HKY_WX Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 The trends since Thursday are what's important and Maria has verified west of the NHC track many times since mid week. I think the overall track/speed today will be critical as far as its chances for landfall. If Jose's impacts on the trough are indeed being modelled weaker and weaker, we should see it in the track of Maria today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Quite a few ensemble members of the gfs/euro have this hitting far eastern NC. Looks here like more on the euro. The king... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Quite a few ensemble members of the gfs/euro have this hitting far eastern NC. That's quite a few members of the eps that hit west into eastern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The trends since Thursday are what's important and Maria has verified west of the NHC track many times since mid week. I think the overall track/speed today will be critical as far as it's chances for landfall. If Jose's impacts on the trough are indeed being modelled weaker and weaker, we should see it in the track of Maria today. Good to see you on here, Brandon! I'm actually on my way to the OBX now so I fully expect the islands to be wiped from the face of the planet in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Good to see you on here, Brandon! I'm actually on my way to the OBX now so I fully expect the islands to be wiped from the face of the planet in a few days. You too man. Lol, let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Seems fairly likely that Maria is gonna at least give the OBX TS conditions.....still plenty of time for this to trend more west or east.....there were a lot of people especially in the main thread that wrote Maria off and pretty much said a east coast landfall was impossible etc etc etc, and while it might not make landfall it seems more likely Maria will at least have a direct impact on the OBX and if she goes west another 100 miles even well into eastern NC and the VA beaches....this goes to show that making definitive statements concerning a hurricane track 6 days out is as dumb as locking in on a snowfall weenie map in the same range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 I live exactly 101 miles due west from the easternmost point of the OBX. So for me just how far west she comes will make a huge difference in my weather lol...Typically we dont see much here from a near miss on the OBX, so as currently modeled conditions inland would be fine.....if it did the Navgem track right over Lookout that would be more Irene like and if she had a big ole wind field, with a big ole eye like Irene would be a decent hit for eastern NC with widespread TS winds inland to probably I95...we also see a inland wind maximum with stall hits like that as the trough comes in.....anything west of that and obviously it gets worse over eastern and even central NC. Typically NW track storms tend to ramp up a bit coming in as well....not sure how bad shear will be but IF Maria did come in and make a legit landfall on mainland NC and get as far west as say Emerald Isle and be moving slowly like the models have her moving she would be over virgin deep warm water for at least 24 hrs before landfall...so a 100-110 mph cane wouldnt be out of the question IMO. This water vapor loop is pretty telling as to why the models have shifted and why its probably coming close if not into NC...Jose fades and moves east, ridge building in stronger over NE, ULL that seems stronger than modeled diving WSW towards the GOM, sharper trough out west....looks like the setup we see in other NW tracking landfalling storms.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Out to 30, 12Z mirrors 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Out to 48, 12Z says she is a touch faster and a touch east as compared to the 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Out to 72, noticably faster but east/west is unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 GFS is seeing something to make it move faster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Only real difference that run was he GFS seeing something to make Maria faster. Not sure what that means for down the road but it looks like she slowed down as of the 11AM update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Faster Maria should allow her to come further north, and she did. I live about 90 miles NNW from the easternmost point of the OBX (I take Rodanthe as the easternmost point) so I should be feeling the impacts of Maria if these trends continue. I was ready to write off Maria, but if she keeps speeding up and if the ridge builds more, I'll be very much in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, SteveVa said: Faster Maria should allow her to come further north, and she did. I live about 90 miles NNW from the easternmost point of the OBX (I take Rodanthe as the easternmost point) so I should be feeling the impacts of Maria if these trends continue. I was ready to write off Maria, but if she keeps speeding up and if the ridge builds more, I'll be very much in the game. Jose is weaker than modeled and each run reflects that. The ridge is verifying a touch stronger than modeled. With the upper air data and G4 missions starting tonight we should see a clearer picture tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 1h1 hour ago Here are the 11 AM Sep. 23 Key Messages for Hurricane #Maria http://hurricanes.gov/#Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Meh I just need to stay out of the main thread lol....models are trending back east a bit.....they all have a NE jog or keep her right on 71/72W until she is pretty far north and this keeps her offshore once the NW turn happens....so things to look for is for her being more west of track short term say 24-36 hrs, if she is 74/75 west by 30N then I think she hits NC head on, if she is still out at 72/73W at 30N then brushing the OBX is probably as far west as she can get. I still think the 12Z are giving Jose to much credit....if they are wrong and the ridge is stronger sooner then we should see Maria not take that NE jog and drift more W of N and get closer to the 74/75W by 30N...thus being closer and able to get here on that NW turn before that trough cuts in and boots her out....the downside is a more NW track means less Jose wake and probably a bit less shear cause of being steered by the strengthening ridge. I am not convinced she cant be a 100-120 mph cane when she gets up this way.....it would be short sighted to play up the fact she will "only" be a weak cat 1 if she hits... using my super scientific method of holding a piece of paper over the screen to get a heading on the floater it appears without any change in heading Maria would be around 74W when she gets to 30N this puts her far enough west IMO to make it on or over the OBX at least. So that northeast bend the models have from around 12-30 hrs out would need to happen to keep her offshore and we should see that occur if it does it would be a good indicator she will stay east of the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Meh I just need to stay out of the main thread lol....models are trending back east a bit.....they all have a NE jog or keep her right on 71/72W until she is pretty far north and this keeps her offshore once the NW turn happens....so things to look for is for her being more west of track short term say 24-36 hrs, if she is 74/75 west by 30N then I think she hits NC head on, if she is still out at 72/73W at 30N then brushing the OBX is probably as far west as she can get. I still think the 12Z are giving Jose to much credit....if they are wrong and the ridge is stronger sooner then we should see Maria not take that NE jog and drift more W of N and get closer to the 74/75W by 30N...thus being closer and able to get here on that NW turn before that trough cuts in and boots her out....the downside is a more NW track means less Jose wake and probably a bit less shear cause of being steered by the strengthening ridge. I am not convinced she cant be a 100-120 mph cane when she gets up this way.....it would be short sighted to play up the fact she will "only" be a weak cat 1 if she hits... using my super scientific method of holding a piece of paper over the screen to get a heading on the floater it appears without any change in heading Maria would be around 74W when she gets to 30N this puts her far enough west IMO to make it on or over the OBX at least. So that northeast bend the models have from around 12-30 hrs out would need to happen to keep her offshore and we should see that occur if it does it would be a good indicator she will stay east of the OBX. If you’re referring to my commentary on Maria I’ve never said she will be only a cat 1. I’ve said cat 1-2 when she approaches or hits NC at least twice if not three times. That’s a weak hurricane on a scale of 1-5. If you’re not referring to me then nevermind and apologies. I’ve also never once written off Maria as a miss for the US. I’ve been consistent saying the possibilities are there for a notable storm to hit and or impact NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: If you’re referring to my commentary on Maria I’ve never said she will be only a cat 1. I’ve said cat 1-2 when she approaches or hits NC at least twice if not three times. That’s a weak hurricane on a scale of 1-5. If you’re not referring to me then nevermind and apologies. I’ve also never once written off Maria as a miss for the US. I’ve been consistent saying the possibilities are there for a notable storm to hit and or impact NC. Actually wasnt talking about you ..Euro coming in 100-150 miles west of the 00Z already through 96...probably still a miss....in fact no NE turn at all at 120 turning NE so its further west short term but ends up actually a bit east of its closest approach.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Actually wasnt talking about you ..Euro coming in 100-150 miles west of the 00Z already through 96...probably still a miss.... Yes. Looks like a "miss", but big changes from previous days. Maria will keep us on our toes. The butthurts and competitiveness in the main board is harsh. I speak up only when necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Regan said: Yes. Looks like a "miss", but big changes from previous days. Maria will keep us on our toes. The butthurts and competitiveness in the main board is harsh. I speak up only when necessary. Yeah the G4 mssions to sample the WAR etc will help a lot with exactly how it plays out....still I bet the Euro has a LOT of ens hitting NC head on especially with the west trend early....the GFS ens mean trended west a touch as well even though it had less direct hits... 06Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 I thought Maria was a done deal and going to go harmlessly out to sea. At least that's what WRAL mets were saying a couple of days ago. I honestly quit following it, and then see today it might be a threat to NC after all, at least the OBX. Just shows you how Mother Nature has her own ideas. Seems this hurricane has been out there forever, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I thought Maria was a done deal and going to go harmlessly out to sea. At least that's what WRAL mets were saying a couple of days ago. I honestly quit following it, and then see today it might be a threat to NC after all, at least the OBX. Just shows you how Mother Nature has her own ideas. Seems this hurricane has been out there forever, too. Rule number 1. Never listen to wral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Rule number 1. Never listen to wral. Word. And if they do say it's bad, you can bet we will all die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Interesting flight path into Maria... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 That explains that... Brad Panovich Meteorologist added 2 new photos. 17 mins · Quite the flight that the Coyote UAV took into the eye of #Maria. It's dropped from a dropsonde deploys wings and flies for up to 49 mins. 1 Comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 At 18, the 18Z is a touch slower then the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 The drone makes for some quick observations. Pressure has dropped to 947ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 A touch west at 30. Looks similar to the 06Z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 At 42, still west but the speed is basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 At 90, a touch slower, noticably west and hanging off the Outer Banks yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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