dan11295 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 One thing that will be interesting to see is what impact the land interaction with PR will have with Maria. It will weaken, obviously, but it could skirt along the northern part of the island when it's trying to come off and shift things west later on down the road. Just something I'll keep an eye on tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Is there a good link/resource you like to use to read up on TIKE versus IKE? Thank you for the information. TIKE is just the sum of IKE during the TC lifespan. Similar to ACE http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00349.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Damn thing looks like a hand coming for them, what a monster of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Its just insane how deep convection is around the center GRLevel3 example of that right around the eye - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall. The outer band does look to be intensifying. Unfortunately, even if St. Croix doesn't get into the northeast eyewall, that outer band may have long duration winds of hurricane force as it is moving over them. They are still going to get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Seeing secondary wind max on radar @ 14k feet, and also a secondary ring of cold cloud tops starting to separate on IR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The outer band does look to be intensifying. Unfortunately, even if St. Croix doesn't get into the northeast eyewall, that outer band may have long duration winds of hurricane force as it is moving over them. They are still going to get rocked. Yeah, it is already pretty impressive on that St Croix livestream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, dan11295 said: You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall. Outer ring should pass over St. Croix. Unlucky timing for them for it to be strong at this point. Looks like two healthy eyewall features to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Seeing secondary wind max on radar @ 14k feet, and also a secondary ring of cold cloud tops starting to separate on IR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, it is already pretty impressive on that St Croix livestream. Keep in mind that the St. Croix livestream is in Christiansted, which is on the north side of the island and more centrally located. The worst of the storm will likely be the west end of the island, near Fredericksted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just to compare a few numbers, flight level from the last recon pass was about 9000 feet when it passed through the secondary wind max, which was read as about 103mph (90kts) flight level winds. Higher altitude, winds will be less. We are now seeing widespread winds at 14000 feet at 120 to 130mph, with an occasional 130mph+ rate (radar estimated). This is in about an hour and a half. That's a big jump in the 2ndary wind max velocity. (note: the 145mph readings on radar appear to be radar noise - they are all over, not just in the wind maxima regions) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Hotair said: HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm? HMON pressures are not reliable. HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 St. Croix airport, peak wind 60 kt (69 mph) from NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hotair said: HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm? Yes, but the HMON isn't ocean coupled in the Atlantic basin so we generally disregard the actual intensity output from it. It may still be useful in the sense that it "sees" an otherwise favorable environment. But, be careful about taking it too literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: HMON pressures are not reliable. HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 HMON pressures are not reliable. HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening. Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin like in the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Any possibility Maria goes below 900 mb pressure in the next day or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: HMON pressures are not reliable. HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening. 857mb lol what a joke. anyway does the ERC seem to be beginning soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: HMON pressures are not reliable. HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening. Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin unlike the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria. any reason why it wasn't coupled to the Atlantic? We have so many models- is there a version of that model that is coupled to the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 are we convinced it's going to landfall in PR? looking at the radar/satellite it looks like there's still a chance it could skirt to the east (barely), though i'd be concerned about another west wobble before that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, 87storms said: are we convinced it's going to landfall in PR? looking at the radar/satellite it looks like there's still a chance it could skirt to the east (barely), though i'd be concerned about another west wobble before that could happen. Direct hit on PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said: 857mb lol what a joke. anyway does the ERC seem to be beginning soon? It's already underway. It will take many hours to complete, if at all, taking into consideration the outer eyewall is still very large and the inner one is just beginning to show signs of being "choked" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said: 857mb lol what a joke. anyway does the ERC seem to be beginning soon? GFS is 50 mb too high and Euro is 70 mb too high. So HMON is definitely closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Direct hit on PR. I could see it clipping the northeast corner if it were to wobble NNW a bit longer which it seems to be doing now. But it's probably going to resume more WNW motion at some point tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Any info out of Dominica? I saw the social media post by the PM about his roof but nothing since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Eyewall is now under 100 miles from PR eastern shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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