senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 At 102, she has been pounding the NC coast for about 18 hours with rain, wind and surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 At 108 she has started to move east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Don't what it is about the 18z run but again it's the most bullish...since yesterday's 18z run. GEFS spread...looks to be atleast half the members making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 18z GEFS QPF mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Looking at the members.... the ones that start approaching 73W tomorrow make landfall on GEFS and ones that are east of 73E stay just off the coast, more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looking at the members.... the ones that start approaching 73W tomorrow make landfall on GEFS and ones that are east of 73E stay just off the coast, more or less. Thats the key really, if she is 73/74W by the time she gets to 30-32N I bet she hits. She is on a north wobble right now but already at 72.2ish any westward component tonight into the morning would easily get her to 73 or beyond by middle of the day tomorrow when she should be near 30N. NHC doesnt have her getting to 30 N till 2am Sunday night and that seems slow. If this N wobble becomes her heading though it might mean the offshore runs are right, the ULL over the SE is drifting west though and she should be pulled more NW as that happens....so I suspect she starts drifting back west of north by morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Thats the key really, if she is 73/74W by the time she gets to 30-32N I bet she hits. She is on a north wobble right now but already at 72.2ish any westward component tonight into the morning would easily get her to 73 or beyond by middle of the day tomorrow when she should be near 30N. NHC doesnt have her getting to 30 N till 2am Sunday night and that seems slow. If this N wobble becomes her heading though it might mean the offshore runs are right, the ULL over the SE is drifting west though and she should be pulled more NW as that happens....so I suspect she starts drifting back west of north by morning.... Latest update said 72.5. I don't have access to other places but has she shifted east? Think she was 26.3 and 72.5 last update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 The last couple frames in satellite imagery shows a NNE heading.. It doesn't look like a wobble.. the latest euro kind of deviated from the whole sudden western turn as it kept maria moving almost due north as it moved off the coastSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Just now, timnc910 said: The last couple frames in satellite imagery shows a NNE heading.. It doesn't look like a wobble.. the latest euro kind of deviated from the whole sudden western turn as it kept maria moving almost due north as it moved off the coast Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Yeah I think the sudden turns are just model noise trying to figure out the track...this water vapor loops shows the SW to NE flow around the ULL crossing Cuba and shearing Maria and restricting her SW outflow, its also helping to push her N or NNE even....you can also see Jose moving pretty good now allowing the ridge to flatten out more over NE and build in, this should also help Maria turn more NW....you can see this (ULL and building ridge) is kinda squashing Maria....its gonna be close one way or the other..... If she stays far enough east then when she finally turns gradually back NW she wont be able to close the distance before the trough moves in and boots her.....so its complicated as hell per the norm for NC threats..... if the ULL moves west fast enough and Jose goes south and east fast enough and the ridge builds in and turns her NW fast enough she will be able to get NC before being booted out....like Pack showed the members that landfall NC all allow those things to happen fast enough, the misses dont. The good news is we should have a really good idea by this time tomorrow if she is east of 73W at 30ish N chances are she stays OTS or just brushes the OBX....west of that and chances go up considerably for a full on landfall over eastern NC or the OBX. The G4 missions begin tomorrow ( not sure why they didnt do some today based on models showing a threat inside of 5 days ) and this data of the shape and extent of the WAR will also help the models.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah I think the sudden turns are just model noise trying to figure out the track...this water vapor loops shows the SW to NE flow around the ULL crossing Cuba and shearing Maria and restricting her SW outflow, its also helping to push her N or NNE even....you can also see Jose moving pretty good now allowing the ridge to flatten out more over NE and build in, this should also help Maria turn more NW....you can see this (ULL and building ridge) is kinda squashing Maria....its gonna be close one way or the other..... If she stays far enough east then when she finally turns gradually back NW she wont be able to close the distance before the trough moves in and boots her.....so its complicated as hell per the norm for NC threats..... if the ULL moves west fast enough and Jose goes south and east fast enough and the ridge builds in and turns her NW fast enough she will be able to get NC before being booted out....like Pack showed the members that landfall NC all allow those things to happen fast enough, the misses dont. The good news is we should have a really good idea by this time tomorrow if she is east of 73W at 30ish N chances are she stays OTS or just brushes the OBX....west of that and chances go up considerably for a full on landfall over eastern NC or the OBX. The G4 missions begin tomorrow ( not sure why they didnt do some today based on models showing a threat inside of 5 days ) and this data of the shape and extent of the WAR will also help the models.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html This is why I am on this site. Thanks for the info. So basically, with what you said, I'm keying on 73-73.5W and 30-31N and seeing where it gets to first. That's good to know for a nob like me. Helps me focus on things better. Much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 1 minute ago, senc30 said: This is why I am on this site. Thanks for the info. So basically, with what you said, I'm keying on 73-73.5W and 30-31N and seeing where it gets to first. That's good to know for a nob like me. Helps me focus on things better. Much appreciated Well its not foolproof, but over the last few days the majority of ensembles that make landfall on NC go over or west of 73W by 30ishN.....the maps Pack posted above break it out beautifully...that doesnt mean if its at 72.5W it cant still hit or that something at 75W 30N cant miss.....but timing wise in order to be 73W by 30N the model ens that do that ALL have the pieces in place to allow a NC landfall so it is a eyebrow raiser for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Well its not foolproof, but over the last few days the majority of ensembles that make landfall on NC go over or west of 73W by 30ishN.....the maps Pack posted above break it out beautifully...that doesnt mean if its at 72.5W it cant still hit or that something at 75W 30N cant miss.....but timing wise in order to be 73W by 30N the model ens that do that ALL have the pieces in place to allow a NC landfall so it is a eyebrow raiser for sure. Of course. Anything can change but it is nice to be able to have something to focus in as a reference point going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 She is moving NNE right now according to center fixes from the HH's, so that will make it harder to get to 73W....pressure down to 944mb but surface winds not reflecting that at all...shear has been hurting her structure with the core it must be keeping her from ramping her winds up, she looks better on sat though, storms all the way around the center so maybe she is finally getting it together and we see her winds come up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Well per verification scores the GFS is the leader with Maria, easily beating out the Euro at 96 and 120 hours. The NNE wobble is due to convection rotating around and I expect next recon pass shows a N or NNW heading resuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Perhaps a NW wobble last frame or two, these will become important tomorrow....hell her eye is half a degree wide lol...speaking of eyes she is trying to clear out her eye yet again, though she struggles to maintain steady storm production...she looks very much like a typical hurricane for that part of the basin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Looks like suddenly the NHC is beginning to give up on the outbanks as off 11pm. However, I wasn't expecting that from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Out to 30 and just a touch faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Out to 42, east and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 At 60, east and west are the same just a touch faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Definitely east of 18z... She still skirts the outer banks.. It seems like the trend of the recent runs today has been to the eastSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 At 84 it looks like she is just faster and not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 At 90, it is just faster still. Not any further east or west. Hanging right off the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 At 96, she can't be 15 miles off the eastern most outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Definitely not east. If anything it's faster and maybe a tiny tiny bit NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Compare your 0z and 18z frames you can the the NE shiftSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 At 108 she heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Just now, timnc910 said: Compare your 0z and 18z frames you can the the NE shift Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk I didn't think it came that close to the eastern most outer Banks these runs. I zoomed in on an open look at it couldn't have been 15 miles from the wall landfalling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 6 hours ago, senc30 said: I didn't think it came that close to the eastern most outer Banks these runs. I zoomed in on an open look at it couldn't have been 15 miles from the wall landfalling O6z doesn't have the left hook towards the coast so she stays a decent ways offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 And the east trend continues. . The 12 euro yesterday showed almost the same solution as the 6z gfs did this morning. . The 0z euro did come back with the turn towards nc but it can easily correct east at 12z again today.. the cmc has trended east aswell as the hwrfSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Looking at the UKIE it lines us pretty nice with the 6z .. The war might now be building in as fast because Lee has regained hurricane status and might be causing some issues with it.. It is in the position where the war would be building. Also it could be the trough is moving in faster which halts maria from making the turn towards the coast... If the euro starts showing this today then we can rule obx out of play besides rough seasSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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