jojo762 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Hurricane force FL wind field has expanded dramatically in the past few hours in the SW quadrant it appears, per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just a few rum huts damaged. Yeah, I don't think Irma and Maria are just delaying happy hour for a couple of days. There is devastation in some pretty impoverished areas. A poorly timed jog with Maria could bring the eye dangerous close to relief efforts in the Virgin Islands. STT already gusting to 43 kts in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Jose over cool waters in the 18Z GFS allowing Maria to nudge more West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica Contrarian? No way....Dominica was decimated, and PR is going to be severely impacted. My only question is whether or not its going to be catastrophic or extreme in PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Everything anyone is discussing is anecdotal.The local code establishes 145 mph as a baseline. The problem is going to be 'Creole' construction as defined in this article: https://www.elnuevodia.com/english/english/nota/irmashowstheproblemofinformalconstruction-2358410/ Before the 2011 codes the baseline was 125. The problem is going to be *how much 'Creole'* construction took place. Puerto Rico is impoverished in comparison to the U.S. but on a lot of their buildings they do have decent standards. I would like less anecdotal evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, andyhb said: Considering we basically know nothing of what's happened in Dominica (and what we do know sounds pretty bad), I'd temper your gusto a bit. Unfortunately we see this phenomenon quite often just prior to big natural disasters. It's almost as if the human mind tries to downplay something so it won't have to deal with the enormity of it (especially if it's someone who is not directly affected.) I saw this during the early phases of the Katrina disaster, Sandy, Harvey and Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Jose over cool waters in the 18Z GFS allowing Maria to nudge more West. The ridging over the western Atlantic and eastern CONUS, ex Jose is just all-around stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: The ridging over the western Atlantic and eastern CONUS, ex Jose is just all-around stronger this run. Yup, run looks more Climo and better than yesterdays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 175 mph SFMR wind, unflagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, I'm not sure how a CAT V into a rather poor area isn't a recipe for a disaster. I would also argue many other islands other than Barbuda were decimated. I'd say St Martin and St Thomas were also decimated. Dominica also isn't sparsely populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Sub 910mb on the latest extrap pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I've now lost all hope. Haters win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Say a pray for those folks in P.R they are at the mercy of this cyclone end of story its sad situation and i can feel their pain . see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 As of 18Z Maria had an IKE of 60 TJ. I'd imagine the 0Z update is going to be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Some news coming out of Dominica slowly from 'ham radio' operators, sporadically, but the essence is bad, very bad http://wicnews.com/caribbean/dominica-devastation-emerges-fatalities-90-buildings-destroyed-44575828/ 90 percent of housing 'destroyed', known fatalities, landslides, flooding It seems the damage is comparable to that of Barbuda, with the exception that Dominica is far more mountainous and therefore landslides are likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just so no one is under any delusions here are some news stories of the destruction Maria has already wrought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 As of 18Z Maria had an IKE of 60 TJ. I'd imagine the 0Z update is going to be higher. Where are you getting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Someone said ~910mb is the max the area can sustain in terms of strength? how accurate is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: Someone said ~910mb is the max the area can sustain in terms of strength? how accurate is that? It's an estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Mountain_Patch said: It's an estimate. who's estimate? is there a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Dropsonde had 910 with 14 kt wind so we likely are at 909 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: who's estimate? is there a link? someone on here posted it a few pages back, they actually stated "900-910 mb" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said: Some news coming out of Dominica slowly from 'ham radio' operators, sporadically, but the essence is bad, very bad http://wicnews.com/caribbean/dominica-devastation-emerges-fatalities-90-buildings-destroyed-44575828/ 90 percent of housing 'destroyed', known fatalities, landslides, flooding It seems the damage is comparable to that of Barbuda, with the exception that Dominica is far more mountainous and therefore landslides are likely I didn't think Dominica's housing would withstand CAT1 winds. It is built on the side of a mountain in a jungle with 2 way streets only wide enough for 1 car and no guardrails. Lots of houses look like huts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Amped said: I didn't think Dominica's housing would withstand CAT1 winds. It is built on the side of a mountain in a jungle with 2 way streets only wide enough for 1 car and no guardrails. Lots of houses look like huts. Live HAM Radio reports coming in from Dominica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: who's estimate? is there a link? I will try to look for the link, but there is a resource that shows the hypothetical max of a hurricane in a general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: who's estimate? is there a link? I don't know, honestly. Intensification isn't understood which is really what led me to this site to begin with. This has been my reading material as of late: https://emanuel.mit.edu/limits-hurricane-intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Question is. Is it remotely possible we get to 890s?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Where are you getting that?The RMS HWind Twitter account.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Mountain_Patch said: I don't know, honestly. Intensification isn't understood which is really what led me to this site to begin with. This has been my reading material as of late: https://emanuel.mit.edu/limits-hurricane-intensity Thanks for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: who's estimate? is there a link? Here you go. I don't believe this is an "exact science" per se, but you can read about how they come to their algorithms, etc. http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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