the deep south helps pull Maria in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.