jpeters3 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: Barring a change in direction it looks to make a close run at San Juan. Ugh! Given the unfavorable wobble over Dominica, maybe we'll get a favorable wobble offshore (or westward) upon landfall away from San Juan and population. A guy can hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Ugh! Given the unfavorable wobble over Dominica, maybe we'll get a favorable wobble offshore (or westward) upon landfall away from San Juan and population. A guy can hope... well if it goes offshore from san juan st john and st thomas would be blasted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: well if it goes offshore from san juan st john and st thomas would be blasted... Ugh. You're right. That's probably an unfavorable scenario. Can't really win at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 OEW starting to come ashore on St. Croix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 that webcam in stcroix still working somehow but power seems to be off around it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 75kts TISX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: OEW starting to come ashore on St. Croix Based on 140mph 14kft winds per radar, we may well be seeing 125-130mph surface winds in the outer eyewall - 130mph is minimal cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 That area of 115+ kt velocities aloft on the radar is huge now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 80kts and tisx is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Obviously Puerto Rico and Turks & Caicos are in trouble but the sharp turn N pretty much saves Hispaniola and the Bahamas so there is that bright side. Edit: of course a wobble W due to interaction w/ PR which seems unlikely based on model clusters could still create major problems for DR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Even TIST 63kts. Well removed from center too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 11 pm, Hurricane Maria was centered at 17.3°N 64.7°W. Maria was continuing to bear down on Puerto Rico where it should make landfall tomorrow morning either as a Category 4 or perhaps Category 5 hurricane. The EPS continued to argue strongly against strongly against Maria’s making landfall on the Continental United States. However, both the 18z GFS and 18z GEFS increased prospects of such landfall. In part, this guidance weakened Jose faster than the ECMWF did and it showed Jose having less interaction with Maria than the ECMWF did. The probability associated with historical climatology (1851-present) associated with hurricanes that developed in the 8/15-10/15 period and that passed within 100 nautical miles of Maria’s 11 pm position was slightly lower than was the case at 11 am. That probability was approximately 45%. However, an adjusted perspective based on the synoptic pattern yielded a landfall probability of 31%. The adjustments were based on (1) excluding tropical cyclones that tracked into the Gulf of Mexico and toward either Central America or Mexico or Texas to Louisiana and (2) excluding landfalls for 9 of 12 Florida landfall cases from the data set. The excluded cases were hurricanes that were west of 70°W upon reaching 20°N latitude. At present, Maria is likely to be somewhere between 68.5°W and 69.5°W at 20°N latitude. That is very close to the forecast position shown on the 12z ECMWF. The ECMWF has been averaging an error of about 30 miles over 48 hours so far with Maria. Therefore, I am reasonably confident that Maria will be east of 70°W when it reaches 20°N latitude. The last four NHC forecasts for Maria’s longitude at 20°N latitude were: 5 am forecast: 69.0°W 11 am forecast: 68.8°W 5 pm forecast: 69.2°W 11 pm forecast: 68.7°W Overall, as had been the case this morning, I believe the probability of Maria’s making landfall on the mainland U.S. is about 30%. The East Coast would be overwhelmingly favored for any such landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 92mph just broke the ASOS. They should use better equipment on these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Could you put a pitot tube on a vane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mfgmfg said: Could you put a pitot tube on a vane? It's not really the speed that's the problem, it's power to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's not really the speed that's the problem, it's power to the system. I assume many of them go out due to power but I see many cases where the rest of it keeps working the entire event but the anemometer fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Good 25 miles difference between NHC and the worst case scenario direct hit for San Juan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I assume many of them go out due to power but I see many cases where the rest of it keeps working the entire event but the anemometer fails I don't know if they are using the same IFWS that we do up here, but if that's the case it is a pretty sensitive instrument. Rogue gusts and drop outs are not uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Latest Maria's IKE @11 pm EDT calculated by myself is 46 (up from 38 @5 pm EDT). SDP (Surge Destructive Potential Index), up to 3.7 from 3.4 (out of a max of 6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 907.5mb extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Also 120mph SFMR winds in the outer eyewall, NE quadrant. That makes outer eyewall Cat 3 and inner eyewall Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 (Dumb tech nerd question: wouldn't it be desirable to make these instruments extremely rugged, like aircraft black boxes?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, thess said: (Dumb tech nerd question: wouldn't it be desirable to make these instruments extremely rugged, like aircraft black boxes?) I think they just don't see the value in it. Much like the 25000ft sensors for the ASOS never really came to pass. They didn't see any reason since these are mostly for aviation purposes and you won't have any operation in these conditions ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I was just in Puerto Rico this January. This is going to be a tough one for them. Mudslides are going to be a huge problem, too, I think. They've got some pretty intense mountains there. The winds on Cerro de Punta are going to be insane. I doubt the radio towers on top of the peak are going to be standing after it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Awesome to watch her restructure herself throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Maybe a bit of a west wobble right as the eye gets close to St Croix might keep the island out of the inner eyewall....reports of a 114mph gust there already in the outer eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: Awesome to watch her restructure herself throughout the day I both like and dislike the Morphed Microwave Imagery. It's neat to see the progression of the storm, but it can also be misleading in that everyone really needs to pay attention to the timestamps on the last actual microwave overpasses. For those that aren't familiar with the CIMSS product, it takes microwave overpasses from the various satellites (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI) and "fills in" the blank frames between the actual data. Because it is filling in the data (aka, morphing new frames between the known frames), it often gives misleading details on the evolution of the storm. The actual times of the passes vary (these are polar orbiting satellites), anywhere from a couple hours apart to sometimes as long as 10+ hours. This is the actual latest microwave pass, which is 2.5 hours old now - clearly shows the new outer eyewall is now the dominant feature - if this was deep in the Atlantic, we'd already be saying the ERC was essentially done, but because we have both recon and radar, we know it's still got a very strong inner eyewall that hasn't yet given up the fight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, wxmx said: Latest Maria's IKE @11 pm EDT calculated by myself is 46 (up from 38 @5 pm EDT). SDP (Surge Destructive Potential Index), up to 3.7 from 3.4 (out of a max of 6) This is probably the most important info we have. We all know winds are destructive in a very small area (and of course a relative amount outwards). Thanks for providing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: I both like and dislike the Morphed Microwave Imagery. It's neat to see the progression of the storm, but it can also be misleading in that everyone really needs to pay attention to the timestamps on the last actual microwave overpasses. For those that aren't familiar with the CIMSS product, it takes microwave overpasses from the various satellites (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI) and "fills in" the blank frames between the actual data. Because it is filling in the data (aka, morphing new frames between the known frames), it often gives misleading details on the evolution of the storm. The actual times of the passes vary (these are polar orbiting satellites), anywhere from a couple hours apart to sometimes as long as 10+ hours. This is the actual latest microwave pass, which is 2.5 hours old now - clearly shows the new outer eyewall is now the dominant feature - if this was deep in the Atlantic, we'd already be saying the ERC was essentially done, but because we have both recon and radar, we know it's still got a very strong inner eyewall that hasn't yet given up the fight: This is actually really incredible information -- is there somewhere where we can learn more about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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