Hurricane Maria

[Hurricane Agnes]

11 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

A weakening (damaged) hurricane over warm water will be entering relatively cool water of the open ocean soon in the wake of jose and will spend the rest of its life over relatively cool water. The ssts along the coast don’t help either- range from the upper 60s in va to upper 70s along nc coast. What component of basic climatology indicates this will be a catastrophic situation for the coast?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

She still has some juicy water to run through (latest data as of yesterday) before hitting VA. Jose is further north and east of that area.

[SteveVa]

SSTs are fine. It'll probably stall on top of the Gulf stream and Jose moved farther east. 

Ocean temps imby are not even close to 60s, more like mid 70s. 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Careful of putting words in people's mouths here. Nobody is saying it's going to be catastrophic. As for the SSTs, see the latest NHC discussion. If Maria is in the left half of the envelope, she will avoid Jose's wake and probably enter a region of relatively weak shear as the ridge breaks down. She'll be near the Gulf Stream at that point, so while it's not expected to be a major hurricane at that point, it could be stronger than originally thought by that point.

Yeah, it's a real tightrope walk. A rather innacurate attempt at GFS track vs NHC track:

 

[Plokoon111]

A question: What causes the water past NC to be drastically cooler? 

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, it's a real tightrope walk. A rather innacurate attempt at GFS track vs NHC track:

 

That's a forecast/projected visualization of ssts (based on how CDAS works) vs actuals, no?  If so, it seems it's giving Jose quite a bit of credit in upwelling the water off the central and upper midatlantic coast, which seems overdone.  I.e., I can't see how the Jose remnants are going to have that kind of impact right along the coast all the way down into NC -

 

[shaggy]

53 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

A weakening (damaged) hurricane over warm water will be entering relatively cool water of the open ocean soon in the wake of jose and will spend the rest of its life over relatively cool water. The ssts along the coast don’t help either- range from the upper 60s in va to upper 70s along nc coast. What component of basic climatology indicates this will be a catastrophic situation for the coast?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nobody is expecting catastrophic damage. The orientation of our river systems is perfect for funneling water during storms. Even here inland I have watched the Tar river flow BACKWARDS as storms approach as the surge starts to build in. If you go to the NHC inundation maps for eastern NC even for a cat 1 you will see certain areas that are susceptible to big surges based on wind. In May of 2005 a nor'easter put 4-6 foot of surge into Adams creek. The highest recorded gust was 79mph on cedar island so it wasn't some big storm. Its not just about wind speed. Its about wind direction and duration. A stalled cat 1 in the right spot with a big wind field would cause massive flooding in some locations across NC.

[downeastnc]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Irene wasn't a cat 1 down by OBX

yeah she was.....she hit as a 85 mph Cat 1 and her surge was the highest ever recorded over most of the Pamlico River basin because her angle of approach and path, combined with the fact she was basically stalled/crawling on the coast ......

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, Plokoon111 said:

A question: What causes the water past NC to be drastically cooler? 

The Gulf Stream comes up from the Florida area.  NC sticks out to the east.  So basically the warm waters of the Gulf Stream move NE well out east of the east coast north of NC.  So take a look at the water temperatures and you will see a quick large drop off of water temperatures. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

24 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

The Gulf Stream comes up from the Florida area.  NC sticks out to the east.  So basically the warm waters of the Gulf Stream move NE well out east of the east coast north of NC.  So take a look at the water temperatures and you will see a quick large drop off of water temperatures. 

At this time of year (late summer/early fall) the ocean temps along the east coast are at their warmest (due to the lag of seasonal ocean warming). So during this time of year, the Gulf Stream isn't necessarily impacting the temps right along the coast north of NC.  In fact, the current water temps all the way up to the NY area are in the low 70s, low-mid '70s off the Jersey coast, mid-70s off DE/MD coasts/bays, & mid/upper 70s off the VA/NC coasts -  https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/all.html

Winter/spring is a whole other ballgame however (same seasonal lag, so slow to warm in spring). Ugh.

[NJwx85]

It's a bit hard to tell based on the spaghetti plots but it appears that the majority of the 12z EPS members are more progressive than the 12z OP, thus they end up a bit more North and East by day 6. 

At some point Maria will be swiftly kicked East, but I still few there is even more room for this to come closer to OBX based on the handling of the large scale features, particularly the timing and amplitude of the trough digging Eastward.

[Ginx snewx]

Just one thing to add. Looking at surface temps of the ocean tells you little about how effective a cane can use that heat to sustain itself. Much much important to analyze the heat content which takes depth of layers into the calculation.

[Diego]

3 hours ago, Plokoon111 said:

A question: What causes the water past NC to be drastically cooler? 

I would also mention the Labrador current. Aided by the Coriolis force, and the void left by the Gulf Stream, pulling off to the northeast north of Hatteras at Hatteras. It originates off of the Labrador Sea, and transports cooler ocean water to the south and west to just above the point where the Outer Banks swings due north at Hatteras or Buxton.

http://wnct.com/blog/2016/04/03/when-these-two-meet-the-graveyard-of-the-atlantic/

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 pm update (and the sharp right turn).  She picked up a little speed but is still @ 115 mph sustained -

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

 

[Windspeed]

18z GFS gets Maria's core closer to the Outer Banks than any of its previous operational runs. Probably static, but still worth noting.

[Windspeed]

The GFS also wants to deepen Maria quite a bit. It keeps the core just far enough west to remain west of the colder pool of Jose's upwelling. It also decreases shear over the next few days, improving upper level support as it bends 300-200mb flow back NW over the Southeast interior.

[TPAwx]

Really hate to see these solutions closing in on OBX.  As modeled it would be a sufficient pounding with that sustained onshore fetch and wave action.  They don't need additional infrastructure or economic disruption after the recent severed power line incident during peak tourist season.  

[Coach McGuirk]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

Thanks Don. Looks like those barrier islands have somehow managed to survive all these years despite frequent canes. 

My favorite spot down there is Pea Island. Miles of desolate beach along the highway. Plenty of spots to get out of the car and pick a spot for the day. Often you can't see anyone. 

probably like hundreds of thousands of years...

[TPAwx]

43 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

probably like hundreds of thousands of years...

The current version of OBX are not nearly that old.  Deglaciation and SLR processes shape and shift.  Hurricane impacts are obviously common there but not insignificant to the integrity of the barrier islands and the ongoing viability to host people, flora and fauna.

[Windspeed]

Maria is getting her act together this evening. A nice ring of -80° C cloudtops encircles the eye. There is still some high cloud debris in the eye, but she looks to be intensifying. Next recon should be interesting.

[downeastnc]

25 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

The current version of OBX are not nearly that old.  Deglaciation and SLR processes shape and shift.  Hurricane impacts are obviously common there but not insignificant to the integrity of the barrier islands and the ongoing viability to host people, flora and fauna.

Yeah they didnt even exist 10K years ago.....in fact they are closer to 5K yrs old....and the first formation was 50 miles east of the current location and they move westward slowly as overwash takes the beachside and moves it to the sound side in storms....this of course has been greatly controlled the last 100 yrs or so by humans....

to keep it on topic, Maria might actually see winds come up to match her pressure ( 944 last pass)  as she has storms around the center now....and Windspeed ninjad my edit...

[donsutherland1]

Over the past 24 hours, Hurricane Maria has remained on a reasonably steady course just west of due north. It has also retained major hurricane status and that could continue to be the case into at least tomorrow morning.

Its general motion is likely to continue for the short-term. Eventually, Maria is likely to approach North Carolina's Outer Banks bringing tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions there. However, odds continue to favor its center remaining offshore. At closest passage, a position between that of Hurricane #3 in 1896 (74.7°W) and Hurricane #1 in 1949 (76.7°W) seems possible, even as it is somewhat west of the ECMWF. My guess is that Maria will come as far west as 73°W to 75°W before turning away from the United States mainland. That is consistent with the latest ECMWF guidance, which has generally performed quite well.

One key ingredient for a farther west track would involve Jose's faster dissipation. This evening, Jose was maintaining a weakening but still vigorous center of circulation near 38.9°N and 68.0°W. That circulation will likely slowly fade, but the system probably won't dissipate for at least another 24-36 hours. Hence, the opportunity for ridging to develop to Maria's north prior to the arrival of a trough that will likely sweep it out to sea is limited. Prior to then, a weak ridge to Maria's northeast will likely keep it on a generally north to north-northwest trajectory. That bearing could slowly reduce Maria's prospects of making U.S. landfall.

The implied probability for such landfall fell to 44% based on hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 5 pm position. The adjusted data set, which incorporates the synoptic situation, is around 35%. Both figures are lower than they were yesterday evening.

Based on the GEFS and EPS, with greater weight placed on the EPS, I belive the probability of U.S. landfall has remained essentially unchanged from that of yesterday evening. I continue to place that probability at 25%. 
 

[bobbutts]

Improving appearance on satellite.

[78Blizzard]

00z GFS has 50+ kt winds over NC outer banks for about 12 hours despite the center staying offshore.  Some serious beach erosion if that verifies, as Nags Head will be under NE winds for 2 high tides.

[olafminesaw]

[Coach McGuirk]

Lots of dry air entering from the north. 

[Akeem the African Dream]

7 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

That's not going to verify 

[SteveVa]

I know nobody cares about Maria anymore since she won't impact anyone else besides the OBX and maybe SE VA, but new vortex message has some interesting info.

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:57Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307 
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 19
Observation Number: 25
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 16:40:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 72°59'W (28.9N 72.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 379 statute miles (610 km) to the NE (45°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,603m (8,540ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 83kts (~ 95.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 86kts (From the NE at ~ 99.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed 
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) which was observed 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) from the flight level center at 11:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the N (6°) from the flight level center at 16:49:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 3kts (From the W at 3mph

[Windspeed]

I care, Steve, I care...

 

Recon data suggests a large area of hurricane force winds to the north of the center. Maria has grown significantly in size over the past few days. The gradient has expanded. Though it is no longer a major hurricane, the windfield may present some problems for the Outer Banks. Maria is not the sloppy sheared system that Jose was as it moved north. Maria is still in a favorable environment and should maintain strong convection on closest approach. Bands with upper TS and Category 1 force NE winds are quite possible at OBX/Hatteras.

[SteveVa]

I was just alluding to only 3 posts in the past 12 hours, didn't mean to call anyone out

New recon flight just took off, will be interesting to see if the NNW motion will continue...She almost crossed 73W

[PackGrad05]

Based on the track, wind field, and wind probability maps, this will be a bigger deal for central/eastern NC than Irma.