NCSNOW Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon still flying around and hasn't hit NE quad before 800 am bulletin. 190 mph surface is all time record. Maria is gonna make a run at it late tonight. Amazing at the pressure drops all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 CAT 5! 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 Location: 15.3°N 61.1°W Moving: WNW at 9 mph Min pressure: 925 mb Max sustained: 160 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Solak said: CAT 5! 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 Location: 15.3°N 61.1°W Moving: WNW at 9 mph Min pressure: 925 mb Max sustained: 160 mph Omg, what a monster. Those poor people in the path of Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Wonder how many times we've had two or more Cat 5s in the Atlantic. Probably more than I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Wonder how many times we've had two or more Cat 5s in the Atlantic. Probably more than I would think. I'm still convinced Jose made it to Cat 5 between recon missions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Possibly especially and only when he was East of the leeward islands undergoing RI his self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, senc30 said: I'm still convinced Jose made it to Cat 5 between recon missions. Might have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Will be interesting to see who wins the modeling of Jose...on day 6 Euro still shows what looks like a cat 1 and GFS shows remnant low. Ultimately probably wont make to big a deal of landfall with Maria but interesting none the less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Jose was being talked about on model runs coming off coast of Africa back on August 30th. Got his first advisory Sept 5th. When the 0z models run on Sept 20th here shortly he'll still be on the hour 200+ plus frames. Swear this storms got 9 lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Jose was being talked about on model runs coming off coast of Africa back on August 30th. Got his first advisory Sept 5th. When the 0z models run on Sept 20th here shortly he'll still be on the hour 200+ plus frames. Swear this storms got 9 lives. The plane in Jose found a mess.....how well he holds up the next 48-72 hrs is a ? for sure, I am surprised they left him a cane at 11, they haven't found any winds at the surface to support that in the last two HH flights.....we wont know much until the models figure him out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 Latest GFS is a case in point to my previous post it was more SW with Maria but last run it had Jose go poof, now in the same time frame Jose is 983 and much closer and will most likely pull Mari well OTS....so this will be a frustrating week of almost useless model runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 This run the gfs is wanting to connect the ridge over the east and the warSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Hr 168 starts the recurve ots.. I think it will be a few more days when models actually figure out that Jose won't be as strong... I know we are over a week out but most model concensus leads to Maria staying over open water.. Not making a forecasts as there's still alot of time and we saw how models went back and forth at this range for irma.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 With a weakened, almost non-existent Jose AND a massive ridge of high pressure building east, how does this thing stay away from the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 I give it 60% chance to miss at this point.....there is still way to many unknowns but the modeling suggest its not 50/50 since OTS is the consensus in the models....hell the CMC just went so far OTS Maria almost hits Bermuda.....still it all hinges on Jose and just what exactly happens to him..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Looking at the 500 mb charts there appears to be a trough moving in over the lakes which helps kick Maria away from land..Many things leaning against a western trend.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Looking at the 500 mb charts there appears to be a trough moving in over the lakes which helps kick Maria away from land..Many things leaning against a western trend.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Its 8-9 days out the 12Z run had a completely different look at 500, there are just to many things for the models to figure out....here is the 12Z and 00Z panels those are pretty big differences....especially given they are runs 12 hrs apart....if there is going to be a trend back to a landfall it wont happen till Thurs or Fri outside of a few random runs..... 12Z 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 06Z GFS is pretty much inline with the last few runs, east of Hatteras by a few hundred miles.....its all up to Jose.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Basically a Hurricane has a good chance to dictate if we(NC Coast) get hit by a hurricane or not. I just don't see the Jose situation resolving itself until probably Friday which makes for a long 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I just don't see how they have Jose deepening as its moving over colder waters up north.. Especially the way it was sheared and the amount of dry air it ingested the last 24hrs... Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, timnc910 said: I just don't see how they have Jose deepening as its moving over colder waters up north.. Especially the way it was sheared and the amount of dry air it ingested the last 24hrs... Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk baroclinic processes......he wont be tropical anymore, that said how strong and exactly where he tracks will be huge for Maria and her future track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 Go watch the 06Z GFS run and watch Jose from hr 54 to hr 168....if Jose isnt sitting there doing those weird loops barely moving for 4-5 days then Maria comes further west IMO....Jose either needs to move more south or stall hard for Maria to miss. The models do totally support just that happening right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Fairly good consensus from the 0z runs on a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Maria following Jose's path up the atlantic...it's like a lead blocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Go watch the 06Z GFS run and watch Jose from hr 54 to hr 168....if Jose isnt sitting there doing those weird loops barely moving for 4-5 days then Maria comes further west IMO....Jose either needs to move more south or stall hard for Maria to miss. The models do totally support just that happening right now though. Surprised at how strong Jose stays on the Euro...still fairly stout on day 6. From the 24 hour panels it really doesn't weaken that much the next few days and actuall restrengthens. But yeah, were very lucky to have Jose...otherwise it surely would be good bet that Maria could have EC impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I feel like Maria is the last decent opportunity for an EC hit this year, and the chances here are rapidly going down the drain. We may still have a window for a couple more weeks, but usually, we start to see more frequent troughing moving through this time of year, which will greatly lessen the chances of impact. Just weird how there are no troughs available to carry Jose on OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I feel like Maria is the last decent opportunity for an EC hit this year, and the chances here are rapidly going down the drain. We may still have a window for a couple more weeks, but usually, we start to see more frequent troughing moving through this time of year, which will greatly lessen the chances of impact. Just weird how there are no troughs available to carry Jose on OTS. Agree...I keep thinking Jose is just going to keep moving NE here, yeah it has a strong ridge to it's NW but the ridging to it's NE isn't that strong and with Euro keeping Jose so strong I thought the tendency of strong lows was to move poleward, not loop back south again. Jose sure loves his loops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Satellite and recon show a pretty good motion just N of West right now. Wobble, or trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Satellite is looking better as we move through the morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 51 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I feel like Maria is the last decent opportunity for an EC hit this year, and the chances here are rapidly going down the drain. We may still have a window for a couple more weeks, but usually, we start to see more frequent troughing moving through this time of year, which will greatly lessen the chances of impact. Just weird how there are no troughs available to carry Jose on OTS. I'm gonna ask because of a post you made yesterday. Are you wanting a landfall on the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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