Hurricane Maria

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

The slower core organization of Maria developing a closed eyewall may turn out to be a blessing for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Montserrat getting a hurricane versus major hurricane. Of course Montserrat has the bonus threat of mudflows off of Soufriere Hills volcano.

 

Wouldn't say that yet,  a lot of storms start RI around 980mb.   There best luck is if it forms a pinhole eye and sneaks between Islands.

[Windspeed]

Wouldn't say that yet,  a lot of storms start RI around 980mb.   There best luck is if it forms a pinhole eye and sneaks between Islands.

 

 

I am aware. However, the current steady trend of intensification beats it already going through rapid intensification. Yes it could close off the eyewall and bomb out tonight/tomorrow. But just looking for positives and if it remains a slower intensification might not undergo RI until past those particular islands. Still a dangerous situation.

 

 

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

Wouldn't say that yet,  a lot of storms start RI around 980mb.   There best luck is if it forms a pinhole eye and sneaks between Islands.
 

I am aware. However, the current steady trend of intensidication beats it already going through rapid intensification. Yes it could go close off and bomb out tonight/tomorrow. But just looking for positives and if it remains a slower intensification might not undergo RI until past those particular islands. Still a dangerous situation.

Yeah, hopefully the next 27hrs isn't enough to get it up to 180mph, but you never know this season.

[donsutherland1]

With now Hurricane Maria continuing to add latitude, the kind of tracks that took storms that originated in an area within 100 nautical miles of Maria's formation safely south of the U.S. into the Gulf of Mexico are increasingly outliers in the historical climatology dataset. Given the previous ensemble data, such tracks were unlikely. Once those tracks were excluded, Maria's probability of landfall was roughly 2-in-5. 

Since 1851, 38% of the hurricanes that formed in the August 15-October 15 period and passed within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 5 pm position (13.8°N 57.5°W) made U.S. landfall. 63% of such cases saw landfall on the East Coast from Florida to North Carolina. 25% made landfall in southwestern Florida. 

The 12z ensembles show a reduced prospect of landfall. But the events that lead to that outcome are highly complex and, in part, dependent on Jose's fate. Therefore, I believe the climatological position of an approximately 40% of U.S. landfall still looks reasonable. Such landfall would be favored to occur on the U.S. East Coast with the Florida-North Carolina area most at risk. 
 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

having fun...

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/Hurricane-Jose
Analog 1, happened a month later, not as deep. 

analog 2, westward track from north
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998/Major-Hurricane-Georges

Hugo, moving west and earlier intensification 
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1989/Major-Hurricane-Hugo

earlier intensification
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1979/Major-Hurricane-David

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/Major-Hurricane-Cleo

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1963/Hurricane-Edith

Best analog:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1950/Major-Hurricane-Dog

 

3 storms since 1935 strengthened rapidly where Maria is expected: Cleo, Edith, Dog

(All 7 are ENSO cold cycle times)

IMO, the 500 mb pattern argues against Dog's being a good analog.

[hawkeye_wx]

Maria's eye has entered Martinique's radar view.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

[Superstorm93]

MW pass nailed the center. Looks like a pretty tight core, as recon showed as well. 

 

[Morris]

 

[Amped]

Guadeloupe radar shows a the  the eye trying to close off now even though I don't see it on goes16.

Goes 16 does show several mesos circling the CDO though.

[Windspeed]

Guadeloupe radar shows a the  the eye trying to close off now even though I don't see it on goes16.

Goes 16 does show several mesos circling the CDO though.

And what a tiny CDO it is...

[hawkeye_wx]

Maria easily shook off the morning convective hiccup and is currently producing very intense convection around the eye.  If this continues all night, I would think the morning recon plane will find the pressure down at least ten millibars.

While earlier it appeared Guadeloupe would be the target, it is now looking more likely Dominica will be hit.  The latest euro and gfs both track over Dominica and Radar this evening shows the eye moving barely north of due west.

[Morris]

 

[Superstorm93]

Maria up to 75 knots per ATCF 

[shaggy]

16 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Maria up to 75 knots per ATCF 

With the improvement on satellite and the nice cdo forming right over a tight core she has the opportunity to explode. Can't see much that would stop her from really taking off now.

[Marmot]

[Amped]

Radar goes 16 show a larger eyewall trying to form.  They are now in good agreement.  Centers still look misaligned, the dominant one is to E on the NE side of the CDO.

[Superstorm93]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Radar goes 16 show a larger eyewall trying to form.  They are now in good agreement.  Centers still look misaligned, the dominant one is to E on the NE side of the CDO.

 

[Superstorm93]

This would be incredibly bad 

 

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Maria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly
shear.  However, all indications are that the shear should diminish
during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid
strengthening.  The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model
forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance
of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.  Based on this, the
intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a
major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h.  Late in
the forecast period, a combination of land interaction and
increasing shear should cause some weakening.  The new intensity
forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall
agreement with the HWRF.

 

INIT  18/0300Z 14.2N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.7N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.4N  61.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N  62.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 16.9N  63.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 18.5N  67.0W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 96H  22/0000Z 20.0N  69.5W  115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  23/0000Z 22.0N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH  

[shaggy]

As long as they keep Jose doing the loop I think we see Maria go safely OTS. Doesn't matter for the Antilles as they are going to take another beating from a major cane again.

[donsutherland1]

At 11 pm, Maria continued to add latitude to its track. As a result, its position of 14.2°N 58.4°W was north of such hurricanes as Dog (1951) and Janet (1955) at 58.4° longitude. That trend is expected to continued based on the guidance, which is in strong agreement. As a result, the probability of Maria's being a storm that tracks largely westward into the Gulf of Mexico and perhaps toward Mexico is small and continuing to decline. Overall, historical climatology suggests that the probability of U.S. landfall (CONUS, as Puerto Rico remains at an elevated risk of landfall) is increasing. However, as the ensembles showed a reduction in that probability, there's little reason for me to change my earlier thinking that Maria has about a 40% probability of U.S. landfall. Should such landfall take place, the East Coast remains at the greatest risk.

[MattPetrulli]

4 minutes ago, shaggy said:

As long as they keep Jose doing the loop I think we see Maria go safely OTS. Doesn't matter for the Antilles as they are going to take another beating from a major cane again.

Wayyy too early to make any calls on OTS or LF currently. 

[shaggy]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Wayyy too early to make any calls on OTS or LF currently. 

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.

[Amped]

Call Maybe premature but I think I can see the outline of an eye on goes 16.

[Amped]

 

 

Swatted away from the SE coast this run.

[USCG RS]

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.

The difference with this is that she will likely be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents a different scenario and with the WAR likely remaining strong, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, even if he is able to make the loop. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC. 

[shaggy]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

The difference with this is that she will likely be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents a different scenario and with the WAR likely remaining strong, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, even if he is able to make the loop. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC. 

We either need dissipation or for Jose to scoot east and allow the ridge to rebuild. One thing is for certain. Jose's satellite appearance just went to garbage in a quick minute. He is completely sheared out mess right now. It almost looks like he has become decoupled with the mid level center moving NE and LLC slowly moving north still. Its hard to tell without good visible imagery.

[Amped]

Euro kicks it OTS because of Jose.  GFS kicks it OTS because the gulf coast troff won't go negative. 

That is the oddest looking Sat presentation I've ever seen.  Looks like an apple.

[Morris]

Up to 85 kts on Dvorak.

[jm1220]

7 hours ago, shaggy said:

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.

Jose lingering around causes there to be a break in the ridge that Maria follows north and out to sea. Jose moving away causes the ridge to rebuild and a chance for Maria to hit the US. 

[allgame830]

Sorry for asking this again... when is the next recon? If someone can send me a link I will be sure to save it this time!!

also the T# estimate if someone has that as well.... 

thanks in advance!