drscottsmith Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 First post here all - trying to learn... What is the difference in the track above when you look at TABD which has a very "jagged" track (with many sharp turns) versus 'most' of the other models which are much smoother in their path - is it a matter of the model's resolution? -scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 3 hours ago, Windspeed said: Maria cleared out a huge symmetrical eye on IR. I always wondered why the CDO and outflow resemble "spikes" emanating outward from the eye. Gravity waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: Am I reading that right -- that Caguas got approx 10 inches in one hour between Sep 20 8:00 and 9:00? OMG. Could be malfunctioning as some have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 clearly no eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I was just trying to explain the difference between just a large hole in the center of a hurricane and a more traditional eye with an actual eyewall. It's going to be a moot point soon anyway as convection is starting to wrap in close to the center again. Its a closed wall on recon at 38 nm. U really need to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 The probability of Maria's making landfall in the U.S. Mainland has declined overnight. The guidance came into somewhat better agreement concerning Jose's fate and, as a consequence, some of the uncertainty concerning Maria's fate was also reduced. Based on hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 8 am position (19.9°N 68.7°W), historical climatology (1851-present) showed approximately half making U.S. landfall. However, that figure significantly overstates the actual probability of Maria's making landfall. When the pool is refined for those that made U.S. landfall and those that didn't, one comes up with the following numbers: Average Longitude at 22.5°N Latitude: U.S. Landfall: 74.6°W (σ=3.0°) No. U.S. Landfall: 70.6°W (σ=2.3°) Average Longitude at 25.0°N Latitude: U.S. Landfall: 77.7°W (σ=3.3°) No. U.S. Landfall: 71.9°W (σ=3.1°) Maria is expected to be at more than 1 standard deviation to the east of average for storms that made U.S. landfall. It is also likely to be fairly close to the mean figure for those that did not make landfall. Overall, the adjusted data set implies a landfall figure of around 20%. Fewer than 20% of the combined EPS and GEFS ensemble members show U.S. landfall. The 9/21 0z run of the ECMWF again indicates that Maria will not make landfall and it did not show the kind of closer call seen on the preceding 9/20 12z run. Considering this data and the statistics for landfalling storms vs. those that did not make U.S. landfall from the climatological sample based on Maria's 8 am position, I believe the probability of U.S. landfall is now about 20%. U.S. landfall is very unlikely. Finally, looking at past storms that were significantly weakened after crossing either Puerto Rico or Hispaniola (implying structural damage to their core), Maria probably won't see an increase in its maximum winds beyond 10 knots to 20 knots from its post-Puerto Rico figure (95 knots). The window of opportunity for intensification will likely begin to close within the next 18-36 hours, so unless a bout of rapid intensification occurs, it is unlikely that Maria will regain strength that exceeds maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) to 115 knots (130 mph). However, intensity forecasting typically has low verification scores, so my confidence in these figures is no better than moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncocean985 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I really like playing with this site: https://www.windy.com/overlays?waves,2017-09-24-15,27.098,-66.094,5,i:p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 It's an eye. End of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 They found 106 kt sfmr in the ne eyewall on latest pass not sure if theyll increase the winds on the next forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Big shift East on the 12z spaghetti models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Big shift East on the 12z spaghetti models Safe to call it an OTS'er at this point... but not before causing widespread and significant damage in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I'm not gonna breathe a sigh of relief until it's after Wednesday and gone. It's probably gonna be fine and stay otc, but models are often off and sometimes way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Last few recon center fixes are already slightly west of forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Looks like they got 960mb on the last dropsonde. If correct I believe that's down 1mb since the last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Also, I was clearly mistaken this morning with my assessment of the eyewall. I apologize for dragging the board down. Sometimes us amateurs need to eat a slice of humble pie and leave it up to the experts. If the staff feels that I should carry this ugly weenie tag then I guess so be it, but I like to think I make positive contributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Maria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the hurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as high as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has remained relatively steady. Although there were higher SFMR winds measured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight meteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running 5-10 kt too high. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Maria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from Hurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so. Therefore, some strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially aggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing. Gradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some increase in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat content over the western Atlantic. Still, Maria is expected to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days. The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. Maria will be moving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Maria is expected to turn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the western Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. The track models continue to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the previous forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Yesterday, the eyewall was in shambles after traversing Puerto Rico. That's the big difference today, it's a huge eye, but there's already an eyewall. Central pressure might be stable, but since we now have an eyewall, there's already a more significant gradient pressure in said eyewall and that's shown as the RMW now show cat 3 winds, whereas yesterday it didn't. Slow gradual strengthening for the next 48 hours is expected. With such a big eye, not only strengthening will be gradual, when the time comes, weakening will be at a slow rate, as big eyes are known to be relatively stable even on adverse conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 000 URNT12 KNHC 211459 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017 A. 21/14:40:50Z B. 20 deg 08 min N 069 deg 05 min W C. 700 mb 2743 m D. 93 kt E. 306 deg 16 nm F. 039 deg 103 kt G. 308 deg 22 nm H. 960 mb I. 11 C / 3049 m J. 15 C / 3047 m K. 12 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C42 N. 1234 / 07 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF303 1215A MARIA OB 17 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 106 KT 132 / 20 NM 14:47:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 160 / 4 KT MAX FL TEMP 18 C 306 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Just now, wxmx said: Yesterday, the eyewall was in shambles after traversing Puerto Rico. That's the big difference today, it's a huge eye, but there's already an eyewall. Central pressure might be stable, but since we now have an eyewall, there's already a more significant gradient pressure in said eyewall and that's shown as the RMW now show cat 3 winds, whereas yesterday it didn't. Slow gradual strengthening for the next 48 hours is expected. With such a big eye, not only strengthening will be gradual, when the time comes, weakening will be at a slow rate, as big eyes are known to be relatively stable even on adverse conditions. Yeah that's where I was mistaken. The ragged appearance of the eye on IR led me to believe that Maria was still trying to rebuild an inner core, however this microwave image as well as recon clearly indicates a large but stable eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 On the 12z GFS, the ridge building into the Eastern US is just a tick stronger, Jose is a tick further South and Maria is a tick further Southwest, through Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: On the 12z GFS, the ridge building into the Eastern US is just a tick stronger, Jose is a tick further South and Maria is a tick further Southwest, through Saturday night. It's going to take more than ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Jose is weaker this run and dissipates faster. As you can see here, the tiny leftover weakness appears to be less. I'm not sure if that will make enough of a difference or if it's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Does Jose really matter at this point? Even if it weakens quicker and is out of the picture, what would pull Maria in? I think yesterday there might have been a slight chance, but now it has the storm like 600 miles OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I think its noise at thia point- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Jose is weaker this run and dissipates faster. As you can see here, the tiny leftover weakness appears to be less. I'm not sure if that will make enough of a difference or if it's just noise. lol Maria is already moving NE by 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Maria Is going to be ots again. There's nothing to pull it to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: lol Maria is already moving NE by 96 Well yeah, it gets stuck under the ridge, but eventually those Westerly winds coming across Florida help push it East. Just comes down to whether you believe that's strong enough to influence the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 So on Wednesday Maria actually makes a turn towards the West. The trough building into the Northern plains is being held back more. I think eventually it's going to win out and kick Maria OTS, but it could get closer to the coast than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Maria moving north of due west between hours 138-144.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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