CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways. No one said imminent.....but within 12-18 hrs is my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You need an explanation of what an ERC is? Look, we are all pretty experienced here, so I think that while baseless assertions are never good, there are some estimations that can draw on a an tacit knowledgebase Not every expressed opinion requires an equation. No, not at all. And I didn't mean to say that I didn't understand where you were coming from. It's just nice to see a train of thought, especially for the folks that just read and do not post. They see many different opinions being thrown around, and not many explain why. That's all that I was trying to say. Appreciate your thoughts, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 So current heading based on NHC, recon, etc. is 300 degrees. Short term motion on radar honestly looks south of this. It's going to take a movement of 315 from the last recon fix to miss PR to the NE and something 310+ to clip the NE part of the country. Going right through the center of San Juan is 308. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, mattb65 said: Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening. Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned. The drama yesterday was uneccessary. Likely this cyclone is still intensifying. The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction. I agree wholeheartedly. Thank you for your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one said imminent.....but within 12-18 hrs is my concern. Oh it's just floating around. Certainly doesn't seem like anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, WishingForWarmWeather said: No, not at all. And I didn't mean to say that I didn't understand where you were coming from. It's just nice to see a train of thought, especially for the folks that just read and do not post. They see many different opinions being thrown around, and not many explain why. That's all that I was trying to say. Appreciate your thoughts, thanks. Just alot of info being cast about on here.Sorry...will try to be clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh it's just floating around. Certainly doesn't seem like anytime soon. Could very well hit at cat 5....we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, mattb65 said: Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening. Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned. The drama yesterday was uneccessary. Likely this cyclone is still intensifying. The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction. Agree. I for one appreciate the Raw T updates (they save me from having to go look them up myself!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways. If you look at the recon passes there is a clear secondary wind max that is consistently present but the orientation of that outer band looks more like a spiral feeding in to the dominant inner eyewall at this time. This can all change quickly and i hope it does evolve into an ERC but i agree with you that there isn't clear evidence that the process has clearly started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways. Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Seems way too far out for it to be an ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, mattb65 said: If you look at the recon passes there is a clear secondary wind max that is consistently present but the orientation of that outer band looks more like a spiral feeding in to the dominant inner eyewall at this time. This can all change quickly and i hope it does evolve into an ERC but i agree with you that there isn't clear evidence that the process has clearly started. I agree that it hasn't started. The question is how far off is it.....PR needs to pray it isn't far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 You have to figure Maria is fairly close to max potential intensity at this point. on TC intensity maps for the area they show 900-910 mb for the waters S of PR. Also the outer ring of convection is starting to show up well on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 It looks to me like a secondary eyewall is there. It will take some time to constrict the inner eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 did not both harvey and irma have some erc where they did not weaken during the process i remember irma had one that was very quick.. and did not weaken the storm...banking on a erc in this short period of time..to save puerto rico is like winning the lottery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 64.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The NHC discussion pretty much corroborates the hivemind regarding ERC prospects. That ring is so large that it'll take quite a while for it to contract enough to hinder the inner core. At this point, I think it's still functioning effectively as a feeder band instead of an outer eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its maximum potential intensity. It now appears likely that Maria will be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, although there is a chance that the start of the eyewall replacement cycle might reduce the intensity a little bit. The hurricane should weaken as it crosses Puerto Rico, and after that proximity to Hispaniola and less favorable upper-level winds are likely to lead to continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Is Puerto Rico succeptible to mudslides? Pretty mountainous but they get hit with pretty heavy rains on a regular basis IIRC. Wind damage will be pretty bad for towns in the higher elevations. Hurricane Georges did huge damage as a Cat 3 in 1989. I fear this will be far worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: did not both harvey and irma have some erc where they did not weaken during the process i remember irma had one that was very quick.. and did not weaken the storm...banking on a erc in this short period of time..to save puerto rico is like winning the lottery... No one should be doing that. Preparations for a catastrophic blow should be complete. I think that an ERC, if it has time, will take a toll on Maira because its so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Saving grace is that the eye is so tiny that the catastrophic swath will be relatively small... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Is Puerto Rico succeptible to mudslides? Pretty mountainous but they get hit with pretty heavy rains on a regular basis IIRC. Wind damage will be pretty bad for towns in the higher elevations. Hurricane Georges did huge damage as a Cat 3 in 1989. I fear this will be far worse Yes: http://www.nytimes.com/1985/10/09/world/hundreds-feared-killed-by-puerto-rico-mud-slide.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoreyandFrosty Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Is there any chance Maria could eventually head into the Gulf of Mexico? Or is that very unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 -70C tops now showing up on the Eastern side of the hurricane. Also the CDO continues to become larger and more uniform. It seems that if an ERC is approaching, it will be very slow to occur. My guess is that the center will come ashore before any significant weakening occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Saving grace is that the eye is so tiny that the catastrophic swath will be relatively small... It was very small, but it's growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoreyandFrosty said: Is there any chance Maria could eventually head into the Gulf of Mexico? Or is that very unlikely? Probably little to no chance right now. The coast from NC northward there is still a risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon about to go through the eye again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 148FL/139SFMR, 912.7mb extrapolated during the last pass. Comparing to previous pass, it looks like it's down to around 914mb, which was the lowest for Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 We're up to a 7.0 on Raw T, as well as Adjusted, and even a 6.9 on CI#. It's pretty clear that this is an intensifying hurricane, still, and that there is little to nothing standing in it's way except for an extremely quick and well timed ERC. All thoughts seem to point to the fact that that outer eyewall would take many hours to constrict. I do not think there will be any relief for Puerto Rico, and they are going to have a very strong Cat 5 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I was looking for this before but couldn't find it, what was the strongest TC to directly make landfall on Puerto Rico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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