NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Hour 174 200 miles east of Norfolk moving WNW, and she's a monster It still gets kicked out by the trough in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It still gets kicked out by the trough in the end. Trough a lot slower through 192. Will have to see if that is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It still gets kicked out by the trough in the end. Yes but a very close call none the less , there's still plenty of time for the models to figure out the upper air pattern. The trend today is for a slowing moving Maria up the coast and a much weaker Jose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Very Fluid and evolving situation for sure...interesting. Lots of "What if's" left to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Flooding ongoing in Puerto Rico: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/weather/856475/hurricane-maria-damage-path-2017-puerto-rico-river-flood-rio-grande-de-loiza-storm-latest/amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The coolest part of the 12z Euro run is when Maria absorbs a leftover lobe of Jose vorticity just like Jose did with Irma last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Papa Joe said: I tend to believe it. If you look at the gauges on the east of the island, you'll see the peak flood already starting to recede. That's what you'd expect with steep terrain. Note that the streams on the west are still on the way up. Lots of the terrain on the northern half of the island is steep ravines that feed quickly into the coastal plain. The rivers are super-flashy, though historically used to having lots of rain during the summer. I would imagine the ravines got completely full and probably scoured out whatever was there (hopefully few buildings and people, though I worry that was not the case), carrying everything in their path down toward the coast. Given the steep terrain, how could a sensor be positioned to measure both low flows and these crazy numbers that are being reported, without being submerged under rushing water and debris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 100% of the island is without power. Not surprising https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.38b085fdf7d7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Lots of the terrain on the northern half of the island is steep ravines that feed quickly into the coastal plain. The rivers are super-flashy, though historically used to having lots of rain during the summer. I would imagine the ravines got completely full and probably scoured out whatever was there (hopefully few buildings and people, though I worry that was not the case), carrying everything in their path down toward the coast. Given the steep terrain, how could a sensor be positioned to measure low flows and these crazy numbers that are being reported, without being submerged under rushing water and debris? Most gauges work based on the pressure water exerts on them internally (typically pushing a gas bubble through a tube inside the gauge). That relates to water level and streamflow. The actual transmission of the data can be done from a safe distance/height from the water source, and can be done through solar energy and satellite, so the loss of electricity is not always a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong. Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out. I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong. Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out. I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now Most of the models show it getting pretty close to shore, too, which isn't going to help. Norfolk area is used to tropical storms and the occasional weakened Cat 1, and it's also predominantly military families. Based on my experience living there for 25 years or so, if people don't think they need to evacuate then many/most aren't going to, and the bridges and tunnels in the area make evacuation really problematic. A big storm coming right up to them and then turning would either be a PR problem (due to evacuation that didn't need to happen) or an infrastructure capacity problem (if people aren't told to evacuate because of the curve and then it never curves). If this were to hit as a Cat 2-3, I don't think they'd see it coming. I would assume this to be less of a problem if it hits more south of that area (since they've dealt with stronger storms) or north of that area (since they get so few hits they would take it more seriously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong. Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out. I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now I think bermuda ridges can to be under modeled too. Seems like cold regions like Greenland, models tend to overdue the ridging and warm regions like the west Atlantic tend be to underdone. I have zero data to back this up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Looks like the pressure has begun falling again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 nobodys talking about all the flood rescues that must be going on now. sooo many of these rivers are 20 feet above their record levels ! this is astonishing. hover over, to look at current levels http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 looks like a lot of the gauges were edited, I don't see the 80 foot one anymore. still many are in record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 It will get it's time to get it's act back together. Disruption was not minimal by any means. Slow and gradual strengthening the next 24 hours are expected, since atmospheric and oceanic conditions are very favorable. Afterwards, conditions are still favorable, just not as much as currently, but I expect continued intensification up to the next 72 hours. Borderline cat 3/4 is my guess for it's next peak, before slowly unraveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong. Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out. I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now However there are many more ways for this to miss the US, than hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: However there are many more ways for this to miss the US, then hit it. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 32 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: nobodys talking about all the flood rescues that must be going on now. sooo many of these rivers are 20 feet above their record levels ! this is astonishing. hover over, to look at current levels http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sju Not to underplay the flooding, but I don't see a single guage that is 20 feet above record levels...CIAP4 is +17 and COMP4 is +15...those are the two highest presently relative to records shown on the charts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Not to underplay the flooding, but I don't see a single guage that is 20 feet above record levels...CIAP4 is +17 and COMP4 is +15...those are the two highest presently relative to records shown on the charts... I think it makes sense to toss that one reading on the Rio Grande de Manati until proven otherwise. It doesn't match with the readings before and after at that gauge, upstream and downstream on that river, or to any of the rivers in the area. The COMP4 is more troubling because it isn't just one anomalous reading but it's at such an extraordinary level I'm not sure what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z spaghetti models These are the 12Z runs. The 18Z have more models bending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point. It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area. I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I think it makes sense to toss that one reading on the Rio Grande de Manati until proven otherwise. It doesn't match with the readings before and after at that gauge, upstream and downstream on that river, or to any of the rivers in the area.Yes, the general idea here is to note that they reading above record. They may not be reporting correctly but anything above record is alarming. Those levels have been in data sets for many years as you would expect for a tropical island in the USGS database. The 1985 event set most of those records. 31.67 inches of rain peaked in the Toro Negro State Forest and is the record within a 24 hour period. Neither Hurricane Georges or Hugo came close. Maria may end up exceding it if the southerly onshore pivot persist all evening. Not having radar estimates or comms established sucks. It may be several days before we really grasp the brunt of impact with isolated communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.8N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point. It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area. I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst Remember how much Gloria weakened moving up the east coast in 1985, coincidentally around this time period? At one time east of the Bahamas, recon measured one of the lower pressures ever found in an Atlantic tropical cyclone. Of course that has been surpassed many times in the last 32 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 NHC OFCL track more N of verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve mission for their incredible service today. After beginning their mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first moved back off the coast. The data collected by the crew was incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for their effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point. It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area. I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst We'll see how quickly Maria rebuilds her core now that the center is back over the very warm waters in a low shear environment. While the structure took a hit, it's entering waters >28C and shear should remain low at least for the next 72hrs. In fact the shear is still decreasing out ahead of the track, with the ULL near Jamaica actually resulting in diffluence aloft. I could see it making another run at Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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