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Hurricane Maria

Jtm12180

By Jtm12180,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Regan

Regan

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, shaggy said:

So basically the euro from the other night filled Jose in and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW motion. The GFS was stronger and took Jose further south towards bermuda and ejected maria out to sea. It seems as if the two models have swapped solutions for the time being.

Pretty much. But honestly, they could swap again or just show us something new. We are about 9 days out give or take. Ages.  Nothing would surprise me this season.  I'm not ready to bet on any model. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Maria is on a track running slightly north of that taken by the Great Hurricane of October 1780 which ran from just north of Barbados (on Oct 9) across St Lucia and Martinique then northwest to the Mona Passage west of Puerto Rico. That storm killed over twenty thousand people and from the damage reports must have been a cat-5 when north of Barbados. This storm apparently tracked north-northeast after leaving Hispaniola and missed Bermuda slightly to the southeast.

Another interesting factoid is that there had been two previous major hurricanes (three counting one in June), one of which hit New Orleans on August 24 and the other hitting Cuba and the Bahamas about a week before the Great Hurricane. And there was to be yet another major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico ten days later.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

Dominica has a pretty sharp incline in topography from sea floor and shoreline. Surge isn't as big an issue even for the water fronts. Maria, though intense, has a very small vortex besides. This is obviously an extreme wind event for the island. Dominica also has 1,400 meter volcanic peaks and unfortunately there are residences located up on the sides of ridges above towns. Elevated structures may be subject to higher gusts. Mudflows are always an issue on volcanic terrain but at least the ridges and peaks are heavily vegetated.

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TriPol

TriPol

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Maria is on a track running slightly north of that taken by the Great Hurricane of October 1780 which ran from just north of Barbados (on Oct 9) across St Lucia and Martinique then northwest to the Mona Passage west of Puerto Rico. That storm killed over twenty thousand people and from the damage reports must have been a cat-5 when north of Barbados. This storm apparently tracked north-northeast after leaving Hispaniola and missed Bermuda slightly to the southeast.

Another interesting factoid is that there had been two previous major hurricanes (three counting one in June), one of which hit New Orleans on August 24 and the other hitting Cuba and the Bahamas about a week before the Great Hurricane. And there was to be yet another major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico ten days later.

A Cat 5 in October??

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Maria is looking like potentially the strongest hurricane landfall in Puerto Rico of the satellite era.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/International_Hurricanes.html

#Maria could be only the 4th category 4 #hurricane landfall on Puerto Rico since 1851- last one was in 1932- the notorious San Ciprian stormpic.twitter.com/6LHywya9hH
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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Not surprisingly as the satelite appearance continues to improve the raw and adjusted adt is spiking. Next recon will almost certainly find a stronger system on its next mission.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt15L.html

Recon might miss its peak given the core is likely to interact with the mountains on Dominica before the plane arrives.

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

You think Dominica will have an effect? I personally don't think they'll be enough to significantly hinder the storm.

Its highest peak is almost 1500 m elevation, despite the small size of the island, that will have a temporary effect.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
You think Dominica will have an effect? I personally don't think they'll be enough to significantly hinder the storm.

A direct track over the island will have some effect though the NHC can't realistically forecast that due to it being such a small island. The vortex of Maria is tiny. This isn't a huge 25nm diameter eyewall like Irma that was able to engulf Lesser Antilles islands with peaks without much effect. Such a small eyewall in Maria crossing a 4,700 ft peak/ridge may interact enough to hinder the LLC but that doesn't mean it will cause significant weakening. The disruption may be enough to temporarily pause ongoing intensification however. Again, that will likely be temporary.
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jpeters3

jpeters3

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Amped said:

Raw T 6.7, probably around 130kts.  Gotta hate those 1.3T/6hr constraints during RI.


Raw T is up to 6.9 right now.  Given the satellite presentation, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a borderline cat 5 on our hands, and after what was probably a very rapid deepening. 

20170918.2030.goes13.x.vis1km_high.15LMA

 

Wilma experienced a very similarly rapid jump in raw T to 7.0 (below is from Wilma) 

5OCT18 221500  4.6  983.0/  +5.8 / 79.6  4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6  NO LIMIT   OFF  -67.86 -71.70  UNIFRM   N/A    16.73   81.55   SPRL   
2005OCT18 224500  4.6  983.0/  +5.8 / 79.6  4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7  NO LIMIT   OFF  -68.36 -72.47  UNIFRM   N/A    16.76   81.60   SPRL   
2005OCT18 231500  4.7  981.2/  +5.8 / 82.2  4.7 4.7 5.1 5.9  0.5T/hour  OFF  -57.56 -75.92  EYE/OB   N/A    16.69   81.64   SPRL   
2005OCT18 234500  4.7  981.2/  +5.8 / 82.2  4.7 4.7 5.1 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -66.26 -77.70  EYE/OB   N/A    16.73   81.68   SPRL   
2005OCT19 001500  4.8  979.5/  +5.9 / 84.8  4.8 4.8 5.2 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -65.36 -79.40  EYE/OB   N/A    16.66   81.73   SPRL   
2005OCT19 004500  4.9  977.7/  +5.9 / 87.4  4.9 4.9 5.2 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -64.96 -79.99  EYE/OB   N/A    16.59   81.77   SPRL   
2005OCT19 011500  5.0  975.9/  +5.9 / 90.0  5.0 5.0 5.3 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -65.36 -80.42  EYE/OB   N/A    16.63   81.81   SPRL   
2005OCT19 014500  5.1  973.9/  +5.9 / 92.4  5.0 5.1 5.4 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -57.26 -80.64  EYE/OB   N/A    16.66   81.86   SPRL   
2005OCT19 021500  5.2  971.8/  +5.8 / 94.8  5.1 5.2 5.5 6.5  0.5T/hour  OFF  -52.96 -81.04  EYE/OB   N/A    16.69   81.80   SPRL   
2005OCT19 031500  5.4  967.8/  +5.8 / 99.6  5.2 5.4 5.6 6.5  0.5T/hour  OFF  -34.96 -81.24  EYE/OB   N/A    16.76   81.87   SPRL   
2005OCT19 034500  5.4  967.7/  +5.7 / 99.6  5.3 5.4 5.7 7.0  0.5T/hour  OFF   -7.96 -81.37  EYE/R    N/A    16.87   81.82   SPRL
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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Maria's small eye is amazing.  The pressure has to be so much lower than the last recon.  When is the next plane due in?  The eye is so small that the exact path of the eyewall will be crucial.  

The 5pm track over PR is also the worst possible.  Puts San Juan in the right front quad with screaming winds from the east right off the ocean.  Most of the 3 million people live in the northeast part of the island....

PR.jpg

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

One for the books  

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye.  The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery.  The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing.  Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.
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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

One for the books  


Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye.  The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery.  The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing.  Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

Only a 7 knot boost for rapid intensification?  I would have upped it to just shy of cat 5

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jpeters3

jpeters3

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Amped said:

Only a 7 knot boost for rapid intensification?  I would have upped it to just shy of cat 5


Regardless of the advisory intensity, the storm's actual intensity is what it is - and Dominica is about to feel the full brunt of it.  Was really hoping this storm could threat the needle between islands :-(

2003 census puts the population at 71,727.

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jpeters3

jpeters3

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, adiabatic13 said:

NHC intensity estimate is much too low, Dominica will experience damage on par with Irma in BVI, hope Dominica's much larger population is aware that the strongest hurricane in the island's history is on her doorstep...just look at the trapeziodal eye, very very impressive


Fortunately, preparations for a 115 kt storm are pretty much the same as those for a 130-140 kt storm (which is probably closer to reality).  GTF away from low-lying areas, take shelter from debris.

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