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Hurricane Maria

Jtm12180

By Jtm12180,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
Imminent landfall, probably into NJ

 

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This is what I was concerned about. ECMWF filling Jose's 500mb vort enough to bring Maria back west. Fortunately, based on this solution, it still had Maria far enough east bringing it over signficantly cooler SSTs thanks to Jose before bring it nearto the Mid-Atlantic region. Maria would be a similar storm to Jose by that point.

 

What we have to watch for with modeling evolution the next few days is if the ECMWF begins to trend towards filling Jose's resulting mid-level weakness faster. That could allow more ridging bringing Maria further west in track over much warmer and untouched Gulf Stream SSTs.

 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

As long as Jose is strong enough to keep the break in the ridge, Maria will follow that break in the ridge and go out to sea. If that break closes up, Maria has a path to the lower 48. 

But where does he create a break in the ridge? See 12z Euro. She's going to make landfall or come very close, this run.

The 12z Ukie only goes out to 144 hr, but you can forsee a similar outcome to the 12z euro out 192 hr.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

But where does he create a break in the ridge? See 12z Euro. She's going to make landfall or come very close, this run.

Looks like the weaker Jose is the more of a chance Maria has to come west.  Other thing is the speed of Maria.  The faster Maria moves the more west it can get before the trough affects it.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro says the trough kicks Maria OTS at the very last second, I don't see it. Anyway it's a day 8-9 forecast. Just good to see an exciting model run

sketched_59c166502bcee.png

could have sworn you said it was imminent that it was heading to NJ? 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mappy said:

could have sworn you said it was imminent that it was heading to NJ? 

Yeah I did say that, because that's what should have happened. The trough is way back over the Northern plains as Maria is approaching coast. Either way, it's still a solid battering for many.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Most likely both, as what Jose does is directly dependent upon where Maria ends up. It's worth talking about it here as well, in my humble opinion. Probably wrong though. 

The specialization of dividing things like up is going too far IMO, it's better having things in the same thread, especially when one impacts the other.

 

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TomAtkins

TomAtkins

Posted
Posted

The GFS has had similar solutions - either Maria follows Jose out to sea, or Jose dies, but a trough kicks Maria out to sea. Either way, with Jose pretty much assured to stick around at this point, landfall seems unlikely given the set up. You would really need a Sandy level left hook, or for Jose to weaken much faster than forecast at this point.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Jose is so weak and over such cold waters, I wonder what's keeping him on life support for so long.

Hurricanes typically don't weaken as much as people think north of the VA/NC 80 degree SST cutoff after late August.  They will usually plummet to around 85-90 mph and then can be stubborn beyond that because they are often being aided by some sort of upper level feature and or semi ET transition.   In June/July/most of August more weakening seems to occur.  This is likely due to SSTs being cooler as there is frequently a lag and less likely to see ET transitions or dynamic upper level features helping systems in summer 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
Just now, jbenedet said:

No. For an east coast LF want to see Jose (remnants?) move west, into the coast, irrespective of intensity, so the weak trough is collocated with the east coast.

So the models showing Jose's remnants going west into NJ and then dissipating over PA are the ones that would bring Maria closer to the coast.  The other thing is that Maria needs to move at a quicker pace to avoid being influenced by that front coming in from the west.  Maybe Jose's remnants moving west would also slow down the front?

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So the models showing Jose's remnants going west into NJ and then dissipating over PA are the ones that would bring Maria closer to the coast.  The other thing is that Maria needs to move at a quicker pace to avoid being influenced by that front coming in from the west.  Maybe Jose's remnants moving west would also slow down the front?

Speed relative to Maria really isn't the issue.

As modeled it's a kicker bc it's too progressive. But that can and likely will change. If that trough is deeper and/or goes negative it won't act as a kicker.

Watch that PNA ridge that's now showing up around hr 198. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Side note: Jose has been around for 2 weeks and will likely stick around for several more days.

Kinda crazy how he'll dictate what happens to the US. Crazy times, it's been a long time since we've had such a great hurricane tracking season.

 

14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Jose is so weak and over such cold waters, I wonder what's keeping him on life support for so long.

 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jose is hybrid at this point...which allows it to maintain more intensity. 

so these posts def belong in the Jose thread. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

If you've noticed, Maria seems to follow Jose, thus Maria's eventual fate is very much reliant on the eventual outcome of Jose. 

If you're looking for an East coast landfall from Maria, you want Jose to either dissipate or move far enough West that it allows the ridge to rebuild to the North. 

If Jose ends up getting kicked out, it leaves the weakness in place and Maria likely follows.

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Coopdog

Coopdog

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think PR will be aided by an ERC...relatively speaking, of course...my guess is 130mph LF intensity on PR.

Not a chance it gets down to 130 by LF in PR. You expect a ERC to take 35mph off it? Or do you feel there is something else not being mentioned that will reduce wind speed?

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adiabatic13

adiabatic13

Posted
Posted

I realize this is a hobbyist site, but at critical emergency management planning times such as we're in this afternoon with regard to Maria, it might be helpful to have a pro forecast thread. There are a lot of guesses being posted here with authority that new eyes in the VI and PR might not understand are derived solely from "weenie" hopes and dreams. I even saw someone state that Maria would be landfalling as 130 mph storm; while that's not outside the realm of possibility there's no meteorological evidence for that forecast at this time. 

Incidentally, ERC seems a hip term around here, so understand that until we see a weakening trend with Maria's strong inner ring of convection an ERC is NOT imminent. 

 

Edit: I didn't mean for that to sound overly critical, but as a weather event, Maria's forecast is unique in that it's people's actions over the next several hours that will determine whether they live or die tonight. I'd hate for someone in PR to start spreading the word in his local community that the media is overly hyping Maria as he just read on AmericanWeather that the storm will weaken a lot before the morning.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
Not a chance it gets down to 130 by LF in PR. You expect a ERC to take 35mph off it? Or do you feel there is something else not being mentioned that will reduce wind speed?

 

It's just his guess. Though concentric banding is getting better organized, we have no way to know how that will evolve, even in the short term, or how quickly an ERC could progress. There is even a possibility that concentric eyewalls could develop and persist all the way into landfall with the outter eyewall not being intense enough to result in a weaker inner eyewall at landfall. All this stuff is a big unknown until it actually evolves IRL.

 

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

It's just his guess. Though concentric banding is getting better organized, we have no way to know how that will evolve, even in the short term, or how quickly an ERC could progress. There is even a possibility that concentric eyewalls could develop and persist all the way into landfall with the outter eyewall not being intense enough to result in a weaker inner eyewall at landfall. All this stuff is a big unknown until it actually evolves IRL.

 

Understandable and I get where he's coming from, and you for backing him up.  HOWEVER, me personally, I'd really love for those "guesses" to be backed up with their reasoning, data and methodology of coming to that guess. I think that is what people are commenting on in this instance. 

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