Hurricane Maria

[Windspeed]

The immense size and spread of the heavy banding/precipitation field NW of the core is troubling. If this structure holds through tomorrow, Puerto Rico is going to be experiencing flash flooding all over the island long before the core even gets there.

[jasons]

913mb

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 21:29Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303 
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 21:12:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°46'N 63°58'W (16.7667N 63.9667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 179 statute miles (288 km) to the SE (129°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,356m (7,730ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (~ 157.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 102° at 148kts (From the ESE at ~ 170.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 913mb (26.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed 
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE (21°) from the flight level center at 21:10:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 15° at 5kts (From the NNE at 6mph)

 

[gymengineer]

13 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I was looking for this before but couldn't find it, what was the strongest TC to directly make landfall on Puerto Rico?

 

The San Felipe II hurricane in 1928. Reanalysis kept the 140 kt landfall at 931 mb. It was a much larger hurricane than Maria. 

[Weatherchaser]

 

12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I was looking for this before but couldn't find it, what was the strongest TC to directly make landfall on Puerto Rico?

 

This one 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurrican

 

[hlcater]

Maria central pressure measured at 913mb. This makes Maria the deepest hurricane of the 2017 season so far, passing Irma at 914mb.

[Windspeed]

I was looking for this before but couldn't find it, what was the strongest TC to directly make landfall on Puerto Rico?

 

The Great "Okeechobee" hurricane of 1928 made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 5 with 160mph sustained winds. So far it is the only Category 5 to make landfall there in the historical record.

[Paragon]

Wow, and this one is still strengthening.  Probably approaching maximum potential since 910mb is about as strong as those waters will support.

 

[andyhb]

Note that 139 kt SFMR was from the SW eyewall, i.e. one of the weaker quadrants in a NW-moving TC.

[Ginx snewx]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Saving grace is that the eye is so tiny that the catastrophic swath will be relatively small...

This will destroy the infrastructure for the population centers if it maintains that heading

[PennyForYourThoughts]

Eye went from 5 nautical miles wide, to 10 nautical miles wide, in one pass.

[Ginx snewx]

Not gonna hype as it isn't necessary. So far these Cat 5's have hit relatively small populous areas, if this maintains intensity and heading we will be looking at a Humanitarian crisis.

[hlcater]

Just now, PennyForYourThoughts said:

Eye went from 5 nautical miles wide, to 10 nautical miles wide, in one pass.

I have a feeling the 5nm wide reading was inaccurate. Mainly given that radar didn't support that and 5nm is rrreeeaaallllyyy small. Eyes also rarely grow outside of ERCs(I think) especially while a storm is deepening.

[Coopdog]

5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow, and this one is still strengthening.  Probably approaching maximum potential since 910mb is about as strong as those waters will support.

 

We are now 16-17 hrs in from the last communication out of Dominica. Has anyone heard anything? The situation would appear to be dire. With the sun setting soon it appears less likely to hear anything the rest of the night. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Coopdog said:

We are now 16-17 hrs in from the last communication out of Dominica. Has anyone heard anything? The situation would appear to be dire. With the sun setting soon it appears less likely to hear anything the rest of the night. 

https://twitter.com/LucasToronto/status/910252426393001987

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Coopdog said:

We are now 16-17 hrs in from the last communication out of Dominica. Has anyone heard anything? The situation would appear to be dire. With the sun setting soon it appears less likely to hear anything the rest of the night. 

Last I know about was the head of the government talking about the roof of his dwelling being blown off and that this has been the case with most or all of the buildings there.

 

[Mountain_Patch]

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica

[andyhb]

5 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

Considering we basically know nothing of what's happened in Dominica (and what we do know sounds pretty bad), I'd temper your gusto a bit.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Considering we basically know nothing of what's happened in Dominica (and what we do know sounds pretty bad), I'd temper your gusto a bit.

Yeah, I'm not sure how a CAT V into a rather poor area isn't a recipe for a disaster. I would also argue many other islands other than Barbuda were decimated.

[Disc]

4 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica

Also, how can you claim it won't be "as bad" when there's not much to compare it to, other than the last Cat 5 that hit PR in 1928? The 7.1 earthquake for comparison makes no sense either. 

[Bostonseminole]

6 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica

did you actually read the link you posted?

 

“Trees down, river has flooded half the village, cars are all over, most houses have lost their roofs or are destroyed, the area between his house and the church is just flattened…in his words, ‘devastation is total,’

[Z-Cast]

6 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica

Terrible post.

 

So many assumptions made, please stop.

[jojo762]

Just now, andyhb said:

Considering we basically know nothing of what's happened in Dominica (and what we do know sounds pretty bad), I'd temper your gusto a bit.

Absolutely, it's WAY too early to make such statements... regardless of if we see "Tuscaloosa" or "Joplin" or not, the damage caused by legit cat 3 to 5 winds is completely devastating and takes years to recover from fully.

[Blue Ridge]

14 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica

lol

this dude is woke. even throwing in a shoutout to HAM operators. guess there's no damage, guys; HAM operators are still broadcasting.

 

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

Don't compare earthquake damage to a category 5 hurricane damage. This is a pretty small storm, but it will be enough to bring  potentially massive damage to the PR. Interaction with the mountains of won't do it in time to help San Juan significantly. I don't think you can really over hype a powerful category 5 hurricane heading into a small, but heavily populated island with mountains. Not to mention the economic struggles they have been having lately.  Please don't post such irresponsible and blasphemous assumptions. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

did you actually read the link you posted?

 

“Trees down, river has flooded half the village, cars are all over, most houses have lost their roofs or are destroyed, the area between his house and the church is just flattened…in his words, ‘devastation is total,’

Just a few rum huts damaged.

[Blue Ridge]

I'm well aware the barrage of negative reaction to @Mountain_Patch's post will be deleted in short order, but IMO, it's deserved and serves to weed out the crazy.

[LakeEffectKing]

11 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

"Wind" tunnel vision...pun intended...

Surge, waves, rain, mudslides....enough said.

[Coopdog]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

https://twitter.com/LucasToronto/status/910252426393001987

Thanks! Hopefully the students can get some info out.

[BxEngine]

Back to maria. Discuss the effects of the earthquake and the delusions of numerous posts claiming "biblical" destruction somewhere else.  

[monsoonman1]

A Cat 5 hitting anywhere is going to be devastating, but probably especially for PR. My mom and sister went there last year for a vacation, so I asked my mom if Puerto Rico is ready for a big one. She just laughed. People there are pretty poor and infrastructure already sucks. It seems from what I have seen that they are taking this pretty seriously, so we just have to hope for the best.