Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:09 PM, Ginx snewx said: fYPYes extreme defoliation will occur but having deep tree roots versus bald/naked ridges is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:07 PM, jpeters3 said: Fortunately, preparations for a 115 kt storm are pretty much the same as those for a 130-140 kt storm (which is probably closer to reality). GTF away from low-lying areas, take shelter from debris. Expand Looking at the island on Google Earth the one promising thing is they seem to build with hurricanes in mind. There are relatively few low lying dwellings and the population center is on the SW side of the island. Looks nothing like some of the US where large neighborhoods are placed on barrier islands with 10' or less of elevation. Of course a powerful storm rapidly intensifying as it strikes them is going to be devastating regardless of all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:14 PM, Windspeed said: On 9/18/2017 at 9:09 PM, Ginx snewx said: Expand Yes extreme defoliation will occur but having deep tree roots versus bald/naked ridges is better than nothing. Expand Very True but look at this, outer bands https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/909851425525571584 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Only storm of similar intensity to directly hit Dominica was Hurricane David in 1979 which was 145 mph. As mentioned above where they built offers some general protection and Maria has a small core, regardless, this is going to be only of the worst direct strikes on the island. About the only good thing is a lot of disaster recovery assets are already in the area due to Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:20 PM, dan11295 said: Only storm of similar intensity to directly hit Dominica was Hurricane David in 1979 which was 145 mph. As mentioned above where they built offers some general protection and Maria has a small core, regardless, this is going to be only of the worst direct strikes on the island. About the only good thing is a lot of disaster recovery assets are already in the area due to Irma. Expand Unlike PR which still has 60 K without power and it dotted with coastal communities Cat 5 predicted winds 155 gusting to 184 per NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I'd be nervous if I was on St. Croix in the USVI, too. They're dangerously close to the beeline from Dominica to PR. As far as I can tell last time they really got whacked was in Marilyn ('95). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Raw T# up to 7.1 per CIMSS. Anyone have their link for the GOES-16 ADT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 GOES-16 IR (from about 5 minutes ago) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Raw T to 7.1. This is insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 raw T is straight weenie crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I have been to Dominica, the roads and most of the infrastructure are very poor quality. Unless they've rebuilt everything since 2001, it's not going to stand up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Radar has almost Andrew-like appearance: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles (different track but Charley 2004 perhaps) Heading straight for Roseau Dominica unfortunately, pray for a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:24 PM, JasonOH said: Raw T# up to 7.1 per CIMSS. Anyone have their link for the GOES-16 ADT? Expand http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/goesrPG/odt15L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Recon is in the air, although they are flying in from Curacao so it'll take a while to reach Dominica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Raw T to 7.1. That's higher than it ever was for Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:28 PM, cmasty1978 said: raw T is straight weenie crack Expand Most of the time, but not with an RIing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:32 PM, Superstorm93 said: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/goesrPG/odt15L.html Expand old? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt15L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:28 PM, cmasty1978 said: raw T is straight weenie crack Expand Not really. It's extremely useful for RI. Usually I take Final T into considering, but Raw T is very telling under RI situations. But I understand where you're coming from! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:38 PM, Ginx snewx said: old? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt15L.html Expand No. That's the GOES 16 link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:39 PM, Superstorm93 said: No. That's the GOES 16 link Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Is recon going to get there before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:41 PM, dan11295 said: Is recon going to get there before landfall?I think they will make it. Based on radar, we're 1.5 hrs from western eyewall crossing over eastern Dominica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:39 PM, cmasty1978 said: thanks, ive have been following TC's for decades. but please feel free to tell us every time it fluctuates. super useful. Expand Did you forget to take your medicine that keeps your ego in check? Take a chill pill. GOES 16 has proven mighty useful this year. Already has paid for itself with the valuable data collected from Harvey, Irma, and now Maria. It is collecting one minute snapshots. The loops will be amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:39 PM, cmasty1978 said: thanks, ive have been following TC's for decades. but please feel free to tell us every time it fluctuates. super useful. Expand This post is ignorant and uncalled for. This storm is clearly rapidly intensifying (rather than simply fluctuating to a temporary high T value). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:41 PM, dan11295 said: On 9/18/2017 at 9:44 PM, Windspeed said: On 9/18/2017 at 9:41 PM, dan11295 said: Is recon going to get there before landfall? Expand I think they will make it. Based on radar, we're 1.5 hrs from western eyewall crossing over eastern Dominica. Expand Is recon going to get there before landfall? Expand Yeah, it's about 485 miles to the Eastern side of Dominica from Curacao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:44 PM, David Reimer said: Did you forget to take your medicine that keeps your ego in check? Take a chill pill. GOES 16 has proven mighty useful this year. Already has paid for itself with the valuable data collected from Harvey, Irma, and now Maria. It is collecting one minute snapshots. The loops will be amazing! Expand I am so thankful for the facelift/update we got this year with satellites! It has truly proven to be invaluable. (Not to mention the visuals are absolutely astounding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 On 9/18/2017 at 9:39 PM, cmasty1978 said: thanks, ive have been following TC's for decades. but please feel free to tell us every time it fluctuates. super useful. Expand At least she's posting relevant obs data, and not slinging around opinion on said data. Get back on track with obs. Air Force recon aircraft is departing from Curaçao to find out how strong Maria has become. We'll know between 7 and 8pm EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 WOW RAW T 7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Curios to see if we'll lose the radar on Martinique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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