downeastnc Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 yeah should go NE from there....one more west jog like that one and its gonna be landfall at Cape Lookout and then inland over the IBX..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 At 132 she is crawling N but still battering the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: yeah should go NE from there....one more west jog like that one and its gonna be landfall at Cape Lookout and then inland over the IBX..... One more water jog like that and it's gonna go into topsail beach. That had to be 150-200 mile west move this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Barely moving NE at 138. Going on 34 hours of waves and surge against the NC coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Well that was certainly an interesting run to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 25 minutes ago, senc30 said: Well that was certainly an interesting run to say the least. Still a little early to call it a trend the Euro didnt bite at it at 12Z but the overall look is there, that was 50-100 miles from being a legit hit over eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 18z GEFS is always fun....what a shift though. Half look to make landfall or close the other half are a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z GEFS is always fun....what a shift though. Half look to make landfall or close the other half are a miss. Yeah quite the change.....and it does look similar to the way the models ran 3-4 days ago.....maybe they locked in on Jose being much stronger in the mid range and it took Jose weakening quicker before they started correcting....we are 5 days or so from when it would get up here if it came here so thats plenty of time for more changes....if the Euro starts back west then at the very least the OBX on back on the table, I noticed the NHC slipped Hatteras into the cone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 Wow at least 8 members making legit landfalls over eastern NC on the 18Z GEFS, this is a huge shift west today, still the Euro isnt on board so until that happens you gotta put more weight into the OTS track, if the Euro caves to the GFS then chances go way up that NC deals with a landfall/near miss next week. Starting to remind me of this run the GFS had last weekend https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017091612&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Someone asked about drones the other day... here's the answer. 8PM Advisory We are fortunate tonight to have an Air Force and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampling Maria. In fact, a Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched from the NOAA P3 aircraft successfully measured winds in the eyewall. Data from these platforms indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 I wonder what they will name the disturbance SE of Lee if that develops. Lee2? Lee looks like a miniature cane already. https://atmos.washington.edu/images/ir-e/201709222345.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Good thing she is going to be weakening regardless of LF or not. It’s also a good thing we don’t have a cat 3-4 barreling right into NC then inland. She’s gonna cut eventually, I’ve never ruled out a US LF but it’s almost safe to say we don’t have to worry about inland storm warnings etc. RDU ends up on the left side of the storm not the right even with a LF. worst case scenario with where we are now is a stall. Would hate to see the beach erosion with a cat 1-2 hurricane just spinning off the coast for 12-25 hoursz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Don S back up to 25% chance at LF in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Out to 18 the 00Z is a touch, a small touch east of the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Touch quicker and east at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 0z is clearly east of 18z Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Question is, will it pull that hard left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Still east and quicker at 72 with no sign yet of a west movement towards the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 And right on que, at 78, it starts that NNW movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 I guess tomorrow will be moving day. Should have all the factors in place at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Out to hr 96 maria is starting the new motion towards nc coast but is still further NE of the 18z run Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 At 114 she sits off the Outer Banks but still a touch east of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 At hr 114 it's basically heading west towards the nc coast.. biggest take away is the gfs still has the hard turn to the left.. it will be interesting to see where tommorows runs goSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 And at 132 she is saying goodbye to the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 I feel that tomorrow evening is when things clear up a lot. I am certainly nowhere near as knowledgeable about this as some on here and I hope the ones who are will state their thoughts and educated opinions as well. Think tomorrow will be interesting either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Oz euro is a good bit west of the 12z.. It looks more in line with the gfs.. If I'm correct I believe the ukie came in west close to obx..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 06z euro wasn't as progressive with Maria which allowed the trough to move in which shunts maria ots further south and east than the 0zSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 1 hour ago, timnc910 said: 06z euro wasn't as progressive with Maria which allowed the trough to move in which shunts maria ots further south and east than the 0z Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk That is a positive; don't like seeing the westward trend over the past few days; bring on the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Quite a few ensemble members of the gfs/euro have this hitting far eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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