NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: They were removed enough from the landfall location that the wind should have weakened by the time the maximum winds reached them. I agree that they probably didn't get sustained cat 5 winds there, but they probably gusted over 140MPH. Not sure if we'll ever know since it appears the equipment failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/?s=maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: This post is an excellent lessons as to why you don't blackbox interpret products you don't understand. Fair enough. I dont know much about Tropical for sure. Would you like to explain to me what is wrong with the product when it is showing decreasing winds just before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I agree that they probably didn't get sustained cat 5 winds there, but they probably gusted over 140MPH. Not sure if we'll ever know since it appears the equipment failed. Of course they didnt get 5 winds at landfall since it wasnt a 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Of course they didnt get 5 winds at landfall since it wasnt a 5... But I bet the higher terrain just to the Southeast did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Fair enough. I dont know much about Tropical for sure. Would you like to explain to me what is wrong with the product when it is showing decreasing winds just before landfall? This is the epitome of "read more, post less" The cyclone was just finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave imagery you posted shows the new eyewall taking over and the inner eyewall dying out. If this had been able to spend a few more hours over water Maria would have likely been stronger at landfall in PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: This is the epitome of "read more, post less" The cyclone was just finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave imagery you posted shows the new eyewall taking over and the inner eyewall dying out. If this had been able to spend a few more hours over water Marie would have likely been stronger. Ok. I understand what an ERC is. But that still doesnt make my comment wrong. The wind speed was decreasing at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Gusting to 112 mph at Arecibo with the surge coming up. https://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ok. I understand what an ERC is. But that still doesnt make my comment wrong. The wind speed was decreasing at landfall. You're partially correct, and partially incorrect. The winds in the original eyewall were decreasing. That's where the 175MPH winds were yesterday afternoon. At the same time, the winds in the outer or new eyewall were increasing, but there wasn't enough time for the winds to increase back to where they had been in the inner eyewall prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Ok. I understand what an ERC is. But that still doesnt make my comment wrong. The wind speed was decreasing at landfall. It had weakened, but the weakening was done, as the ERC had completed...essentially, PR caught Marua at the best possible time relative to its internal structural cycle, as I had anticipated yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 10 am update (she is moving at a pretty good clip) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You're partially correct, and partially incorrect. The winds in the original eyewall were decreasing. That's where the 175MPH winds were yesterday afternoon. At the same time, the winds in the outer or new eyewall were increasing, but there wasn't enough time for the winds to increase back to where they had been in the inner eyewall prior to landfall. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Marie has made a western move right over the Island, while certainly not a Cat 5, that move by it has spread its hurricane force winds over the entire island. The Dominican Republic is now at a higher risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I think it's a mistake to thing of an ERC as a "weakening" process, unless it's combined with unfavorable environmental factors like shear, dry air or cooler SSTs. Yes the maximum sustained winds drop off (temporarily) because they were located in the inner eyewall which goes away. BUT the IKE of the cyclone may stay consistent or even increase as the windfield expands. Add to that, the new/previously "outer" eywall was maturing and likely capable of mixing down everything it had. (points already made by others as I was typing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csager Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Aceribo Tide Station. Hopefully it holds up...panels are probably gone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It had weakened, but the weakening was done, as the ERC had completed...essentially, PR caught Marua at the best possible time relative to its internal structural cycle, as I had anticipated yesterday. It actually made things worse, it wasn't the extreme winds in the tight core that was going to cause Island wide extensive infrastructure damage, it was the spreading out of those winds, the rapid cooling of tops at landfall exacerbated the rainfall, what was a tight core with cane winds confined to a 30 mile radius spread those out 100's of miles. There is nothing good save for the areas that would have gotten wind speeds 25 mph higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Don, interesting list of analogs we can come up with, major hurricanes that hit PR and what they did afterwards? 1928 Cat 5, hit Fla "Lake Okeechobee Hurricane", 1932 Cat 4 as you stated, went into Central America as a TS, 1989 Hugo went on to hit SC as a Cat 4, and now we have Maria. Since 1851, 15 hurricanes made landfall in Puerto Rico. 60% went on to make U.S. landfall. However, 2/3 of then were at or west of 70°W longitude when they reached 20°N latitude and 78% were at or west of 74°W longitude when they reached 25°N latitude. Almost all of the guidance has Maria passing east of those benchmarks. Therefore, based on those benchmarks and the guidance, there is a much lower likelihood of U.S. landfall than what might be implied solely from climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Marie has made a western move right over the Island, while certainly not a Cat 5, that move by it has spread its hurricane force winds over the entire island. The Dominican Republic is now at a higher risk Also not good news for Turks and Caicos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It actually made things worse, it wasn't the extreme winds in the tight core that was going to cause Island wide extensive infrastructure damage, it was the spreading out of those winds, the rapid cooling of tops at landfall exacerbated the rainfall, what was a tight core with cane winds confined to a 30 mile radius spread those out 100's of miles. There is nothing good save for the areas that would have gotten wind speeds 25 mph higher Yeah i think this is true. I feel like things got worse for san juan with the new dominant oew not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medville Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Apologies if repeat... two pages per hour makes it hard to keep up while at work. Video from St Croix, USVI this morning. Damaged, not destroyed. eye passed about 10 mi to the SW. https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/910480473562009607 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It actually made things worse, it wasn't the extreme winds in the tight core that was going to cause Island wide extensive infrastructure damage, it was the spreading out of those winds, the rapid cooling of tops at landfall exacerbated the rainfall, what was a tight core with cane winds confined to a 30 mile radius spread those out 100's of miles. There is nothing good save for the areas that would have gotten wind speeds 25 mph higher Maximum sustained winds weakened. Only fact I stated. I believe that is what the Saffir/Simpson Scale is based on. Obviously there are other factors at play when speaking of structural changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, medville said: BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 70.0W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Hi, we have a Jose thread. This thread is for Maria. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Arecibo reports now updated to (edit) 1418z, peak gust 98 knots at 1354z (wind still NE to 1418z and still gusting to 96 knots). Degraded eye must be very close now, next hour of reports will probably capture it if the sensors survive the surge. Interesting to note that sustained winds increase from 72 knots at 10m to 78 knots at 20m. If that rate of increase was sustained to 100m (top of high rise buildings in San Juan) it would imply 126 knots at that level -- probably not quite that linear but over 100 knots likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The SailFlow private sensor on Culebrita survived the passage recording gusts of ~140mph... the sensor is on the light house which is the highest point on the (tiny) island - i've attached a photo i took from the light house a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medville Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 The last radar image from the San Juan WSR-88D was received at 0950 UTC when Maria's eye was located only about 5 n mi off the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico. Subsequent 1-minute imagery from the GOES-16 satellite, as well as surface observations, indicate that the eye made landfall a little south of Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico, around 1015 UTC. Now that the center is moving over the mountainous terrain of the island, the eye has become cloud filled, and the infrared satellite presentation has degraded. Without radar velocity data, the initial intensity is incredibly uncertain, but my best guess is 120 kt based on a typical inland decay rate. Maria's center is expected to move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico soon, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to intercept the center early this afternoon and provide a better estimate of how much Maria has weakened. The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/10 kt. This northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the north by days 4 and 5, while Maria moves between a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered this cycle, and there were no significant changes made to the NHC forecast track. Once Maria moves off the coast of Puerto Rico, it will take some time for the structure to reorganize over the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. However, the shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for the next 24-36 hours, and Maria has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit over that time period. After 36 hours, a gradual increase in shear is likely to lead to a commensurate gradual decrease in the hurricane's intensity through the end of the forecast period. Since the SHIPS model, in particular, responds to the favorable conditions for intensification, the NHC intensity forecast lies just above the intensity consensus through much of the forecast period. Since we don't have radar imagery from San Juan, and the eye has become cloud filled in satellite imagery, the hourly position updates are being discontinued. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's core is moving over Puerto Rico, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts continuing over the island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Virgin Islands, but conditions should gradually improve there later today. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. 3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.4N 66.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 12H 21/0000Z 19.2N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.2N 70.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.4N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 28.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 31.5N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Looks like Maria took a gulp of dry air just to the South of the eye thanks to the down sloping off the higher terrain to the South of San Juan. You can see that dry air where the crescent shade of light green appears near the center of the island on the WV loop. The actual center of Maria is probably located just to the North of there and should be completely back over water within the next 2-3 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Recon is en route, they must be expecting the center to be back over water very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Wow at those river gauges, one was nearly 20 feet above the record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Rain total estimates thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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