SnowLover22 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Recon about to enter the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Per Levi Cowen, [7:33pm] Recon finds an estimated pressure of 926mb and surface winds of 160 mph in #Maria's northwestern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 In terms of statistics, we're starting to creep towards some records in terms of high end activity for a single season. Maria's the fourth Cat 4+ of the 2017 season, 2005 is tied with 1933 for the most with 5 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma). Also Maria may be the the 3rd Cat 4+ to make landfall this year in the Atlantic, 2005 again tied with 1933 had 3 with Dennis (Cuba), Emily and Wilma (both Yucatan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: This is historic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 There was a flagged 152 kts SFMR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Incredible deepening. Down 24 mb from the 5pm estimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Ugh. Dominica is about to be destroyed. Awful. And much more populated than Barbuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 136FL/139SFMR ... and central pressure in the 920s...that's at least a 135 kts hurricane, borderline cat 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I wold wait for the dropsonde. Had a flagged 175 mph SFMR obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I'm thinking special advisory at 8 pm cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 That was in the NW Quad. NE should be a bit stronger with direction of motion, This is a cat 5 IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just looking at the radar and given forward motion, I think the pass through the NE eyewall will top everything on this first pass. This will be a Category 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Keep in mind with those stats above that we still have all of October to go through, which typically has more storms form in the Caribbean, which has essentially been untouched despite the explosion of activity since late August (exceptionally favorable TCHP). Onset of La Nina conditions in the Pacific only suggests more potential with anomalously weak shear. Oh and with Maria now being a Cat 5 based on recon, this may be only the second Atlantic season on record to have two Cat 5s make landfall (2007 with Dean and Felix). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Keep in mind with those stats above that we still have all of October to go through, which typically has more storms form in the Caribbean, which has essentially been untouched despite the explosion of activity since late August (exceptionally favorable TCHP). Onset of La Nina conditions in the Pacific only suggests more potential with anomalously weak shear. I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 That 25mb drop in pressure is insane. I am not sure even Patricia intensified at that pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Special update: Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 745 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND MARIA AS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane Maria has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued at 800 PM AST (0000 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory for Maria. SUMMARY OF 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Those raw T numbers really nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 NHC officially upgraded to Cat 5. 160mph, 929mb. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, shaggy said: I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon. Yes I can't disagree with that either. If that was the case, we'd now have 3 Cat 5 storms (2005 had the most with 4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 That CDO is still amazing. Looks right about on par with the best of the Atlantic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Almost the exact same pressure and wind speed as Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Dropsonde splashed at 928 with 40 kt winds. So probably 924... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 That's also a very unusual portion of the Atlantic Basin to see a cat 5 hurricane. Two in under a month is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 190mph just above the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Roseau the capitol of Dominica is on the SW part of the island. Sure looks like a beautiful town. Looks like a roaring west wind with a large storm surge that will come in as the eye passes just northeast. Dominica is a tropical paradise. Forests will be basically gone tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The sonde was thrown around the eye just like in Felix. Mean winds in the lowest 150 meters was also 153 knots. The NE quad could be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Of course remember with Dominica's elevation some of those incredible winds above the surface will be realized in a few areas on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.