packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 UK ens shifted west, a few members close to OBX. Also, looks like it does loop Jose back into the MA coast. https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Solak said: Recon - 916mb Damn ! Puerto Rico about to be wiped clean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK ens shifted west, a few members close to OBX. Also, looks like it does loop Jose back into the MA coast. https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ What did Euro ensembles do? Did I miss the post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What did Euro ensembles do? Did I miss the post? Shifted west a little. Still clustered safely off the coast though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 NW trend ain't no joke. It's burned me and gave me gold before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 Hard to imagine a way Maria makes it to the east coast given the setup....really about the only chance as I see it is she is either faster than modeled and or Jose fizzes a lot faster.....we are still talking a good 7-8 days out so plenty could change but there seems to be strong agreement with the way Jose plays out so its a wait and see game now. Puerto Rico on the other hand is about to take their worse cane hit on record probably unless they get lucky with a timely ERC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Down another 3... 913mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 TWC actually has a crew in San Juan, PR! Poor Paul Goodloe! Mad respect tho, if he stays for impact ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Out to 90 and I swear I believe the GFS is just going to follow whatever the EURO does everytime. EURO moved a little west last run and now the GFS acts like it wants to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 At hour 108 Maria is west of the 12z run and strongerSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 At hour 120 it's has turned NW let see where we end up from here..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 At 120, I would say it's 100 miles or more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 At 126 faster and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 126 it is headed out to sea.. will be interesting to see 0z suite to see if the west trend continues or if it's just a hiccup.. I believe the interaction with p.r will play a role in the track it depends on how it wobbles as it approaches the islandSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 18z GFS connects the AR to the ridge over the NE day 4 so the path to Jose is eliminated. On its own with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 At 126 and 132 it's moving N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 At 138 it has a N heading the n.e jog at hr 126 didn't last long...Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Someone I'm sure can measure it but it almost looks like 150-175 miles west this run as compared to the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I believe the review of this run would be quicker and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 18z vs 12zSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 909mb??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The storm it's self is stronger and alot bigger than the 12z.. Gfs has been consistent in not buying into the Fujiwara effect that Euro has been showing that has been shunting Maria ots.Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon tagged it at 910. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 7:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19 Location: 16.9°N 64.1°W Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 909 mb Max sustained: 175 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 There has been a fairly decent west shift in most of the models today...the Euro/GFS/CMC hell even the Navgem are further west....still a week out from a landfall in NC if it did indeed come here.....that's a lot of time for the models to change, I am sure there will be some G4 flights over the west ATL and more balloons later this week as well to try and get a better handle on the players as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 906??????????? Image won't load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 50 minutes ago, Solak said: 906??????????? Image won't load. San Juan is gonna get drilled. Really sucks to see this horror unfold. Lots of people live there and many of the homes are shoddy at best. The images of damage tomorrow night into Thursday should be just awful. Puerto Rico is a beautiful island. I've been there twice and even saw my first and only waterspout there at the airport of all places, which sits right near the water. Close enough to where I could see the waterspout from the window of the gate inside the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Pretty good shift west at the 8pm model updates. Still seeing majority east of center line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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