Hurricane Maria

[mayjawintastawm]

Flash Flood Warning for the Guajataca Dam was just canceled... one small bright spot

[Windspeed]

It looked to my untrained eye that there was a little bit of tilting to the NW of the circulation, at least for a while earlier today where the MLC became decoupled. I think the conditions in the last 24-30 hours haven't been ideal once it fully got away from having any land interaction affecting dry air ingestion and inflow, but conditions are improving for a 24-36 hour window, and I imagine we will see the core tighten up and stabilize tomorrow. I don't necessarily think that means intensification, but at least a better internal structure.

The MLC may have tilted, but it did not decouple. Decoupling would have resulted in an entirely different looking satellite presentation.

[vinylfreak89]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

10 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said:

It looked to my untrained eye that there was a little bit of tilting to the NW of the circulation, at least for a while earlier today where the MLC became decoupled. I think the conditions in the last 24-30 hours haven't been ideal once it fully got away from having any land interaction affecting dry air ingestion and inflow, but conditions are improving for a 24-36 hour window, and I imagine we will see the core tighten up and stabilize tomorrow. I don't necessarily think that means intensification, but at least a better internal structure.
 

The MLC may have tilted, but it did not decouple. Decoupling would have resulted in an entirely different looking satellite presentation.

you're right. my use of terminology was poor. I meant to say displaced. in other words, the system was not fully vertically stacked

[Random Chaos]

0z Euro at hour 72 is way west, even closer to the coast than 0z GFS was. Waiting for more frames, but not a good trend for OBX.

[olafminesaw]

10 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

0z Euro at hour 72 is way west, even closer to the coast than 0z GFS was. Waiting for more frames, but not a good trend for OBX.

Crawling NW towards OBX at 120, should still get kicked back to the east eventually, at that pace.

[Windspeed]

00z ECMWF is coming west and closer to OBX. That in itself is important. Maria comes close enough to create some excitement. But the pattern looks less than favorable for an intense system. Going on track alone, the threat is increased. But to be optimistic, the hurricane itself is significantly weaker in that environment. We have to take the shift west seriously however.

[Z-Cast]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

00z ECMWF is coming west and closer to OBX. That in itself is important. Maria comes close enough to create some excitement. But the pattern looks less than favorable for an intense system. Going on track alone, the threat is increased. But to be optimistic, the hurricane itself is significantly weaker in that environment. We have to take the shift west seriously however.

 

 

 

Also, that trof continues to slow dramatically each 00z run.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

00z ECMWF is coming west and closer to OBX. That in itself is important. Maria comes close enough to create some excitement. But the pattern looks less than favorable for an intense system. Going on track alone, the threat is increased. But to be optimistic, the hurricane itself is significantly weaker in that environment. We have to take the shift west seriously however.

 

 

 

Eps is also very close to Hatteras

Wagons west

[Windspeed]

Impressive..

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z NOGAPS came significantly farther West and clearly less progressive thru 120. Now has LF between Cape Lookout and Ocracoke it appears. Thats a red flag to me in my experience using this model. 6z GEFS have slowed Maria and mean has ticked West very close to NC Coast.

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[LVLion77]

Even if some speculation (or weenie hope)on this message forum is realized with a nc landfall, maria is a shell of her pre pr former self now and is entering an environment that encourages a lot of weakening and perhaps one that causes a subtropical transition that far north.


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[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Even if some speculation (or weenie hope)on this message forum is realized with a nc landfall, maria is a shell of her pre pr former self now and is entering an environment that encourages a lot of weakening and perhaps one that causes a subtropical transition that far north.


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A sign of the insanity this season has been when a cat 3 in the Atlantic is called a shell of it's former self. There's nothing unimpressive about her right now, and a category 1 landfall in NC is still fairly significant impact.

[shaggy]

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A sign of the insanity this season has been when a cat 3 in the Atlantic is called a shell of it's former self. There's nothing unimpressive about her right now, and a category 1 landfall in NC is still fairly significant impact.

TS dennis stalled off hatteras for a few days and put more water in the pamlico river at Washington than any other storm. So even if it doesn't landfall the slow motion could still cause huge effects if it has a large enough wind field.

[Jim Martin]

[psv88]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A sign of the insanity this season has been when a cat 3 in the Atlantic is called a shell of it's former self. There's nothing unimpressive about her right now, and a category 1 landfall in NC is still fairly significant impact.

At this point the outer banks are fully equipped to handle a cat 1. Other than some power outages and beach erosion they would be just fine. No need to panic because a cat 1 may get close to the outer banks. I'm sure @donsutherland1has some stats as to how often the outerbanks see cat 1 or greater canes.

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

At this point the outer banks are fully equipped to handle a cat 1. Other than some power outages and beach erosion they would be just fine. No need to panic because a cat 1 may get close to the outer banks. I'm sure @donsutherland1has some stats as to how often the outerbanks see cat 1 or greater canes.

If a cane ( even a Cat 1 ) parks just off the OBX for a day there will be more than power outages and beach erosion, HWY 12 will wipe out in dozens of spots and new inlets will be cut trapping anyone on those parts of islands....the dunes can last for a while but once they get taken out homes will start to go, its one thing to have those conditions for 12 hrs or so but once you get into the 24-30 hr range the over wash would be extreme. Then you have to take into account that all that water in the sounds will be blown inland and put 8-12 ft of water in places well inland...Irene did more damage to the OBX than many stronger hurricanes.....

Irene put more water up the river than any storm this video is shot well inland and shows 10ft or surge

 

This is because all this water had to go somewhere

 

[Regan]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

A sign of the insanity this season has been when a cat 3 in the Atlantic is called a shell of it's former self. There's nothing unimpressive about her right now, and a category 1 landfall in NC is still fairly significant impact.

Agree. Someone used the phrase "shell of former self" and it's caught on. Also people downplaying a cat 1 or ts is crazy. Damage has been done with less. It does put people in danger. I don't like how people are downplaying it. Especially ones that don't even live in Nc. Hurricanes and Tropicals are bad period. It's unnerving to hear this talk.  It's like someone is saying "I'm sorry that tree fell on your house, could have smashed you and your family though. No biggie. At least you have insurance."  These storms are a big pain and a tax on us all. Ditto to what downeastnc said above. No, it won't be damage necessarily like PR and Dominica, but dang it's no good period. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

11 am position (winds have dropped) -

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED AT SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.3W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

 

[psv88]

23 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

If a cane ( even a Cat 1 ) parks just off the OBX for a day there will be more than power outages and beach erosion, HWY 12 will wipe out in dozens of spots and new inlets will be cut trapping anyone on those parts of islands....the dunes can last for a while but once they get taken out homes will start to go, its one thing to have those conditions for 12 hrs or so but once you get into the 24-30 hr range the over wash would be extreme. Then you have to take into account that all that water in the sounds will be blown inland and put 8-12 ft of water in places well inland...Irene did more damage to the OBX than many stronger hurricanes.....

Irene put more water up the river than any storm this video is shot well inland and shows 10ft or surge

 

This is because all this water had to go somewhere

 

Irene wasn't a cat 1 down by OBX

[LithiaWx]

36 minutes ago, psv88 said:

At this point the outer banks are fully equipped to handle a cat 1. Other than some power outages and beach erosion they would be just fine. No need to panic because a cat 1 may get close to the outer banks. I'm sure @donsutherland1has some stats as to how often the outerbanks see cat 1 or greater canes.

100%  the truth.  The storm would be noteworthy but not catastrophic.  That part of NC has been hit countless times by weak hurricanes.  The infrastructure and people there have been exposed to hurricanes over and over again.  They are probably one of the more prepared spots in the country to handle a weak hurricane. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Key messages are of note here regarding the impacts on the coast due to the potential westward movement (and also due to her size and the outer bands) -

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

At this point the outer banks are fully equipped to handle a cat 1. Other than some power outages and beach erosion they would be just fine. No need to panic because a cat 1 may get close to the outer banks. I'm sure @donsutherland1has some stats as to how often the outerbanks see cat 1 or greater canes.

Since 1851, NC has experienced 52 hurricane impacts or about 1 every 3.2 years.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since 1851, NC has experienced 52 hurricane impacts or about 1 every 3.2 years.

Thanks Don. Looks like those barrier islands have somehow managed to survive all these years despite frequent canes. 

My favorite spot down there is Pea Island. Miles of desolate beach along the highway. Plenty of spots to get out of the car and pick a spot for the day. Often you can't see anyone. 

[Hazey]

Beware of a little baroclonic booster juice too. Even if it does start to transition, these things can get a shot in the arm to increase damage yield.

[Hoosier]

When the alternative was passing out to sea with little impact to the NC coastal area, this is not a great trend.  Though a scraper would be better than a full blown landfall, of course.

[LVLion77]

A weakening (damaged) hurricane over warm water will be entering relatively cool water of the open ocean soon in the wake of jose and will spend the rest of its life over relatively cool water. The ssts along the coast don’t help either- range from the upper 60s in va to upper 70s along nc coast. What component of basic climatology indicates this will be a catastrophic situation for the coast?


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[csnavywx]

12Z GFS is a little slower breaking down the ridge and a little faster with the track speed. Also, the handling of the SE upper low was a bit different and further SE, causing more of a NW bend. This solution is pretty close to the EPS control and mean from last night. Definitely a bit concerning considering the steady westward trend in most of those members. We're getting inside the D5 period though, so adjustments are typically smaller inside that timeframe. The breakdown speed of that blocking ridge is going to be pretty critical to how close she gets.

[Stormlover74]

Its amazing how the gfs keeps showing basically the same thing. Turning toward NC stalling just offshore and making a beeline to the east northeast

[Cary]

43 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

100%  the truth.  The storm would be noteworthy but not catastrophic.  That part of NC has been hit countless times by weak hurricanes.  The infrastructure and people there have been exposed to hurricanes over and over again.  They are probably one of the more prepared spots in the country to handle a weak hurricane. 

Nobody said it would be catastrophic, just potentially significant. What shaggy/Regan/downeast is on the mark.

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, LVLion77 said:

A weakening (damaged) hurricane over warm water will be entering relatively cool water of the open ocean soon in the wake of jose and will spend the rest of its life over relatively cool water. The ssts along the coast don’t help either- range from the upper 60s in va to upper 70s along nc coast. What component of basic climatology indicates this will be a catastrophic situation for the coast?


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Careful of putting words in people's mouths here. Nobody is saying it's going to be catastrophic. As for the SSTs, see the latest NHC discussion. If Maria is in the left half of the envelope, she will avoid Jose's wake and probably enter a region of relatively weak shear as the ridge breaks down. She'll be near the Gulf Stream at that point, so while it's not expected to be a major hurricane at that point, it could be stronger than originally thought by that point.