Hurricane Maria

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maria might have a little influence, but Jose currently has the larger circulation. Jose's IKE is also quite a bit higher than Maria's despite Maria's intensity. That also suggests that Jose is more likely to have a greater impact on Maria's track than Maria would have on Jose's track. Jose is also leaving a weakness in the ridging that might otherwise be more expansive, thus allowing Maria greater opportunity to find that larger weakness.

Thanks for that very useful piece of info, Don- it's very intuitive that IKE would also be a factor in storm track and a storm with a larger IKE would influence a storm with a smaller IKE even if the smaller IKE storm had a higher intensity.

 

[wxmx]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maria might have a little influence, but Jose currently has the larger circulation. Jose's IKE is also quite a bit higher than Maria's despite Maria's intensity. That also suggests that Jose is more likely to have a greater impact on Maria's track than Maria would have on Jose's track. Jose is also leaving a weakness in the ridging that might otherwise be more expansive, thus allowing Maria greater opportunity to find that larger weakness.

That is now, but Maria's circulation is expected to grow as it gains latitude, while forecasts for Jose show it gradually weakening. Forecasts show that Maria will be the dominant feature, by far, in case of an interaction.

0z Euro and 12z GFS

[Drz1111]

16 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Eye is still partially inland, but looking at data from recon, pressure is probably up in the 950s

I think the ll vortex is jumping to the coast b/c of the lee cyclogensis.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, wxmx said:

That is now, but Maria's circulation is expected to grow as it gains latitude, while forecasts for Jose show it gradually weakening. Forecasts show that Maria will be the dominant feature, by far, in case of an interaction.

0z Euro and 12z GFS

Ultimately, yes. But by then Maria will already have found the weakness in the ridge (due in part to Jose's current expansive circulation) and Jose's remaining circulation will still have enough influence to assist in Maria's turning out to sea. IMO, it's no coincidence that the earlier GFS runs that showed Maria posing the greatest chance of landfall were those that also featured much faster weakening in Jose, along with its faster departure from the scene so to speak.

[wxeyeNH]

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

His twitter account has been inactive for the last 8 hours. He had been giving updates at least once an hour prior to that. Here is his last post.

Josh Morgerman‏Verified account @iCyclone  8h8 hours ago

More

4:30 am. Building groaning. Airplane sounds. Pressure falling like a rock. 967 mb #MARIA @WeatherNation

I'm guessing the cell towers might be out on the SE side of the island where he was.  This will probably be one of his more unpleasant chases.  Might take awhile for him to get back to San Juan.  Getting a flight out of the island might take awhile too.  

[wxmx]

8 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

I think the ll vortex is jumping to the coast b/c of the lee cyclogensis.

Visible shows the eye is almost fully offshore now. When recon approached, they got into part of the eye, but winds were still above 20 kts in there. Eye looks big, probably around 30 nm or so. Highest winds were 89FL/87SFMR, but I expect higher winds in the NE quad. My WAG is low end cat 3 right now.

[wxmx]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ultimately, yes. But by then Maria will already have found the weakness in the ridge (due in part to Jose's current expansive circulation) and Jose's remaining circulation will still have enough influence to assist in Maria's turning out to sea. IMO, it's no coincidence that the earlier GFS runs that showed Maria posing the greatest chance of landfall were those that also featured much faster weakening in Jose, along with its faster departure from the scene so to speak.

On that I agree.

[NJwx85]

12z GEFS

[Santa Clause]

Before going on to US impact, does this have appeared to be historically destructive storm in PR? Seeing pretty spotty information.

[bluewave]

In Guayama, on Puerto Rico's southern coast, video clips posted on social media showed a street turned into a river of muddy floodwaters. In the community of Juan Matos, located in Cataño, west of San Juan, 80 percent of the structures were destroyed, the mayor of Cataño told El Nuevo Dia, and half of the municipal employees lost their homes.

"The area is completely flooded. Water got into the houses. The houses have no roof. Most of them are made of wood and zinc, and electric poles fell on them," the mayor told the publication.

In the capital of San Juan, buildings shook and glass windows shattered from the force of the storm. Residents of some high-rise apartments sought refuge in bathrooms and first-floor lobbies, but even those who sought out safe ground found themselves vulnerable.

Buildings that meet the island's newer construction codes, established around 2011, should be able to weather the winds, Rosselló said. But wooden homes in flood-prone areas "have no chance," he predicted.

Macarena Gil Gandia, a resident of Hato Rey, a business district in San Juan, helped her mother clean out water that had started flooding the kitchen of her second-floor apartment at dawn.

"There are sounds coming from all sides," Gil Gandia said in a text message. "The building is moving! And we're only on the second floor, imagine the rest!"

Parts of Hato Rey were underwater. An electric gate for her building in the neighborhood was blown off, Gil Gandia said.

In the lobby of Ciqala Luxury Home Suites in Miramar, a neighborhood in San Juan, Maria Gil de Lamadrid waited with her husband in the lobby as the rain and wind pounded on the hotel's facade. The door of the hotel's parking garage flopped violently in the wind. The sounds of the storm were so loud that it was hard for hotel guests to hear each other speak.

Gil de Lamadrid spent the night in the hotel after evacuating her nearby 16th floor waterfront apartment, which has been prone to flooding during previous hurricanes. But even in a luxury hotel room, Gil de Lamadrid could not evade flooding; on Wednesday morning, inches of water began to seep into her hotel room through the balcony doors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.13ca24280b97

[wxmx]

959.4 extrapolated MSLP and 97FL/91SFMR in the NE quad. There's a chance it might be downgraded all the way to high end Cat 2

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Before going on to US impact, does this have appeared to be historically destructive storm in PR? Seeing pretty spotty information.

TWC said 4 to 6 months to get electricity up for the entire island which doesn't have power now. Just that alone is destructive to everyday life for millions of people. 

[olafminesaw]

It's pretty clear to me the EWRC wasn't really a better case scenario for PR

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Storm is really expanding in size. very symmetrical. back to Cat 4 next 24-48 hours. 

[jm1220]

The TV cameras are all centered on San Juan, but I can't imagine what devastation we'll see from the rest of the island, in poor communities not built to withstand a major hurricane and flood prone areas. The island is also bankrupt financially. 

[wxeyeNH]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In Guayama, on Puerto Rico's southern coast, video clips posted on social media showed a street turned into a river of muddy floodwaters. In the community of Juan Matos, located in Cataño, west of San Juan, 80 percent of the structures were destroyed, the mayor of Cataño told El Nuevo Dia, and half of the municipal employees lost their homes.

"The area is completely flooded. Water got into the houses. The houses have no roof. Most of them are made of wood and zinc, and electric poles fell on them," the mayor told the publication.

In the capital of San Juan, buildings shook and glass windows shattered from the force of the storm. Residents of some high-rise apartments sought refuge in bathrooms and first-floor lobbies, but even those who sought out safe ground found themselves vulnerable.

Buildings that meet the island's newer construction codes, established around 2011, should be able to weather the winds, Rosselló said. But wooden homes in flood-prone areas "have no chance," he predicted.

Macarena Gil Gandia, a resident of Hato Rey, a business district in San Juan, helped her mother clean out water that had started flooding the kitchen of her second-floor apartment at dawn.

"There are sounds coming from all sides," Gil Gandia said in a text message. "The building is moving! And we're only on the second floor, imagine the rest!"

Parts of Hato Rey were underwater. An electric gate for her building in the neighborhood was blown off, Gil Gandia said.

In the lobby of Ciqala Luxury Home Suites in Miramar, a neighborhood in San Juan, Maria Gil de Lamadrid waited with her husband in the lobby as the rain and wind pounded on the hotel's facade. The door of the hotel's parking garage flopped violently in the wind. The sounds of the storm were so loud that it was hard for hotel guests to hear each other speak.

Gil de Lamadrid spent the night in the hotel after evacuating her nearby 16th floor waterfront apartment, which has been prone to flooding during previous hurricanes. But even in a luxury hotel room, Gil de Lamadrid could not evade flooding; on Wednesday morning, inches of water began to seep into her hotel room through the balcony doors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.13ca24280b97

Until helicopters can survey damage it is impossible to know exactly how bad this storm was.  my guess is that it is going to be catastrophic.  The media has been camped out at the best hotels in San Juan.  When I visited Puerto Rico and toured the countryside there were so many poor towns with crappy construction.  These vast areas are where the real damage will be.  Power is out so information will be very spotty for a couple of days.  Also the power grid is so exposed.  Unlike the US mainland with Irma you can't just bring in crews from other areas.  Power will be out for many weeks, months..   Also lets not forget Dominica.  I haven't even looked today to see what exactly happened there.  

[Santa Clause]

4 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

TWC said 4 to 6 months to get electricity up for the entire island which doesn't have power now. Just that alone is destructive to everyday life for millions of people. 

Thanks, seems often in these treads people pop onto where's next and if the place isn't completely wiped off the map it could've been worse. Appreciate the posts and thoughts and hope that people of Puerto Rico receive the aid that they need.

[wxmx]

Quote

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 18:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 17:40:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°32'N 66°56'W (18.5333N 66.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 58 statute miles (93 km) to the W (279°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,744m (9,003ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 22° at 85kts (From the NNE at ~ 97.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 17:50:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 11kts (From the SSW at 13mph)

 

[wxmx]

2pm Advisory has it as a 100 kt Cat 3 hurricane.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Until helicopters can survey damage it is impossible to know exactly how bad this storm was.  my guess is that it is going to be catastrophic.  The media has been camped out at the best hotels in San Juan.  When I visited Puerto Rico and toured the countryside there were so many poor towns with crappy construction.  These vast areas are where the real damage will be.  Power is out so information will be very spotty for a couple of days.  Also the power grid is so exposed.  Unlike the US mainland with Irma you can't just bring in crews from other areas.  Power will be out for many weeks, months..   Also lets not forget Dominica.  I haven't even looked today to see what exactly happened there.  

Unfortunately, the aerial views look like Homestead after Andrew.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/dominica-pictures-show-total-destruction-after-hurricane-maria-n802931

[TriPol]

Somebody give these recon pilots medals. They've done a terrific job flying into and giving us valuable data of two Category 5's and a Category 4 hurricane.

[Dunkman]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Somebody give these recon pilots medals. They've done a terrific job flying into and giving us valuable data of two Category 5's and a Category 4 hurricane.

No kidding. They've been working multiple storms for weeks now with no break.

[Santa Clause]

The stuff coming out of Puerto Rico in drips is sounding like pretty high end damage.

[olafminesaw]

Intense

 

[Windspeed]

This event is long from over. Note the intense CCs training directly over mountainous terrain off of the Caribbean. We will not have coms from the south facing slopes and low lying communites for a while. I have a great fear of mudflows being the big killer as this event progresses through the evening. There are some pretty steep and unstable slopes to contend with the already high precipitation that has occurred. Some people have a natural tendency to feel optimistic after landfall. I won't for several days. A tropical wave in the 1980s killed hundereds in the same location. Not trying to overhype or be an alarmnist. It's just a bad mix of geology and water in an event such as this and we are not done until Maria has pulled quite a good distance to the WNW. Hopefully people got away from mudflow prone areas. Unfortunately, that geography makes up a lot of the south facing slopes.

[NJwx85]

The Euro trended stronger with the SE ridge. Let's see if that makes a difference with the trough.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro trended stronger with the SE ridge. Let's see if that makes a difference with the trough.

 

Still a bit of a weakness left by Jose at 144.

[Ginx snewx]

57 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm guessing the cell towers might be out on the SE side of the island where he was.  This will probably be one of his more unpleasant chases.  Might take awhile for him to get back to San Juan.  Getting a flight out of the island might take awhile too.  

https://twitter.com/radioislatv/status/910542313318961152

[Neblizzard]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro trended stronger with the SE ridge. Let's see if that makes a difference with the trough.

Hour 174 200 miles east of Norfolk moving WNW, and she's a monster 

[yoda]

12z EURO - 192 still sitting off the MA coast by 200 miles or so... not a large amount of movement between 168 and 192.. gets booted NE by the trough and out toward Nova Scotia at 216