FallsLake Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 52 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I feel like Maria is the last decent opportunity for an EC hit this year, and the chances here are rapidly going down the drain. We may still have a window for a couple more weeks, but usually, we start to see more frequent troughing moving through this time of year, which will greatly lessen the chances of impact. Just weird how there are no troughs available to carry Jose on OTS. The last couple of weeks has provided a predominant ridge in the east. As long as this pattern holds we'll have tropical systems taking aim. I read somewhere that this fall was predicted to be warmer than normal (ridging). That could extend our chances farther than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The last couple of weeks has provided a predominant ridge in the east. As long as this pattern holds we'll have tropical systems taking aim. I read somewhere that this fall was predicted to be warmer than normal (ridging). That could extend our chances farther than normal. Yeah that's true. I'm just sort of basing it off climo, but you're right....lately, we've had more ridging, so the chances may be higher this year if we remain stuck in that sort of pattern for a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, senc30 said: I'm gonna ask because of a post you made yesterday. Are you wanting a landfall on the EC? Not really. I just like weather and tracking the possibilities of events. My desired outcome here is sort of like watching Wake Forest play Georgia Tech in basketball. I couldn't care less about the outcome. I just enjoy watching a good game. In reality though, it doesn't matter what I want. The weather will do what it will do. The suspense aspect of it is kinda fun, just like if Wake is up by 1 with 20 seconds on the clock and Tech has the ball. With the case of Maria, we're already starting to get a pretty good feel for the outcome, which is becoming a blowout. Kinda takes the fun out of tracking. Yay, another suite of model runs showing all OTS. That's pretty much it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 21 minutes ago, senc30 said: I'm gonna ask because of a post you made yesterday. Are you wanting a landfall on the EC? Loaded question...99% of the people on this board want the threat to track , maybe not a cat 5 that destroys everything but lower impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Jose looking more healthy this morning...relative. Euro spot on with SLP strength. I think the odds of Jose dissipating to affect the track of Maria is almost nil. Only hope looks to be if it tracks more NE and ridge building in quicker. Slower Maria I guess could help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Loaded question...99% of the people on this board want the threat to track , maybe not a cat 5 that destroys everything but lower impact. I must be in the 1% then because living 23 miles from Topsail beach and going through the devastation of Fran, Bonnie, Bertha, Isabel, Irene, Floyd, etc. the last thing I want to see is anything even close to here. To each their own I guess. With that said, back to the topic at hand. I still think Friday will be the day that things come into focus much, much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Loaded question...99% of the people on this board want the threat to track , maybe not a cat 5 that destroys everything but lower impact. Do I want to get hit by winter storm Albatross , and get 40" of snow, yes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not really. I just like weather and tracking the possibilities of events. My desired outcome here is sort of like watching Wake Forest play Georgia Tech in basketball. I couldn't care less about the outcome. I just enjoy watching a good game. In reality though, it doesn't matter what I want. The weather will do what it will do. The suspense aspect of it is kinda fun, just like if Wake is up by 1 with 20 seconds on the clock and Tech has the ball. With the case of Maria, we're already starting to get a pretty good feel for the outcome, which is becoming a blowout. Kinda takes the fun out of tracking. Yay, another suite of model runs showing all OTS. That's pretty much it. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Do I want to get hit by winter storm Albatross , and get 40" of snow, yes!! Just move to within 40 miles right or left of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, senc30 said: I must be in the 1% then because living 23 miles from Topsail beach and going through the devastation of Fran, Bonnie, Bertha, Isabel, Irene, Floyd, etc. the last thing I want to see is anything even close to here. To each their own I guess. With that said, back to the topic at hand. I still think Friday will be the day that things come into focus much, much better Certainly understand that...you shouldn't have anything to worry about with Maria, except for some rough surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, wake4est said: Ouch. Haha sorry! I'm a Wolfpack fan, so double ouch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Down 6MB at 11AM. How will you slow forward movement of Maria affect the eventual track? I assume it will allow Jose more time to figure out if he wants to hang around or leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, senc30 said: Down 6MB at 11AM. How will you slow forward movement of Maria affect the eventual track? I assume it will allow Jose more time to figure out if he wants to hang around or leave. There's not really much to slow it down at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 54 minutes ago, senc30 said: I must be in the 1% then because living 23 miles from Topsail beach and going through the devastation of Fran, Bonnie, Bertha, Isabel, Irene, Floyd, etc. the last thing I want to see is anything even close to here. To each their own I guess. With that said, back to the topic at hand. I still think Friday will be the day that things come into focus much, much better Yea tracking and expierencing extreme weather up close are fun to alot of us on this board, self included. However I can do without on the canes and tornados. The Aftermath is just to hard and destructive on everyone. We have 4 workers from PR here with alot of family just SE of San juan by about 30 miles. They are really stressed out atm as u could iimagine. 1 of them was scheduled for vacation next week to go back, beleive it or not. They dodged Irma bullet minus lot of tree damage, power outage etc because eye stayed far enough off shore. But this is probably gonna be a direct hit like that island country took last night. Anythings possible but right now Im pretty confident Maria is OTS after PR and Virgin Islands Thanks to the path Jose is/will create. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 GFS not even close now. Go ahead and fork this one. Jose just sits in place until Maria arrives, then it dissipates as both systems head NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: GFS not even close now. Go ahead and fork this one. Jose just sits in place until Maria arrives, then it dissipates as both systems head NE. I'm not sure that it's really time to lock in any modeled depiction of the duration/location of Jose's remnants yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: GFS not even close now. Go ahead and fork this one. Jose just sits in place until Maria arrives, then it dissipates as both systems head NE. Yep looking at the loop I posted, Easy to see how Jose saves us millions of dollars in damage per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: I'm not sure that it's really time to lock in any modeled depiction of the duration/location of Jose's remnants yet. I'm in winter storm mode already. Sometimes you can just tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Don S going with 30% chance at us LF based on stats. Down from 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: GFS not even close now. Go ahead and fork this one. Jose just sits in place until Maria arrives, then it dissipates as both systems head NE. Next! Maria is just the appetizer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Euro day 6....ULL in deep south, Jose and Maria all fighting. WAR is stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2:15 PM AST Tue Sep 19 Location: 16.6°N 63.6°W Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 920 mb Max sustained: 165 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 First Euro run in a while that shifted west from it's previous run. Remanants of Jose dives into the MA coast and Maria looks to be crawling/trapped just off the SE coast. UK does something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 LOL....and Euro is heading towards NE day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Lol. JB just sent out a tweet in last hr about watching out in NE for Maria. Must have some early access. Fyi: 7.0 quake just south of Mexico City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Euro this run runs the remnants of Jose into the MA day 6 while the 0z run had a stout ptJose just east of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Most of us in the triangle need something tropical. Water level is way down. Need to pull for a weakened Maria to skirt close enough to get the outer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Another run with a different solution euro is no longer out to sea it sling shots Maria back toward the north east statesSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon - 916mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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