Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Hurricane Maria


downeastnc

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 470
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Good point Ncsnow. 

As much as I hate to say atm. My gut tells me FL to NC very much fair game for Maria.  Its impossible for the models to get all the potentials right at this point in time. But considering Climo and Maria's location..... Texas to NC fair game. If Maria was at a higher latitude/longitude like Jose was this time last week. I'd feel more comfortable. Btw. Just got power back on around noon. But considering high water table stressed trees.. If Maria were to hit FL again. Damage will be worse no matter what cateogory she is. I hope she remains a fish storm overall. Feel bad for the people in the Islands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Good point Ncsnow. 

As much as I hate to say atm. My gut tells me FL to NC very much fair game for Maria.  Its impossible for the models to get all the potentials right at this point in time. But considering Climo and Maria's location..... Texas to NC fair game. If Maria was at a higher latitude/longitude like Jose was this time last week. I'd feel more comfortable. Btw. Just got power back on around noon. But considering high water table stressed trees.. If Maria were to hit FL again. Damage will be worse no matter what cateogory she is. I hope she remains a fish storm overall. Feel bad for the people in the Islands.

Sorry about ur situation. Been without power twice before for over a week but was dead of winter. Couldn't stand it like yall have it in the heat and humidity. 

I'm not discounting ots or promoting it atm. Just asking myself question on all model runs for where Jose is gonna be 5 to 10 days out and what strength etc. it's wise to be cautious with how all models initialize both storms when trying to figure out steering H5 that far out in time. Let's all hope we can avoid a hit . It's 50/50 imo and I'll have more confidence by Friday if my 2 favs are still saying ots. Euro, ukie

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks. No pun intended. But you're right about model initialization. If it's not right from the start then the whole run is off But my point is I don't think Jose will help with anything relative. That image you posted shows a clear view what's happening and probably happen.  Models showing a huge trough developing in the LR on the WC with a lot of baginess in the East. Its clear and evident that the ridge axis is dominate for most of the Atlantic and GOM. Where it goes from here is anybody's guess. I just find it hard Jose will pull her north into PR and DR. The path of least resistance would be more likely south of PR and DR. But we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Got that study number handy? It makes all the difference. 

Well,  it's in both Irma threads.  The one here in the SE and the main thread.  Digging that out would be a nightmare.   You can take my word or not I can't justify digging that far but it was a degreed met who opined that and he had support. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Got that study number handy? It makes all the difference. 

Not really, Euro/Ukie had Irma way wrong ( much to high ) on many runs and still crushed the GFS etc who had the pressures closer to reality....if Jose is there Maria goes OTS, if Jose is very weak or not there then she might come in....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There you have it Cat 5

 

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
745 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND MARIA AS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Maria has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  A special advisory
will be issued at 800 PM AST (0000 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Maria.


SUMMARY OF 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake

NNNN
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dominica is the island name thats about to get destroyed. Over 70,000 people live there and has 4,000 ft highest point. Not very wealthy but man is it beatiful. Be suprised if we don't learn of death tolls in 100s from here in a few days. Pray I'm wrong. This island has only been hit  directly by 1 major hurricane before in its history, was high 3 low cat 4. That's remarkable considering where they sit. I'm sure they are hurricane savy with building codes etc, but cat 5s still RI prior to landfall is a whole other animal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...