HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 909mb/175 mph at 8 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 64.2W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Maria is getting close to beating Dean/Mitch with that extrap pressure. Next mission wont be in the storm for another two hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, Coopdog said: Will it be 175mph at 8pm? The 7 pm interim update had it at that - The 8 pm kept it the same - 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192357 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 64.2W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, Paragon said: IKE is the best way to judge how high the storm surge will be, Jorge? I wish we could calculate the IKE of some historic storms that supposedly had amazingly high surges, like the 1821 Hurricane (29 foot surge in NJ). Katrina and Sandy also must be high on the list. Does it also work with Pacific typhoons and super typhoons like Haiyan? How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 vortex @911 dropsone had 12kts (From the N at 14mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Oranjestad, Sint Eustatius, Netherlands Antilles is getting 28 kt gusting to 52 kt (greater than 50 kt is a storm-force or a severe thunderstorm). St. Croix Airport has weaker winds now, but will soon be going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, WxReese said: 2005 had 4 Category 5s: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma. Thanks, I don't even remember Emily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2 I was trying to find the resource that calculates IKE and had no luck, except for one that wanted me to plug in my own numbers. Do you know where to find the resource that people were posting for Irma that calculated her IKE? I'd love to see that for Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: vortex @911 dropsone had 12kts (From the N at 14mph) Missed the direct eye, probably closer to 910. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, wxmx said: Thanks for this and the SDP index (I assume it means Surge Destructive Power.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Well, I was wrong- Period. I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it. I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future. Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful. Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small. Never stop learning in this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2 yes I was thinking about the other factors and wondered how they would be included. Since surge is added to what the regular tide brings, I assume that phase of the moon isn't a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Maria's eyewall is coming into range of super resolution. This will be one of the most impressive eyewalls you will have seen on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I was wrong- Period. I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it. I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future. Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful. Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small. Never stop learning in this hobby. To your credit Maria has not behaved as one would expect. I didn't think it would get its act back together so quickly this morning after moving back off-shore. Both Irma and Maria have demonstrated wacky/typhoon-like behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I was wrong- Period. I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it. I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future. Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful. Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small. Never stop learning in this hobby. Anyone able to post were Irma was in relation to were Maria is now? Just curious as I imagine Irma was no more than 100-150 miles more northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Coopdog said: Anyone able to post were Irma was in relation to were Maria is now? Just curious as I imagine Irma was no more than 100-150 miles more northeast? At least that much...Irma essentially scraped PR to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 No much wiggle room for St. Croix. I'm getting about 306 degree movement from radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 No much wiggle room for St. Croix. I'm getting about 306 degree movement from radar.That's a b line for San Juan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least that much...Irma essentially scrapped PR. And 70,000 people are still without power from Irma. I think it's game over for their power grid for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Latest Sat. reminds me of peak Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Does anyone know if the Arecibo observatory has ever been tested against Cat 5 winds? Is it somehow built to widthstand the lashing? Been there three times so am familiar with the installation, but somehow still think the radio telescope would be utterly destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The after images will be horrifying Metro pop over 2M+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF? Yes, landfall should be around 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Can someone share the link to the recon that supports the 175 mph surface? Not that i don't believe it, just want to be able to find it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least that much...Irma essentially scraped PR to the N. it was more than s scrape the eyewall was 50 miles at least to the north of the island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, bobbutts said: No much wiggle room for St. Croix. I'm getting about 306 degree movement from radar. Frederiksted on the west end of the island may be ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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