Paragon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 3 hours ago, Windspeed said: Yes, the general idea here is to note that they reading above record. They may not be reporting correctly but anything above record is alarming. Those levels have been in data sets for many years as you would expect for a tropical island in the USGS database. The 1985 event set most of those records. 31.67 inches of rain peaked in the Toro Negro State Forest and is the record within a 24 hour period. Neither Hurricane Georges or Hugo came close. Maria may end up exceding it if the southerly onshore pivot persist all evening. Not having radar estimates or comms established sucks. It may be several days before we really grasp the brunt of impact with isolated communities. Reports now coming in of close to 40" of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point. It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area. I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst Agree....I don't think its a major threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree....I don't think its a major threat. Might be like Jose- remember Jose was 150 mph at one point too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: The key is that trough moving across the Rockies around hr 162. It certainly is deep enough to pull Maria inland rather than push her ots. The main issue I'm seeing now on the GFS is timing. What are the chances that Maria does what Jose is doing, and just stalls out offshore and loops around until the trough comes in and takes both Jose and Maria away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I’m surprised that the NWS PR office has managed to stay up this whole time. Obviously they’re running on generator, but I figured they would have lost comms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 minute ago, David Reimer said: I’m surprised that the NWS PR office has managed to stay up this whole time. Obviously they’re running on generator, but I figured they would have lost comms. Not anymore. MFL has taken over on backup within the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Finally got a decent MW pass over PR for rain rates and, unsurprisingly, they're extreme. The pass missed the eastern island but it's close enough to get an idea what is occuring. Keep in mind, microwave data estimates may not line up exactly with geography. This isn't nearly as accurate as radar estimates either, it's just the best we have right now with respect to remote sensing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Going to look good on Satellite even if it misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Finally got a decent MW pass over PR for rain rates and, unsurprisingly, they're extreme. The pass missed the eastern island but it's close enough to get an idea what is occuring. Wow, that's horrible. How long will it be before we get a complete MW pass over the island? Some of the deeper reds seem to be near San Juan, even though the pass didn't reach the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Wow, that's horrible. How long will it be before we get a complete MW pass over the island? Some of the deeper reds seem to be near San Juan, even though the pass didn't reach the city. Keep in mind, microwave data estimates may not line up exactly with geography. This isn't nearly as accurate as radar estimates either, it's just the best we have right now with respect to remote sensing. The next pass may miss the entire island or get all of it. There are several polar orbiting satellites that scan. I haven't studied their time syncs, I generally just check at random times. It's difficult to get the rain rate product scan where you want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Josh is back online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Josh is back online. Great news! I just messaged him on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree....I don't think its a major threat. Not sure I agree with this. The storm may never be what it once was, but it doesn't take a cat 4 or 5 to cause tremendous issues in the mid-Atlantic and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The next pass may miss the entire island or get all of it. There are several polar orbiting satellites that scan. I haven't studied their time syncs, I generally just check at random times. It's difficult to get the rain rate product scan where you want it. Ever tried Gpredict? Have never looked for these particular sats but ya may be able to better predict passes with it (better than guessing anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: It doesn't seem to making much northward progress, eastern DR is also getting pounded right now. As noted this morning Maria's west job over the Island dramatically increased the risk to DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Gloria was the first hyped weather event in the nation's history. The hype factor continues to increase because cable news ratings go through the roof during major weather events. Also, local tv news is a declining business but when big weather events happen local tv news returns to its 1980s era glory days when local news was dominant.Ha! Interesting point. During Irma's FL landfall I found myself hunting for a local Palm Beach County news affiliate (friends there riding out the storm) and ended up watching WPBF's live feed for quite a while. They were actually doing a really good job tracking tornado sightings, warnings, potential areas of concern, and giving very specific details. (Like, which intersection and what direction a given tornado had been sighted--this was when the east coast of Florida was getting the "bad" side of the storm.) They were really on their game, with relatively minimal hype. Although I suppose it stopped being helpful when everyone lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I didn't realize Maria had changed her name to Gloria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Back to the topic everyone. Take the other stuff to the banter thread plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Some of the flooding vids out of Puerto Rico are downright terrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Some of the flooding vids out of Puerto Rico are downright terrifying.Do you have any links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Might be like Jose- remember Jose was 150 mph at one point too. I think it will be like Jose. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/puerto-rico-devastated-maria-poised-to.html Sorry for the kindergarten graphics, but I'm a primitive hobbyist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I have so much family in Puerto Rico and have been so many times. I know the geography very well. The interior areas are getting absolutely wiped out, never seen anything like it, it is like the apocalypse. Flooding on the rate of Harvey in only one day. The destruction is going to be unimaginable. It breaks my heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Just now, Scorpion said: I have so much family in Puerto Rico and have been so many times. I know the geography very well. The interior areas are getting absolutely wiped out, never seen anything like it, it is like the apocalypse. Flooding on the rate of Harvey in only one day. The destruction is going to be unimaginable. It breaks my heart. My colleague's 80 yo mother lives in San Juan metro...east side. She was blessed because she if fine, and her house was not damaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it will be like Jose. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/puerto-rico-devastated-maria-poised-to.html Sorry for the kindergarten graphics, but I'm a primitive hobbyist. I like it- no need to apologize, I am too :-) Fortunately high intelligence and creativity is also distributed amongst us hobbyists (can't teach either quality.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Scorpion said: I have so much family in Puerto Rico and have been so many times. I know the geography very well. The interior areas are getting absolutely wiped out, never seen anything like it, it is like the apocalypse. Flooding on the rate of Harvey in only one day. The destruction is going to be unimaginable. It breaks my heart. Worse than Harvey in some ways because of the higher elevations leading to landslides. Already hearing reports of 40" and it's not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I hope that irma and maria serve as a reminder that the basics still hold true for tropical cyclones- land damages tropical systems.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, LVLion77 said: I hope that irma and maria serve as a reminder that the basics still hold true for tropical cyclones- land damages tropical systems. and vice-versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Extrapolated pressure of 957 on last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, LVLion77 said: I hope that irma and maria serve as a reminder that the basics still hold true for tropical cyclones- land damages tropical systems. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The folks in Coral Gables at the NHC need to learn this as well. I want everyone to take a moment and watch clips of Dr. Bob Sheets during Hugo and Andrew and remember what a strong leader and communicator he was. Someone needs to go in and take control of the NHC and be able to go on tv during a major hurricane and be able to articulate a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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