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Hurricane Maria

Jtm12180

By Jtm12180,
in Tropical Headquarters

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ncocean985

ncocean985

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This Guadeloupe radar is now giving a better image:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

and on the same site, you can access hourly obs from various locations in Guadeloupe. Unfortunately Basse-Terre was not reporting winds in the past hour, rainfalls appear to be 20-30 mm per hour. 

didn't take long to recover

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

When Gilbert bisected Jamaica in 1988, it was a 115 mph hurricane. By the time it reached the western tip of the island, you can tell on the satellite the eye was degrading. About two satellite frames after leaving the western tip of Jamaica, the eye wall was already restrengthening. 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be. 

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be. 

Yes, a small vortex/eyewall directly interacting with rugged terrain, even over a landmass as small as Dominica is disruptive. Not surprising to see the pressure rebound. With the eyewall completely back over water now, looking closed and still very organized, there will probably be a leveling off of the current pressure rise. But I would still expect a delay before any reintensification and deepening. Tough to forecast that. Will likley remain at least a Category 4 over night however. It may make another run at Cat 5 given the outstanding upper environment over the next day or two.
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Coopdog

Coopdog

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be. 

Did Maria wobble farther north over the island of Dominica than expected? Could this possibly help SAN Juan and hurt the Vurgin Islands? Obviously there are many wobbles left but I feel she is further north than expected. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be. 

Radar and sat indicate it is rebounding very quickly. Recon hit the nw wall while the E ,NE  SE was over land. Nothing now until VI PR

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
17 minutes ago, David Reimer said:
It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be. 
 

Yes, a small vortex/eyewall directly interacting with rugged terrain, even over a landmass as small as Dominica is disruptive. Not surprising to see the pressure rebound. With the eyewall completely back over water now, looking closed and still very organized, there will probably be a leveling off of the current pressure rise. But I would still expect a delay before any reintensification and deepening. Tough to forecast that. Will likley remain at least a Category 4 over night however. It may make another run at Cat 5 given the outstanding upper environment over the next day or two.

Indeed. I wonder if this land interaction may help promote an ERC - as the eye was already fairly small - or if this temporary weakening might actually delay an ERC with the current eye perhaps taking additional time to organize. It's over bathwater and based on Harvey and Irma - I've pretty much come to accept the unexpected is probable, so who knows. Small cores like Irma have been torn to shreds with land interaction, but it is 2017... Anyway, GOES 16 1 hr data shows the eye looking more circular, defined, and comparatively larger on IR (band 13) compared to an hour ago. Cloud tops surrounding the eye are warmer (-65 to -75C versus the -80 earlier) and noticeably warmer in the NW quad. If recon confirms the pressure rises have stopped I'd watch out since this thing could get itself energized again in a hurry. 

 

For those wanting an awesome site for data - check out the RealEarth site from the University of Wisconson. 1-minute data from GOES 16 for Maria is available under the mesoscale sector #2 - band #13 (enhanced color) - http://re.ssec.wisc.edu/. You'll want to use band #2 once we get back to daylight conditions. 

 

EDIT: IR showing +12C temperature in the eye compared to about +1C an hour ago. Let's see if recon will make another pass through, but I would at least expect to see no additional pressure rises, and wouldn't be shocked to see it a tad lower. Let's watch it over the next hour or two to get a 'trend' set on it being steady-state or resuming an intensification trend. Regardless I'd expect winds to have come down fairly substantially for now in response to the land interaction. If pressure starts falling those winds will probably ramp back up in a hurry. 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Coopdog said:

Did Maria wobble farther north over the island of Dominica than expected? Could this possibly help SAN Juan and hurt the Vurgin Islands? Obviously there are many wobbles left but I feel she is further north than expected. 

At this juncture, I'd say the Dominica impact on Maria will be short-term - as in it won't matter in a couple of hours. If anything this may allow Maria to organize again overnight and into Tuesday morning. It maintained a well-defined inner core and that core is showing some signs of organization over the last 45 minutes. Maria continues to be a major hurricane and will remain that way for the next several days. Preparations on the Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico should be rushed to completion. I'd expect far more substantial impacts in PR - including San Juan - from Maria then what they experienced from Irma. Don't get bogged down on these short-term intensity fluctuations because conditions are quite favorable for Maria to be one bad sucker through the late week. 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Bases on a 941.6mb extrapolated pressure, it's in an intensifying cycle once again (vs 945.2 the previous pass)

Wouldn't it be something if it just started right back up right where it left off? Latest vortex reported a 12 NM closed circular eye. Almost makes me wonder if the island's interaction may have 'helped' Maria to avoid an ERC by causing a temporary disruption and helping the eye get a tad bigger. Just speculation and absolutely no meteorological basis to that speculation, but what a fascinating storm to watch. 

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This Guadeloupe radar is now giving a better image:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

and on the same site, you can access hourly obs from various locations in Guadeloupe. Unfortunately Basse-Terre was not reporting winds in the past hour, rainfalls appear to be 20-30 mm per hour. 

Becoming more cyclically organized but starting to bias toward the NE side. It's hard to get Cat 5 in this condition. The radar is probably off center or something 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Wouldn't it be something if it just started right back up right where it left off? Latest vortex reported a 12 NM closed circular eye. Almost makes me wonder if the island's interaction may have 'helped' Maria to avoid an ERC by causing a temporary disruption and helping the eye get a tad bigger. Just speculation and absolutely no meteorological basis to that speculation, but what a fascinating storm to watch. 

I'm pretty sure you can have an ERC delayed by 24-36 hours easily by a landfall.  Even a brief one such as a small island 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted 
Cat 4 for this advisory. 

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 61.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

IR looking an tad better over the last hour with cooler cloud tops wrapping by back around in the northern and northwestern sections of Maria. Eye looking decent as well. I doubt winds are actually remotely near 155 MPH right now, but wouldn't be shocked to to see them respond back up into high-end cat 4 later this morning if pressures can fall back into the lower 930s. An ERC would put a halt to that. Longer we can hold off an ERC probably the better for PR. Hopefully we can time this to where it's undergoing an ERC at lndfall versus coming out of one and into a strengthening phase. Either way PR is screwed by wind and prolific rains in the coming days. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
I'm pretty sure you can have an ERC delayed by 24-36 hours easily by a landfall.  Even a brief one such as a small island 

Yes sir. (It fits my theory I proposed during Irma... And with other scientific theories proposed by those much more educated than me in this field). But the physics of the HBL are easily disrupted by land. The physics which allow the convergence and eventual building of the secondary eyewall is easily messed up. As such, the ERC can be delayed, which thus can hurt the structure of the storm (to explain this post further, my theory was that ERC are a normal part of keeping a healthy and mature storm, that happen regardless of outside influences )

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted 
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 62.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

 

maria-8am-115242_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-09192017.png

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JasonOH

JasonOH

Posted
Posted

Latest center dropsonde had 933mb with 25kt winds. Pretty nice west wobble between the last 2 passes. Tropical Tidbits isn't plotting rain rate and SFMR. Not sure if it's a data problem or an aircraft problem. The southern eyewall is very weak compared to the northern side with FL winds ~35 knots slower.

 

There is no secondary wind max showing up. This leads me to believe that the weakness is due to the mountains of Dominica, not an ongoing ERC. It should work out as the day goes on.

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