Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Outer eyewall has shrunk from about 28mi to about 22mi in the past hour, per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, wxmx said: It's already underway. It will take many hours to complete, if at all, taking into consideration the outer eyewall is still very large and the inner one is just beginning to show signs of being "choked" thanks. if and how much do you think maria will weaken before landfall in PR. i know its going to be bad regardless, just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Outer eyewall has shrunk from about 28mi to about 22mi in the past hour, per radar. It was 28 miles? I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said: thanks. if and how much do you think maria will weaken before landfall in PR. i know its going to be bad regardless, just wondering. 15-20 mph if it completes or nears completion. The eye having become bigger today probsbly prevents a 30 mph plus drop from occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Not 100% sure this will happen or really how it even works in the first place. But I would like to say that if this outer band keeps contracting(it is, per TJUA) but fails to generate significant subsidence and still remains connected to the IEW through little spiral bands, it could just contract in on the IEW and have the IEW absorb the band. I have never seen this happen outside of Irma, but she did this several times. Generating significant subsidence(and thus eliminating the feeder bands) is the key to burning off the inner eye. If we can't do this, the IEW probably won't weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 It's completing an ERC as we speak and not even flinching. Irma acted similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: It was 28 miles? I missed that. I measured it on RadarScope on two frames of its loop - 8:49 (28mi) and 9:40pm (22mi) EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height. Sorry - i was measuring radius, not diameter. Should have been clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height. Radius or diameter?...maybe you are both measuring the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height. Yeah I had 8 nm so I was a bit confused. Thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 What an impressive hurricane. I thought after Irma that would be the best looking hurricane that I had seen on Nexrad. I figured it would be years.. Wrong!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 recon headed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Sorry - i was measuring radius, not diameter. Should have been clear! Ha...yes, that makes sense now. And yes, I agree the OEW has contracted some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoOneAtAll (NOAA) Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Would appreciate someone looking at this display of wind speeds (set at surface but adjustable up - click "earth" for menu) in Maria: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-65.50,17.50,3000/loc=-63.817,17.579 I can't get a result that equates with Cat 5 speeds anywhere. Is this site getting faulty data or is there another explanation? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I know PR is in the cross hairs but it seems that Turks and Caicos possibly avoid a direct hit? Although it skirts Hispaniola could be some pretty bad flooding/mudslide issues there. That island won't even be a news bi-line w/ all the focus on Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NoOneAtAll (NOAA) said: Would appreciate someone looking at this display of wind speeds (set at surface but adjustable up - click "earth" for menu) in Maria: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-65.50,17.50,3000/loc=-63.817,17.579 I can't get a result that equates with Cat 5 speeds anywhere. Is this site getting faulty data or is there another explanation? Thx. Low resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Know I'm getting ahead on this, but with Jose seeming to hold together... does that all but ensure Maria hooks OTS, or is there still a "realistic" chance the ridge manages to build in and push Maria into the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 WOW. Catastrophic for the entire island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Here's the part where I politely ask people to verify their aftermath photo/video sources and not just trust anything off social media, and then my post gets deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, SeanBarg said: That twitter handle was posting every fake damage shot possible earlier.. I would take that video footage with a grain of salt as I don't know that the choppers had time to reach the island before nightfall given the conditions. Also actually thought the damage would look much worse than what is being shown here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 St Croix airport - 49 mph gusting to 85mph. That's the first observation over hurricane force gusts. METAR: TISX 200200Z 03044G74KT 1/2SM +RA FG VV014 25/25 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 02064/0157 PRESFR P0014 T02500250 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanBarg Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Recon should have the next center fix in an hour and it appears they they departed on time. Refer to the below chart for this and the next mission: FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 74 A. 20/03Z,06Z,09Z A. 20/1130Z,1730Z B. AFXXX 0715A MARIA B. AFXXX 0815A MARIA C. 20/0115Z C. 20/0945Z D. 17.0N 64.4W D. 17.6N 65.5W E. 20/0230Z TO 20/0900Z E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Don't expect to see any helicopter footage out of Dominica until tomorrow at the earliest. Turbulance and flight conditions would have remained awful there throughout the day. CDEMA may have done aerial recon this evening but still nothing released: Due to the conditions, the CDEMA head said the agency would have to identify appropriate landing sites for helicopters since fixed-wing aircraft could not be used. CDEMA has activated its Regional Response Mechanism and aerial reconnaissance was taking place at the time of the Press conference. The Regional Security System, including a CDEMA damage assessor, flew over Dominica to get a better sense of what was happening on the ground and take aerial photos. There was also a planned flight by a partner military institution to take a rapid assessment team and possibly one search and rescue person and a communications kit to the ravaged country. http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/100659/cdema-gears-complex-dominica-mission Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Also actually thought the damage would look much worse than what is being shown here too. I had checked and the video was posted in the CBC Barbados Facebook page as well https://www.facebook.com/CBCNews.bb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Maria was just ramping up before 1st landfall. High winds maybe didn't mix down to the surface. Winds sure will with PR landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The anemometer on the north side of St. Croix got up to 64 knots, then appears to have broken or stopped transmitting. Barometer still working. Water rising On the south side of the island, the 'Lime Tree Bay' station has similar numbers, and worsening conditions https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9751401 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 station LTBV3, a national buoy system station (possibly at the beach) on St. Croix. monitor the gusts and barometric pressure plot. Pressure plot should get a lot more extreme! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LTBV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: station LTBV3, a national buoy system station (possibly at the beach) on St. Croix. monitor the gusts and barometric pressure plot. Pressure plot should get a lot more extreme! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LTBV3 The picture of the station is on the page. It's a shack right along the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Direct hit on PR. Barring a change in direction it looks to make a close run at San Juan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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