Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: We have this covered in winter with the model performance thread . If the models flip, it becomes a new case....so the 2 cases are tracked to verification, but with different initial times. Ah, that's right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Good point Ncsnow. As much as I hate to say atm. My gut tells me FL to NC very much fair game for Maria. Its impossible for the models to get all the potentials right at this point in time. But considering Climo and Maria's location..... Texas to NC fair game. If Maria was at a higher latitude/longitude like Jose was this time last week. I'd feel more comfortable. Btw. Just got power back on around noon. But considering high water table stressed trees.. If Maria were to hit FL again. Damage will be worse no matter what cateogory she is. I hope she remains a fish storm overall. Feel bad for the people in the Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 57 minutes ago, FLweather said: Good point Ncsnow. As much as I hate to say atm. My gut tells me FL to NC very much fair game for Maria. Its impossible for the models to get all the potentials right at this point in time. But considering Climo and Maria's location..... Texas to NC fair game. If Maria was at a higher latitude/longitude like Jose was this time last week. I'd feel more comfortable. Btw. Just got power back on around noon. But considering high water table stressed trees.. If Maria were to hit FL again. Damage will be worse no matter what cateogory she is. I hope she remains a fish storm overall. Feel bad for the people in the Islands. Sorry about ur situation. Been without power twice before for over a week but was dead of winter. Couldn't stand it like yall have it in the heat and humidity. I'm not discounting ots or promoting it atm. Just asking myself question on all model runs for where Jose is gonna be 5 to 10 days out and what strength etc. it's wise to be cautious with how all models initialize both storms when trying to figure out steering H5 that far out in time. Let's all hope we can avoid a hit . It's 50/50 imo and I'll have more confidence by Friday if my 2 favs are still saying ots. Euro, ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Cat 4 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 Location: 15.1°N 60.7°W Moving: WNW at 9 mph Min pressure: 950 mb Max sustained: 130 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Thanks. No pun intended. But you're right about model initialization. If it's not right from the start then the whole run is off But my point is I don't think Jose will help with anything relative. That image you posted shows a clear view what's happening and probably happen. Models showing a huge trough developing in the LR on the WC with a lot of baginess in the East. Its clear and evident that the ridge axis is dominate for most of the Atlantic and GOM. Where it goes from here is anybody's guess. I just find it hard Jose will pull her north into PR and DR. The path of least resistance would be more likely south of PR and DR. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Well, lets see what the 18Z holds for us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 FWIW, the 18Z initialized at 968mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Out to 54, track is basically the same. Strength is a little stronger compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Touch N and stronger at 78. Jose just a touch stronger as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Already initialized too low for Jose and too high for Maria. This 18z run of goofus garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, FLweather said: Already initialized too low for Jose and too high for Maria. This 18z run of goofus garbage May be but out to 90 the track is basically the same as the 12Z although 20MB lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Certainly East at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 If a model can't get hour 00 right how in this world can we expect it to be right at hour 102? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: If a model can't get hour 00 how in this world can we expect it to be right at hour 102? Agreed. Neither the EURO or GFS seems to be able to inialize correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, senc30 said: Agreed. Neither the EURO or GFS seems to be able to inialize correctly. Exactly. How deep the stom is can mean the difference in an EC landfall or 300 miles OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 This may get deleted but the national board is a joke. Glad this one ain't like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I believe it's been established that initialization pressure being wrong isnt a reason to toss a model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, LithiaWx said: I believe it's been established that initialization pressure being wrong isnt a reason to toss a model run. If it was, there would never be a model run that didn't get tossed. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, LithiaWx said: I believe it's been established that initialization pressure being wrong isnt a reason to toss a model run. Got that study number handy? It makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 At hr 150 on 18z the war is building in more than the 12z Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 It will be a miss this time most likely already east of last run and moving a bit more north....not realy much if any difference in how the model is handling Jose either so really these runs are fun but until we get to Thurs/Fri they probably will fluctuate quite a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Got that study number handy? It makes all the difference. Well, it's in both Irma threads. The one here in the SE and the main thread. Digging that out would be a nightmare. You can take my word or not I can't justify digging that far but it was a degreed met who opined that and he had support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Got that study number handy? It makes all the difference. Not really, Euro/Ukie had Irma way wrong ( much to high ) on many runs and still crushed the GFS etc who had the pressures closer to reality....if Jose is there Maria goes OTS, if Jose is very weak or not there then she might come in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 18z is stronger with Jose so is further east.. I don't get how Jose can hang on that long in such hostile environment Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Took a little jog NNW at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Went NNW until 216 and is now moving NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 We have a cat 5, be interested to see recon confirm. But sat don't lie. There's and island , not sure of name that's about to get plastered. Maria is a buzzsaw in every sense of the word and fixing to go right over this island with 150 plus sustained. Scary thing is its still RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just found 926MB and 160 winds in NW quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 There you have it Cat 5 ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 745 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND MARIA AS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane Maria has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued at 800 PM AST (0000 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory for Maria. SUMMARY OF 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Dominica is the island name thats about to get destroyed. Over 70,000 people live there and has 4,000 ft highest point. Not very wealthy but man is it beatiful. Be suprised if we don't learn of death tolls in 100s from here in a few days. Pray I'm wrong. This island has only been hit directly by 1 major hurricane before in its history, was high 3 low cat 4. That's remarkable considering where they sit. I'm sure they are hurricane savy with building codes etc, but cat 5s still RI prior to landfall is a whole other animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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