Hurricane Maria

[snowlover91]

1 hour ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

Jose seems to already be moving east according to the water vapor loop. The 18z GFS didn't have it pushing east until 12hr.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Looks can be deceiving. It’s always best to use microwave when recon isn’t available. I circled where the wind shift is on the most recent pass. Looks NW to me.

 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

14 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Looks can be deceiving. It’s always best to use microwave when recon isn’t available. I circled where the wind shift is on the most recent pass. Looks NW to me.

 

That's Maria, not Jose. Read my post again.

[snowlover91]

13 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

That's Maria, not Jose. Read my post again.

 

Oops, my bad! We’ve had way too many recently the fatigue is definitely setting in for me. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

footage of the dam leak

 

 

[Windspeed]

footage of the dam leak

 

 

Fortunately, what you are seeing is overflow into the spillway, as designed. The dam has not yet failed. However, strong current is eroding and undercutting into the earthen dam at the bottom of the spillway. Therefore, the threat of failure does exist beyond the already dangerous situation of flooding due to uncontrolled release.

[donsutherland1]

The guidance has weakened Jose a little faster and delayed the arrival of the trough somewhat. The end result has been a shift toward a closer call for landfall for Maria. 
The 18z GFS takes Maria on a track that is remarkably similar to that taken by Hurricane #1 (1949). That hurricane approached the North Carolina Outer Banks before turning sharply away from the East Coast.  

For those who are interested, that storm's track can be found here.

Based on Maria's 8 pm position, the climatological odds of U.S. landfall have increased. In the unadjusted cases, 56% of storms made U.S. landfall, almost evenly split between Florida and North Carolina. In the adjusted set, approximately 40% made landfall with North Carolina, by far, the preferred location for landfall. Among the hurricanes in that data set are Connie (1955), Ione (1955), Gloria (1985), Fran (1996), and Floyd (1999).

On account of the shift in the ensembles and increase in the adjusted climatological data set, I've modestly revised my thinking on the probability of U.S. landfall. At present, I'm thinking there is a 25% probability as opposed to the 20% figure yesterday.This is a compromise between the EPS and adjusted climatological data set. It is also close to the implied probability on the 18z GEFS. 
 

[Isotherm]

I like Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 as a potential analog. Could be a coastal NC scrape followed by fairly sharp recurve to the northeast given the synoptic scale pattern.

 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I like Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 as a potential analog. Could be a coastal NC scrape followed by fairly sharp recurve to the northeast given the synoptic scale pattern.

 

 

Bonnie is also in my adjusted data set.

[Windspeed]

I think tonight's ECMWF op and the EPS is going to be the most important modeling yet with respect to knowing just how much of a real threat has developed with regards to the Carolina Outer Banks. Jose is rapidly filling IRL and we have the upper weakness developing over Florida. I really want to see how the ECMWF and its ensembles handle this before I would start getting concerned.

 

[Windspeed]

Maria's forward motion has slowed down significantly over the past nine hours. Combined with the last two recon fixes and satellite, it has essentially been drifting to the NW. The core of Maria is currently positioned in a weak steering flow. Tonight is game time with regards to how steering flow will develop. I honestly don't have a clue how this will play out. I still think the core ends up east of the CONUS, but the slow down will definitely have an impact on modeling.

[Saltydog]

57 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I think tonight's ECMWF op and the EPS is going to be the most important modeling yet with respect to knowing just how much of a real threat has developed with regards to the Carolina Outer Banks. Jose is rapidly filling IRL and we have the upper weakness developing over Florida. I really want to see how the ECMWF and its ensembles handle this before I would start getting concerned.

 

Tomorrow nights guidance will mostly likely be the most important. What we're all watching for is the system coming out of the plains. The GFS has thus far handled Maria quite well, so I believe the euro will follow in its nature. 

Per Don's post.  This is the problem with only selecting a few hurricanes with previous tracks from origination (picture 1). While it is beneficial to select on tracks, you need to do a deeper dive into the data per storm. 

September 19, 1955 would be the closest storm in terms of pattern, synoptic environment, and quick kick (picture 2.) 

The most interesting factor in this pattern isn't the previous climatology, but the players involved (picture 3). Jose has now retrograded to the point where WV is having a hard time tracking him, and I suspect the ULL (small area of convection near Florida) is trying to go neutral. Jose is dying, he's on his way out, and it's obvious the high is rebuilding. However, the system coming from the plains is the kicker. You can see it advancing from Minnesota, to Western Texas. That ULL to the east of Florida, South Carolina, And Georgia is creating a weakness which is what is moving Maria closer to the N.C. Coast. The question now isn't Jose. Jose is now out of the picture for all intents and purposes, the question is: will Maria somehow finding a steering current fast enough to advance her into the N.C. Coast. While I personally think landfall around Kitty Hawk isn't out of the question, I'm not completely sold. However, ~20% on the landfalling scenario isn't accurate. The GFS has modeled Maria rather well, and reacts better/faster than the euro in these situations (12 v. 6 hours essentially). Anyone speaking of the euro until 0315 is dealing with old information. In order for me to give your 20% credit I would need the actual breakdown of hurricanes you selected, and why. 

If you would like to play with your own hurricane tracks please go here: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

I do enjoy everyones opinions, but please, lets use the sat imagery at the present time versus clinging to every run. I believe we can give models confidence starting at the 12z runs tomorrow. 

Be well, 

[yoda]

Meanwhile... 00z GFS is getting quite close to OBX at 108...

[Saltydog]

Just now, yoda said:

Meanwhile... 00z GFS is getting quite close to OBX at 108...

It likely will get much closer into tomorrow afternoon. If I was a local met in N.C. I would have begun reminding my viewers of the risks involved this morning.

[LSC97wxnut]

And gets closer still at 120.  Just waiting for the kicker to rocket her due east.

[yoda]

Maria puts on the brakes at 120 and by 132 is moving NE as its being kicked out to sea... but Outer Banks definitely were hit this run

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maria puts on the brakes at 120 and by 132 is moving NE as its being kicked out to sea... but Outer Banks definitely were hit this run

So what exactly is kicking it OTS?

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So what exactly is kicking it OTS?

The trough. It's progressive. Check out 120hr and on. You can see it allowing Maria to go NE. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017092300&fh=-6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Saltydog]

Just now, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

The trough. It's progressive. Check out 120hr and on. You can see it allowing Maria to go NE. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017092300&fh=-6&xpos=0&ypos=0

This is what is kicking Maria out: 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Saltydog said:

The system moving down from the plains. scroll up. 

So is the system coming out of the plains are sure thing? (Trying to figure out if Maria would have any way to track even further north)

[Saltydog]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So is the system coming out of the plains are sure thing? (Trying to figure out if Maria would have any way to track even further north)

-- Modifying this statement --

It's all about speed. How much room Maria has to go inland, and how the she handles the steering currents, because that system will just about meet her at the North Carolina Coast.  Right now Maria is a meandering storm, with little in terms of steering. Light steering currents are beneficial to both North Carolina, Virginia, and the D.C. Baltimore metro's, because the slower she approaches the N.C. Coast the faster she's out of there. If she was able to make a beeline for the coast (which nothing in the models, sat presentation, or even my gut tells me is available) and make landfall before the system was into North Carolina, she could conceivably move out of North Carolina similar to hurricane Floyd. That exit would increase the chances of heavy rain going into the river basins, erosion on the beaches, and would bring heavy rains through southern Virginia into your area. While this is possible we won't have an idea until tomorrow. Right now the models are realizing Jose is irrelevant, and correcting. Going into Sunday we'll know exactly what both the highest impact could be, and most likely impact. 

[Saltydog]

17 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Eastern North Carolina residents are some of the most experienced hurricane observers in the USA.  They go through this drill once every three years.  They can handle a CAT 1 if Maria trends farther west than anticipated.  As for the actual dollar amounts.  I believe the earlier insured damage estimates will be revised downward as Harvey and Irma are studied further.  I just hope the authorities warn the residents of the dangers of returning to mold infested dwellings. 

1

I would imagine this is what gets you in trouble. North Carolina's coastal plain is flood prone, and while it seems it is well put together, it is what you would call the 'black belt'. The area between Raleigh, and the OBX is full of low income people who live in trailers, and have homes in flood prone areas as the area east of Goldsboro is filled with tributaries to the major rivers, and connect to the sounds. 

[yoda]

00z UKIE at 96 is basically sitting over OBX... then moves slowly away to the east at 120 as it is weakening

[Saltydog]

Just now, yoda said:

00z UKIE at 96 is basically sitting over OBX

Relax. They're going to get more inland than the OBX. The real mess starts Sunday as we see what we're really playing with here. 

[jburns]

 

8 minutes ago, Saltydog said:

I would imagine this is what gets you in trouble. North Carolina's coastal plain is flood prone, and while it seems it is well put together, it is what you would call the 'black belt'. The area between Raleigh, and the OBX is full of low income people who live in trailers, and have homes in flood prone areas as the area east of Goldsboro is filled with tributaries to the major rivers, and connect to the sounds. 

3

Explain the bolded.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

2 minutes ago, Saltydog said:

I would imagine this is what gets you in trouble. North Carolina's coastal plain is flood prone, and while it seems it is well put together, it is what you would call the 'black belt'. The area between Raleigh, and the OBX is full of low income people who live in trailers, and have homes in flood prone areas as the area east of Goldsboro is filled with tributaries to the major rivers, and connect to the sounds. 

Whoa! I've introduced politics because we live in an era when everything is political.  Cable news ratings are going through the roof and football ratings are dropping like a rock. I can understand people criticizing me for bashing someone like Rick Scott.  My comments were incendiary especially considering the fact that most users on this board are white males and white males in the United States are overwhelmingly Republican.  But you my friend are playing the race card.  People in Jacksonville, North Carolina know what to do when a hurricane approaches or threatens the North Carolina coast.

[Saltydog]

1 minute ago, jburns said:

 

Explain the bolded.

I can grab the census maps for income distribution if you prefer.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Belt_(U.S._region)

[jburns]

2 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Whoa! I've introduced politics because we live in an era when everything is political.  Cable news ratings are going through the roof and football ratings are dropping like a rock. I can understand people criticizing me for bashing someone like Rick Scott.  My comments were incendiary especially considering the fact that most users on this board are white males and white males in the United States are overwhelmingly Republican.  But you my friend are playing the race card.  People in Jacksonville, North Carolina know what to do when a hurricane approaches or threatens the North Carolina coast.

Keep politics out of here.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, Saltydog said:

I can grab the census maps for income distribution if you prefer.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Belt_(U.S._region)

 

I doubt race has anything to do with flood danger.  A simple statement that many poor people live in a threatened area is enough. If you want to post here take this advice to heart. 

[Kelathos]

Ever since Puerto Rico, Maria's eyewall has not been the same. This is visible on GOES 16 Infrared. Maria often has what i can only describe as two vortices circling inside a more rugged looking CDO. I understand it is still a major Hurricane, but its inner dynamic has something misfiring. Is the eye not properly stacked? Or is it something else? I'd love to learn more about what has occurred inside the storm after it emerged back over the ocean.

Such a discussion may be pertinent as to whether Maria can intensify or not. Whether it could filter out that damage during an ERC over the next few days.

[vinylfreak89]

It looked to my untrained eye that there was a little bit of tilting to the NW of the circulation, at least for a while earlier today where the MLC became decoupled. I think the conditions in the last 24-30 hours haven't been ideal once it fully got away from having any land interaction affecting dry air ingestion and inflow, but conditions are improving for a 24-36 hour window, and I imagine we will see the core tighten up and stabilize tomorrow. I don't necessarily think that means intensification, but at least a better internal structure.