shaggy Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Looking at the UKIE it lines us pretty nice with the 6z .. The war might now be building in as fast because Lee has regained hurricane status and might be causing some issues with it.. It is in the position where the war would be building. Also it could be the trough is moving in faster which halts maria from making the turn towards the coast... If the euro starts showing this today then we can rule obx out of play besides rough seas Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Well per yesterday's nhc disco they will be getting some G4 flights in today out in front of Maria.I would guess if we don't see some changes after that then it's safe to say the threat is decreasing for hurricane conditions on the obx. Still think she gets close enough to give them TS force stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 12z hurricane models tightly clustered about 100-150mi offshore. GFS lost the anomalous hook left, but about half of its member have either landfall or a very close approach (<50mi) How far west it goes in the next 24-36 hours is the key because most members landfalling are already significantly west from the rest of the pack at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Are we in that magic moment when the models are going to dance like last days of Irma? She's west. She's east. She's west and so on. Makes me wonder as this draws out and nobody gets a good grasp until the day before (given the unknowns and splitting hairs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 1 minute ago, SteveVa said: 12z hurricane models tightly clustered about 100-150mi offshore. GFS lost the anomalous hook left, but about half of its member have either landfall or a very close approach (<50mi) How far west it goes in the next 24-36 hours is the key because most members landfalling are already significantly west from the rest of the pack at that time range. She is already crossing 73W and she isnt even quite to 29N yet so assuming no sudden N to NNE heading change she will be on the far west edge of all guidance by this afternoon....the 06Z GFS never takes her any further west than she is right now really....it takes her more or less due north just east of 73W...the GFS ens that crossed west of 73W did shift east quite a bit at 06Z and barely hit the OBX so maybe we see a continuation of that....however I think for that to verify the north turn has to happen by this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 No more western turnSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Last frames on the water vapor has maria resuming a NNE motion Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Last frames on the water vapor has maria resuming a NNE motion Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk The motion on the floater looks NNW to me, its hard to say since the eye is mishapen and wobbling around but you put lat and lon on and its a general NNW motion....with a bit of a west wobble if anything http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The motion on the floater looks NNW to me, its hard to say since the eye is mishapen and wobbling around but you put lat and lon on and its a general NNW motion....with a bit of a west wobble if anything http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/flash-rbtop-long.html Looks like The eye went east for a frame or two and got roughly 72.6w before a hard left wobble and the center is almost entirely west of 73 now. Just the typical wobbles we see with hurricanes the general motion is still NNW to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Yes I apologize I was looking at an hour loop of satellite via weather bug. When I checked the in fared loop on goes i saw the jump west and the NW heading Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Yes I apologize I was looking at an hour loop of satellite via weather bug. When I checked the in fared loop on goes i saw the jump west and the NW heading Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk the eye is ragged and she is moving slow but the HH is finding her moving NNW, the question still is how strong does the ridge to her NE get....the ens that have her this far west say its strong enough to get her to NC but honestly its one of those cases where its gonna be that she can go either way right up till she hits or misses....the NHC never takes her west of 73.5 and they dont get her that far west until 34N which is about even with Cape Lookout.....she needs to pretty much stay north from here to never go west of 73.5W, especially since she is pretty much at 73W now and not even to 30N. None of that means she is gonna hit by itself but it does mean the storm is west of guidance a good bit and most of the guidance that is that far west says she hits NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Slightly and I mean slightly west at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 At 36, it looks like she jogs NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 When will they resume 3 hour updates? I figured that would be standard with a storm that could potentially threatened the NC Coast within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 At 84 she never makes the west turn and is heading east now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: the eye is ragged and she is moving slow but the HH is finding her moving NNW, the question still is how strong does the ridge to her NE get....the ens that have her this far west say its strong enough to get her to NC but honestly its one of those cases where its gonna be that she can go either way right up till she hits or misses....the NHC never takes her west of 73.5 and they dont get her that far west until 34N which is about even with Cape Lookout.....she needs to pretty much stay north from here to never go west of 73.5W, especially since she is pretty much at 73W now and not even to 30N. None of that means she is gonna hit by itself but it does mean the storm is west of guidance a good bit and most of the guidance that is that far west says she hits NC.... Bastardi says nw wobble. Not east. You are correct it seems. Ragged eye is hard to read. He also states that he doesn't buy the gfs not wanting to go west. I don't think he expects eye landfall, but I think he's feeling it'll turn west. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Yeah its tough to see her getting to NC based on the model runs the last few runs, they just dont have the ridge strong enough to push her west....if she was heading more NW than NNW she would have a shot but unless that ridge is under modeled this is gonna be a solid miss....we should be able to tell fairly soon almost all models halt any kind of west movement by this afternoon and she is more or less N or NNE from 30N on up and honestly she has to go NW and get to 74/75W by the time she is at 32-33N for me to think the model Op runs have it wrong and the western ens members that show landfall are right.... CMC is back west a tad at 12Z ( still 60 miles east of Hatteras ) and normally its a meh model but it picked up on the closer to coast track first so its gets a little more respect.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Looking at the model verification on U of Albany sites it's clear GFS is doing really well with Maria. She is maybe a touch west than it's forecast. The Euro however, has been west of Maria's actual position. I would expect 12z Euro to come slightly east. I think we're locked in on impact at OBX/far SE VA. Soon we'll find out will it be Jose-like impact or something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Bastardi tweeted this image. I have to agree, she's been moving nnw. Not due north as NHC has been posting since last night. That's more than a wobble too. Imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Newest center fix is at 72.98W Pressure down to 943mb. Look at the tropicaltidbits recon page, seems she still has a "steady" NNW motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 47 minutes ago, Regan said: Bastardi tweeted this image. I have to agree, she's been moving nnw. Not due north as NHC has been posting since last night. That's more than a wobble too. Imo. I've never understood why the NHC does this. It's obvious, just by the coordinates they post every update that it is moving NNW but they still say N. Is there a reason why they do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Human error/disregard/new person on duty? Been saying N since 11pm I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 EURO is quicker and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, senc30 said: EURO is quicker and west Still a miss with no bend back to the left near the coast. So unless the high is stronger and some of those further left ensemble members end up being right then she should brush the obx with TS conditions at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 NHC went with TS watches from Surf City to the NC/VA border, expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Anyone got the Euro ens spaghetti plots? She also appears to be riding right up 73W with little to no W drift for a while now and if thats the case then the ens members that bring her over the NC coast or into the sounds are probably gonna be to far west....not sure there is enough ridging to push her west enough at this point....thinking any chance of me getting anything IMBY other than clouds and a few showers is dropping steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Good seeing the GFS even further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, senc30 said: Good seeing the GFS even further east. I dunno now its the outlier the Euro,CMC,, Ukie and hell even the Navgem where all much closer to the coast.....the old GFS had a bias to break down ridges to fast. Still its handled Maria better than the others so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 But king Euro! True, this could be an outlier and ditto the bias. I remember seeing that on here I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 Climo for a slow moving cane moving N up the coast that far east screams OTS....or a near miss at the closest....it will take a fairly steady NW track for Maria to get in over eastern NC or the sounds at this point....Maria is 145 miles east of Hatteras and 410 miles south so she needs to go west 1 mile for every 2.8 miles she goes north to hit that spot....if anything she has gone 10-15 miles east of her position she was at earlier this morning.....still she will feel the ridge more the further north she gets, all it takes is for her to go over or near the OBX to put a lot of eastern NC and SE VA in TS force winds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Weird about the N because I'm seeing mets here and there's saying she's still NNW. Who knows anymore. Anyway, Ocracoke island mandatory evacuation just announced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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