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Hurricane Maria


downeastnc

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I'm not sure how much merit the cmc has but the runs it has been showing has consistently been showing Jose dying off quickly. ( which at this moment he looks like a hot mess and won't be anything for much longer) which allows the ridges to Marias east and west to connect... I know it's not the euro or ukie but has been fairly consitent.. I guess the CMC solution is still on the table..

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Maria will be OTS but fairly fortunate considering how close this could have gotten to hitting land.  Past few runs have been weakening Jose a little quicker/east and the ridge over NY is edging a little further SE.  

Looks to be at 73W at this point...if it was west of 75W it might have had a chance.  Just to far east at this point to hook back in that much and EPS is going to be fairly spot on with this 72 hour modeled location.  Maybe the OBX get some winds/rain out of this though.

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_4.png

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Maria will be OTS but fairly fortunate considering how close this could have gotten to hitting land.  Past few runs have been weakening Jose a little quicker and the ridge over NY is edging a little further SE.  

Looks to be at 73W at this point...if it was west of 75W it might have had a chance.  Just to far east at this point to hook back in that much and EPS is going to be fairly spot on with this 72 hour modeled location.  Maybe the OBX get some winds/rain out of this though.

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_4.png

I see the threat of a hurricane but even if she was headed direct to OBX she's still going to be weak for a hurricane.  This doesn't appear to be a near miss from a monster.  Looks like a possible miss from a decaying shell of her former self hurricane. 

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13 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I see the threat of a hurricane but even if she was headed direct to OBX she's still going to be weak for a hurricane.  This doesn't appear to be a near miss from a monster.  Looks like a possible miss from a decaying shell of her former self hurricane. 

 

You realize that for the people that live in the Outer Banks that it doesn't need to be a monster right? These are barrier islands and large storms (not large hurricanes, but large storms) can cut off an island or push the sound into homes and businesses.

 

Hurricane Irene Breaches Outer Banks

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51 minutes ago, DJnVa said:

 

You realize that for the people that live in the Outer Banks that it doesn't need to be a monster right? These are barrier islands and large storms (not large hurricanes, but large storms) can cut off an island or push the sound into homes and businesses.

 

Hurricane Irene Breaches Outer Banks

That doesn't change my statement.  The concern level still goes up the stronger the storm is.  OBX can handle a cat 1 or 2 they have seen those kind of storms over and over again over the years.  Imo once you start hitting 3+ the concern and flooding and damage stars to really take off. 

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Looking at satellite imagery it looks like she has made a couple wobbles west.. it would be interesting to see where the nhc center fixes has lined up with their track.. she is getting in the territory where she should start shooting north.. but her heading looks WNW at times then NW at other times...I guess this is because of the eye trying to reorganize itself..

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A few more west jogs like ones the plane is finding and she will be outside the NHC cone inside of a 12 hrs....this doesn't necessarily mean anything down the road but slower and more west means more time for Jose to die and the ridge to bridge.....still the ridge to her immediate NE is small and suppose to weaken thanks to Jose so she should begin to turn north fairly soon......unless the models have over done Jose's effect on said ridge....also 128knt at the surface in the eyewall that last pass....probably a gust but still that's 150 mph.....

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Apparently the nhc fixes has been well west of their forecast track... Don said in his most recent post also said that Maria has started a w of NW motion within the last few hours.. how short lived it is who knows but satellite confirms it's not a wobble... I know it would be unprecedented but it would be something if the CMC is onto something.. The storms current heading and the CMC position around the Turks looks similar. I wonder how long the nhc is gonna keep current forecast track till they adjust it to the latest center fixes

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7 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Apparently the nhc fixes has been well west of their forecast track... Don said in his most recent post also said that Maria has started a w of NW motion within the last few hours.. how short lived it is who knows but satellite confirms it's not a wobble... I know it would be unprecedented but it would be something if the CMC is onto something.. The storms current heading and the CMC position around the Turks looks similar. I wonder how long the nhc is gonna keep current forecast track till they adjust it to the latest center fixes

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The problem is the GFS and Euro are not budging.....or at least the GFS hasn't at 00Z and I doubt the Euro does either....the GFS literally takes Maria almost due NNW or N from her current location, if Maria is on the same general heading in 12-18hrs and in the Turks and Caicos without a noticeable north trend then maybe the CMC was onto something and you would think the other models would begin correcting....still that seems unlikely as hell IMO.....

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You take that east bump around 72 hrs out of the mean track and leave everything else the same and we get a NC landfall around Lookout probably....which was a solution the models ran several times 3-4 days ago....still a low chance of happening but the models have all jumped west quite a bit today at 12Z.....still this is close enough now that a few more west bumps would be enough to bring the center over or close enough to give cane conditions on the OBX....

gfs.thumb.png.670b9545eceb68acdd225964d9ecf69d.png

 

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