timnc910 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I'm not sure how much merit the cmc has but the runs it has been showing has consistently been showing Jose dying off quickly. ( which at this moment he looks like a hot mess and won't be anything for much longer) which allows the ridges to Marias east and west to connect... I know it's not the euro or ukie but has been fairly consitent.. I guess the CMC solution is still on the table..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Maria will be OTS but fairly fortunate considering how close this could have gotten to hitting land. Past few runs have been weakening Jose a little quicker/east and the ridge over NY is edging a little further SE. Looks to be at 73W at this point...if it was west of 75W it might have had a chance. Just to far east at this point to hook back in that much and EPS is going to be fairly spot on with this 72 hour modeled location. Maybe the OBX get some winds/rain out of this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Maria will be OTS but fairly fortunate considering how close this could have gotten to hitting land. Past few runs have been weakening Jose a little quicker and the ridge over NY is edging a little further SE. Looks to be at 73W at this point...if it was west of 75W it might have had a chance. Just to far east at this point to hook back in that much and EPS is going to be fairly spot on with this 72 hour modeled location. Maybe the OBX get some winds/rain out of this though. I see the threat of a hurricane but even if she was headed direct to OBX she's still going to be weak for a hurricane. This doesn't appear to be a near miss from a monster. Looks like a possible miss from a decaying shell of her former self hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I see the threat of a hurricane but even if she was headed direct to OBX she's still going to be weak for a hurricane. This doesn't appear to be a near miss from a monster. Looks like a possible miss from a decaying shell of her former self hurricane. You realize that for the people that live in the Outer Banks that it doesn't need to be a monster right? These are barrier islands and large storms (not large hurricanes, but large storms) can cut off an island or push the sound into homes and businesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Regan said: She's 120 mph now. Slowly gaining Wow. Is there always that much drama in the main Maria forum? Good god. I see what y'all have been saying. Yes there is which is why I avoid it for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Yikes at the number of west members on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yikes at the number of west members on the EPS Can you post a pic of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 51 minutes ago, DJnVa said: You realize that for the people that live in the Outer Banks that it doesn't need to be a monster right? These are barrier islands and large storms (not large hurricanes, but large storms) can cut off an island or push the sound into homes and businesses. That doesn't change my statement. The concern level still goes up the stronger the storm is. OBX can handle a cat 1 or 2 they have seen those kind of storms over and over again over the years. Imo once you start hitting 3+ the concern and flooding and damage stars to really take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Don S is down to a 20% chance at US LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Don S is down to a 20% chance at US LF. He's finally getting to the Cold Rain forecast of 0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Looking at satellite imagery it looks like she has made a couple wobbles west.. it would be interesting to see where the nhc center fixes has lined up with their track.. she is getting in the territory where she should start shooting north.. but her heading looks WNW at times then NW at other times...I guess this is because of the eye trying to reorganize itself..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 A few more west jogs like ones the plane is finding and she will be outside the NHC cone inside of a 12 hrs....this doesn't necessarily mean anything down the road but slower and more west means more time for Jose to die and the ridge to bridge.....still the ridge to her immediate NE is small and suppose to weaken thanks to Jose so she should begin to turn north fairly soon......unless the models have over done Jose's effect on said ridge....also 128knt at the surface in the eyewall that last pass....probably a gust but still that's 150 mph..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Apparently the nhc fixes has been well west of their forecast track... Don said in his most recent post also said that Maria has started a w of NW motion within the last few hours.. how short lived it is who knows but satellite confirms it's not a wobble... I know it would be unprecedented but it would be something if the CMC is onto something.. The storms current heading and the CMC position around the Turks looks similar. I wonder how long the nhc is gonna keep current forecast track till they adjust it to the latest center fixesSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Apparently the nhc fixes has been well west of their forecast track... Don said in his most recent post also said that Maria has started a w of NW motion within the last few hours.. how short lived it is who knows but satellite confirms it's not a wobble... I know it would be unprecedented but it would be something if the CMC is onto something.. The storms current heading and the CMC position around the Turks looks similar. I wonder how long the nhc is gonna keep current forecast track till they adjust it to the latest center fixes Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk The problem is the GFS and Euro are not budging.....or at least the GFS hasn't at 00Z and I doubt the Euro does either....the GFS literally takes Maria almost due NNW or N from her current location, if Maria is on the same general heading in 12-18hrs and in the Turks and Caicos without a noticeable north trend then maybe the CMC was onto something and you would think the other models would begin correcting....still that seems unlikely as hell IMO..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 12z GFS makes a 500 mile west shift and almost landfalls in the OBX. Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Jonathan said: 12z GFS makes a 500 mile west shift and almost landfalls in the OBX. Fantastic. Could have seen that coming. Way too much faith in a dying, 3 week old storm over cold water to capture Maria and yank her north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 UK shifts west too...looks like it gets all the way to 73-74W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 It be something else if 0z shifted more West too. Which as far I'm concern still a possible player if the ridge starts building between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Gefs much like the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 You take that east bump around 72 hrs out of the mean track and leave everything else the same and we get a NC landfall around Lookout probably....which was a solution the models ran several times 3-4 days ago....still a low chance of happening but the models have all jumped west quite a bit today at 12Z.....still this is close enough now that a few more west bumps would be enough to bring the center over or close enough to give cane conditions on the OBX.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Out to 42 the 18Z is a tough faster and west compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Out to 66, still west of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 At 108, it looks like some of the outer bands will be affecting areas of the NC coast inland up to 30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Yikes. GFS has Maria moving due west off OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 18z GFS making landfall in OBX how did we get here...sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 At 114 the Outer Banks are taking a pretty decent beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 What's a 200 mile shift in one model run among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 At 120 the NC coast is taking a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Stalled now from 120-126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 10+mb stronger, 250 miles west, OBX being wiped from the planet as it literally stalls for 12 hours 25 miles offshore. What a run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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