jburns Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said: WOW RAW T 7.3 Here's some data for you. 100% of posters who continue this crap after I warn them to stop get several days off. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, jburns said: Here's some data for you. 100% of posters who continue this crap after I warn them to stop get several days off. Stop. sorry, i thought that is what good posting looks like. people want t number info, i am giving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said: sorry, i thought that is what good posting looks like. people want t number info, i am giving it. And we have a winner. You can post again beginning at 6:06 pm Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I have no idea what is supposed to stop this thing from going full Irma at least until it runs over Puerto Rico. The structure is spectacular with a feeder band going directly into the inner eyewall, it's sitting over bathwater, no shear, strong outflow. Good night Johnboy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: I have no idea what is supposed to stop this thing from going full Irma at least until it runs over Puerto Rico. The structure is spectacular with a feeder band going directly into the inner eyewall, it's sitting over bathwater, no shear, strong outflow. Good night Johnboy. Well, an eyewall replacement cycle given the eye is quite small and will interact with complex terrain in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Some concentric bands developing. Going to take some time before they can work inwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: I have no idea what is supposed to stop this thing from going full Irma at least until it runs over Puerto Rico. The structure is spectacular with a feeder band going directly into the inner eyewall, it's sitting over bathwater, no shear, strong outflow. Good night Johnboy. That area that it is headed for right around Hispaniola is really bathwater - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Some concentric bands developing. Going to take some time before they can work inwards. Although the eye is smaller, seems like I remember Irma having a similar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, RichardJacks said: Although the eye is smaller, seems like I remember Irma having a similar look. Yup. Everyone thought it was going to complete the EWRC, then the eyewall(s) melded together and the storm strengthened even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marmot Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Low shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 How much disruption to either the structure or trajectory can we expect assuming the core passes over Dominica with it's rugged topology? There are mountains up to 4700' there. I wonder if there will be a jog as it gets closer. I assume a weakly steered storm is more likely to have it's path affected by the local geography than one under strong steering? Also with a more compact core it may be more response to those effects vs. a larger storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 22 minutes ago, Marmot said: Low shear Got to hand it to both the GFS and ECMWF upper modeling. For four days straight, 300 to 200 mb maps all showed spectacular upper support evolving over the Lesser Antilles. It had me concerned as early as Wednesday. I just wasn't sure if the cyclone would develop and be positioned where it is now. All that is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 So if Maria hits Puerto Rico as a Cat 4 would that count as 3 Category 4 hits on the United States in one year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I'd be surprised shocked if recon did not find winds around 160 mph with pressures in the 940's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Got to hand it to both the GFS and ECMWF upper modeling. For four days straight, 300 to 200 mb maps all showed spectacular upper support evolving over the Lesser Antilles. It had me concerned as early as Wednesday. I just wasn't sure if the cyclone would develop and be positioned where it is now. All that is history. Unprecedented hurricane activity for under a month and an entire hurricane season for that region around the Hebert Box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I'll go for 150kt min at reconn, they don't look much better than this and it's a tight core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said: I'll go for 150kt min at reconn, they don't look much better than this and it's a tight core For the sake of comparison, Patricia had a raw T of 8.3 after its bout of rapid intensification, with 190 kt (current storm is up to 7.3). Your estimate could actually be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Recon entering her, here we go folks. Should know min pressure in 20 or 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Recon is currently entering the outer circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 If Wilma dropped 50mb in 6 hr this easily did 30mb. Most likely a cat 5 sub 920. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I am guessing it is at least sub 930mb at this point and around 140-145kts. I wouldn't be shocked if they found stronger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I'm going to guess it's still a Cat 4 and that the wind speed is lagging a little behind what I assume is a very rapid pressure drop. Details don't matter much when the core looks like that. Wobblier storm than Irma wouldn't you guys say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Looks like TDPD and TDCF stopped reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Concentric banding developing. Recon will do a NW to SE pass first and they have time for a SW to NE as well. We should get the Full Monty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Latest interim positional update - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like TDPD and TDCF stopped reporting. Some hours those obs have come in a good 30 minutes after the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Some hours those obs have come in a good 30 minutes after the hour Ahh you're right. TDCF 40kts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelathos Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Only the second Cat4+ in recent history to strike Dominica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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