shaggy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Jose lingering around causes there to be a break in the ridge that Maria follows north and out to sea. Jose moving away causes the ridge to rebuild and a chance for Maria to hit the US. Yep Jose needs to either dissipate and or move out of the way faster to allow that Ridge to build back. I'm really surprised at the amount of degradation he went through last night on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 965mb extrapolated per recon. 102 kts SFMR unflagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 968mb on the dropsonde. 109kts 1 mb above the surface in the NE eyewall on the dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 59.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 For some reason they don't want to say that it's a cat 3 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. Doing a little hurricane background this morning. Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I would think Jose falling to an ETC already would be a good sign for Maria to come closer to the coast, at least at this early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Was the lowest pressure 964 on that last pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Dropped another 2 mb from the earlier pass. 966 mb now per the dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medville Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 45 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. Doing a little hurricane background this morning. Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity. Sounds like it's within avg to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 31 minutes ago, medville said: Sounds like it's within avg to me. Then you need to brush up on your math. The first two time periods are 24 years..the third is 16 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Master of Disaster said: An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. Doing a little hurricane background this morning. Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity. The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had..... I thought about that as well. And those numbers do not reflect Cat 4 hurricanes that became Cat 5. But the satellite era almost certainly plays a roll in numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had..... I was just about to post the same thing. Unless they've gone back an reanalyzed each storm (and I don't know how you would do such a thing for systems way out in the ocean), the chances that some Cat 4 storms were missed seems pretty high to me. WRT Jose, I'm not sure him weakening to a low end TS will be good enough to allow Maria to strike the US. Unless it pretty much just dies or better yet, moves out altogether, the chances of Maria hitting the US are pretty low. We should know in the next couple/few model cycles if this scenario is a legit possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had..... Great post! I agree on both points....and was thinking the same thing. The monitoring and technology has improved Vastly since the 50's, 60's, and 70's. Which in my opinion would make a huge difference in the results. And Jose is falling apart, and FAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 If Jose meanders around as a ET cyclone, wouldn't that still give a path for Maria to go OTS? the Also the 12z looks better for PR and St. Croix. putting them potentially on the weaker side of Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 New sonde 120mph at the surface and 150 just above the boundary layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 104 kts in NE eyewall on dropsonde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 961 mb per dropsonde. Rapidly intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 mb is a huge drop in just the last 100 or so minutes since the last pass. Update: A 31 kt wind at the surface means the pressure is actually 959 mb.... very rapid fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 000 URNT12 KNHC 181453 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017 A. 18/14:43:30Z B. 14 deg 39 min N 060 deg 01 min W C. 700 mb 2758 m D. 104 kt E. 035 deg 7 nm F. 137 deg 115 kt G. 036 deg 8 nm H. 961 mb I. 11 C / 3056 m J. 16 C / 3041 m K. 10 C / NA L. OPEN SW M. C10 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 0215A MARIA OB 17 MAX FL WIND 115 KT 036 / 8 NM 14:41:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 31 KT ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Hurricane #Maria Advisory 9: Maria Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane. http://go.usa.gov/W3H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 ...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 With winds of 31 knots the dropsonde obviously missed the exact center - probably lower than 961 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Derecho! said: With winds of 31 knots the dropsonde obviously missed the exact center - probably lower than 961 mb. NHC went with 959mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h, land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Looks like concentric eyewalls may be forming on the Martinique radar. Hoping this can thread the needle between Martinique and Dominica... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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