Hurricane Maria

[Chinook]

not related to the meteorology of the storm, I was looking at GOES-16 visible images on the edge of the storm in NC and SC. Perhaps the streaks in this image are from expansive contrails that grew wider and wider after jets passed by.

[ncforecaster89]

As I posted in the main "Maria" thread, hurricane Earl delivered HF wind gusts to the outer-most Outer Banks in September of 2010.  It was very similar in size (HF winds reached 70 nm from the center) and the forecast intensity of Maria as it reaches its closest approach.  To be specific, it got within 90 nm of Hatteras Island and Nags Head, while moving from 35.3 N 74.0 W to 35.8 N 73.7 W.  It was a 100 mph category-two at 35.3 and a 85 mph category-one at 35.8 N.  

I mentioned this to provide a general barometer/guideline as to what coordinates Maria must reach in order to deliver possible HF wind gusts to the NC Outer Banks; all things being equal.      

[LithiaWx]

11PM she’s down to a 90mph Cat 1. 

 

[downeastnc]

She continues to go poof as she rides up over Jose's wake.....the west trend is gone and she will miss by a good hundred miles at least it appears....she does have TS force winds well out from the center and has a large wind field so TS conditions will still be seen on the OBX and waves and overwash will still be a issues. 

[Moonhowl]

15 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She continues to go poof as she rides up over Jose's wake.....the west trend is gone and she will miss by a good hundred miles at least it appears....she does have TS force winds well out from the center and has a large wind field so TS conditions will still be seen on the OBX and waves and overwash will still be a issues. 

Great news; looking like NC dodged another bullet; unfortunately many others were not so lucky.

[downeastnc]

Little left/west wobble with Maria, kinda surprised me to see it....some of the models did have a sharp left turn several days ago and brought the center really close to Hatteras, and many ens had that sharp turn with the center making it into at least the sounds....be nuts to see that verify after everyone has jumped on the well east of Hatteras train. The water is warmer that way too....still the wobble is only a few frames at this point so most likely just a wobble and she goes back N to NNE soon.....

[downeastnc]

last few fixes from the HH's are interesting at least...

[SteveVa]

That is interesting, but not unexpected. Isn't it normal for a system to wobble a lot when the steering currents start to break down?

 

[downeastnc]

Sure but that is a heck of a wobble....none of the model tracks really get her much west of where she is right now, if she gets to 74/75W that will greatly increase the impact on the OBX.....not to mention the GS and higher water temps could help her maintain....maybe she is gonna do a little loop for us....

[SteveVa]

Agree. I do hope I see impacts (not moral but whatever). A very close call is stll on the table considering the 48hr track error can be 30-50mi and a shift of 50 miles to the west would mean a big change for the OBX.

[timnc910]

Along with her western wobble she seems to be getting a bit more organized per water vapor... it looks like the storms to its east is trying to wrap back around the west side.. this may be just noise but fun to now cast and compare what the system is actually doing compared to models and nhc forecast

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk

[avalanche]

Those of us in central NC are in very dire need for some rain. Some are wishing for the TS to push out to sea, and I get that, as 50 mph winds can cause some issues from time to time...the majority of North Carolinians are desperate for some measurable rain. Given the TS looks to stay well off shore, it may be a week before the mere possibility of rain arrives, and we are heading into the dry season under a drought.

[downeastnc]

23 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Along with her western wobble she seems to be getting a bit more organized per water vapor... it looks like the storms to its east is trying to wrap back around the west side.. this may be just noise but fun to now cast and compare what the system is actually doing compared to models and nhc forecast

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk
 

Yeah its extremely unlikely that this becomes her new heading and she hits NC head on, there is zero support for that to happen....though I wonder what her weakening and losing the higher storm tops does to the steering on her.....being a lower more shallow system may change up how she moves versus a deeper stronger system. At this point its probably too late to change the outcome much but if she did move mostly NW from here for awhile, she would get close enough to really rough up the OBX.....and get back over warmer waters so maybe at least maintain some kind of core....

[alhooks13]

On 9/24/2017 at 8:53 PM, Chinook said:

not related to the meteorology of the storm, I was looking at GOES-16 visible images on the edge of the storm in NC and SC. Perhaps the streaks in this image are from expansive contrails that grew wider and wider after jets passed by.

Very likely. I notice a large contrail late SUnday afternoon from a northbound jet flying over the OBX.

[LithiaWx]

Down to 75mph,  forecast to become a TS today/tonight.  TS force winds look to stay just off the NC coast per the NWS latest update.  Good news all around unless you were looking for a hit.  I’m sure the beaches are still getting battered though. 

[downeastnc]

2 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Down to 75mph,  forecast to become a TS today/tonight.  TS force winds look to stay just off the NC coast per the NWS latest update.  Good news all around unless you were looking for a hit.  I’m sure the beaches are still getting battered though. 

A few gauges on the south side of the Pamlico Sound

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=ctin7

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=hcgn7

[LithiaWx]

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

A few gauges on the south side of the Pamlico Sound

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=ctin7

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=hcgn7

Big expansive system is probably making this worse than a small stronger cane would do in this position. 

[downeastnc]

6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Big expansive system is probably making this worse than a small stronger cane would do in this position. 

50 mph TS Dennis put more water up the Pamlico River than any other system on record ( Irene tied or beat several locations ) because he had a large circulation from his hurricane days and he was crawling when he finally came in....

[downeastnc]

Just to show how little it takes to move the water around in the Pamlico, here is the river data the Tar River north of Greenville, the Tar becomes the Pamlico at Washington 25 miles downstream and that is what enters into the Pamlico Sound 35 more miles east of Washington...so even this far inland the river is still affected by the tide when its low....as the graph shows with the regular rises and falls, but once the NE/E wind starts up that stops and the river stops being able to drain and the water backs up....so even though it hasnt rained in days other than a few showers today the river went up this much...just from the wind tide in the sound blowing water up the river preventing water even 50 miles inland from draining...add 10-15" of rain coming down in 12-24 hrs and you can see how things flood so fast. You got water falling from the skies and rivers flowing backwards. Winds over the sounds never really got much over 35-40 mph today and the storm is moving out so water levels should return to normal quickly. 

[goldsborosnow]

44 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Just to show how little it takes to move the water around in the Pamlico, here is the river data the Tar River north of Greenville, the Tar becomes the Pamlico at Washington 25 miles downstream and that is what enters into the Pamlico Sound 35 more miles east of Washington...so even this far inland the river is still affected by the tide when its low....as the graph shows with the regular rises and falls, but once the NE/E wind starts up that stops and the river stops being able to drain and the water backs up....so even though it hasnt rained in days other than a few showers today the river went up this much...just from the wind tide in the sound blowing water up the river preventing water even 50 miles inland from draining...add 10-15" of rain coming down in 12-24 hrs and you can see how things flood so fast. You got water falling from the skies and rivers flowing backwards. Winds over the sounds never really got much over 35-40 mph today and the storm is moving out so water levels should return to normal quickly. 

That may have something to do with the release from the Rock Mount reservoir this past Sunday. Not sure why they did it unless they had to perform maintenance. Not discounting your point though. A steady East wind will back it right up.

[downeastnc]

Yeah could have been that, in fact that probably makes more sense I thought that was kind of high but the timing was right on the money for when the wind started up over the sounds lol....and gauges downstream all stopped going tidal which is usually a sign we got a wind surge....and the timing all matches well for when the wind started up.