packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: It's too soon to say for sure, but we're not 16 days out anymore either, and we're seeing fewer and fewer model runs even close to the coast now. I'm very skeptical of a SE hit at this point. Jose needs to dissipate or recurve very soon for Maria to have a chance to strike the lower US, and that is looking more unlikely with each model cycle. Yep, agree...EPS has shifted east past couple of runs. EPS and GEFS are mostly in agreement on track of just off the coast. Either Jose rapidly weakens for ridge to build or it moves NE like the CMC or it weakens rapidly and remnants head inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 Jose is a mess and how much longer he can last is something the models will have a poor handle on, if he dies quickly or goes further east then expect a more westward shift with Maria in the models.....we are still talking 7-10 days out....way to soon to write off Maria....it will be Thursday or Friday when the models have a better handle on the Jose endgame before we can start taking model runs to heart IMO..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Jose is a mess and how much longer he can last is something the models will have a poor handle on, if he dies quickly or goes further east then expect a more westward shift with Maria in the models.....we are still talking 7-10 days out....way to soon to write off Maria....it will be Thursday or Friday when the models have a better handle on the Jose endgame before we can start taking model runs to heart IMO..... GFS has Jose getting down to 953mb tomorrow. Got some work to do if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Something seems wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: GFS has Jose getting down to 953mb tomorrow. Got some work to do if that's the case. yeah, the GFS is whacked on pressures overall across the board....think it has Maria in the 910's off the SE coast one run....on the 12Z run at 60 hrs if has Maria which will be a Cat 4 by then at 961, and it has Jose as a 964 lol so yeah.....Jose only has one way to go really and thats down. Once he gets north of the GS and the shear turns more westerly he will decouple even more and die. The question then is how strong of a extra tropical system is left and where does it go...and this is all 4-5 days down the road.....so once Maria gets to the Bahamas we will have a better picture.....until then its hard to give a model run that has Jose at 975 in 3 days much credence especially since Jose's pressure is already above that and there is really a almost zero chance he strengthens from here on out, and will probably lose another 10-15mb at least over the next 24-36 hrs.... The 12Z GFS actually has Jose stronger at 3+ days than the 06Z did so the entire run is kinda trash cause chances are that Jose will be much weaker....thus how the players interact will be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 12Z GFS out to 126 has Maria somewhat west of the 0Z and 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Goofus gonna have EC hit this run or come real close me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, downeastnc said: yeah, the GFS is whacked on pressures overall across the board....think it has Maria in the 910's off the SE coast one run....on the 12Z run at 60 hrs if has Maria which will be a Cat 4 by then at 961, and it has Jose as a 964 lol so yeah.....Jose only has one way to go really and thats down. Once he gets north of the GS and the shear turns more westerly he will decouple even more and die. The question then is how strong of a extra tropical system is left and where does it go...and this is all 4-5 days down the road.....so once Maria gets to the Bahamas we will have a better picture.....until then its hard to give a model run that has Jose at 975 in 3 days much credence especially since Jose's pressure is already above that and there is really a almost zero chance he strengthens from here on out, and will probably lose another 10-15mb at least over the next 24-36 hrs.... The 12Z GFS actually has Jose stronger at 3+ days than the 06Z did so the entire run is kinda trash cause chances are that Jose will be much weaker....thus how the players interact will be as well. 12zUK and CMC are way east...heading towards Bermuda. GFS is wrong in handling of Jose yet it's the closest one to landfall... If the ridge over NY on the GFS shifts east a little it would be ugly for someone on the SE coast. Still a good spot for a landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Goofus gonna have EC hit this run or come real close me thinks ULL over central GOM might do the trick and pull her NW...going to be much closer though....still its so far out its a crap shoot any of the placements are right.....also LOL at 917 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 very little room to escape, Ridges havent bridge yet at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 GFS runs into a brick wall...nothing to pull it inland or the ridge over the NE needs to shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 hr 192 eyes on NC coast just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Due north at 210. Going to smash Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Due north at 210. Going to smash Hatteras. Gonna be Emerald Isle..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Yep 210 926 mlb lol thats Cat 4/5 territory and rocking the CNC Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Actually went NW at 216. Looks to hit Cape Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Gonna be Emerald Isle..... Yep, 222 basically stalls right offshore...slight NNW motion. Wow. 928 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Gonna beat the 2005 Ace if this happens, already ahead of it or even atm. whod evevr thunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, 222 basically stalls right offshore...slight NNW motion. Wow. 928 MB Yeah RIP Crystal Coast....stalls mean turns though so its gonna technically "miss" it looks like movng NE next frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 At 228 it went east after a basic stall from 216-228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Yeah RIP Crystal Coast.... And at 228, it starts moving east. LOL Basically sits 25-50 or so miles off the coast for 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: And at 228, it starts moving east. LOL Basically sits 25-50 or so miles off the coast for 12 hours or so. Surge would be ridiculous.....she was moving at a good clip to then slams on the brakes right before landfall so thats typical......still this run should lessen the oh Maria is OTS thinking some..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: Surge would be ridiculous..... Yep. Gone at 240. So it comes right up to the coast and contours the coastline and heads right out east, never making landfall. Fun to pbp an 8 day hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 So are we seeing a trend back west? Strap in and buckle up. This will be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Don't believe it ever made landfall. At 240 and moving ENE away from the coast. Basically gives the NC coast 24 hours of rain, wind and surge but never makes landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, Regan said: So are we seeing a trend back west? Strap in and buckle up. This will be a long week. For the Op GFS yes, it has been shifting further SW with the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 And Allan just tweeted out the GFS "trend"... https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/909819813144465409 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Not liking the West shift on the GFS. Have to see what the others do now. All depends on Jose, though. Hopefully, he'll hang around long enough to kick Maria to the curb and she'll go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I can already smell the panic from a couple of my coworkers once they discover that this exists. I'll just watch from the sidelines until Puerto Rico and Hispaniola are in the rear view mirror and we have a better idea what Jose's fate will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Big shift SW through day 5-6 with GEFS....putting Bahama's at risk. Taking Jose more NE on this GEFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.