Coopdog Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:14 AM, Chinook said: Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location Expand Thanks, thought it was relatively close. As far as the infrastructure in PR, it's about to get destroyed. They have already said expect to have no power for months and no drinking water for weeks. The islands electric provider filed for bankruptcy in July. Most commutation towers were built 20 plus yrs ago to withstand 135mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:19 AM, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Yes, landfall should be around 0z. Expand Thanks. Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:20 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point. Expand meant 12z. fixed it. 0z is now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:20 AM, nycwinter said: it was more than s scrape the eyewall was 50 miles at least to the north of the island... Expand Fair enough. I guess I was speaking in relative terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:21 AM, LovintheWhiteFluff said: meant 12z. fixed it. 0z is now. lol Expand Figured- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:21 AM, Windspeed said: On 9/20/2017 at 12:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF? Expand It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter. Expand Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:23 AM, Coopdog said: Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night?Unless you count Naples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:20 AM, MikeB_01 said: Can someone share the link to the recon that supports the 175 mph surface? Not that i don't believe it, just want to be able to find it. Thanks Expand Dropsonde a couple pages back is probably the most compelling evidence. Like 5 people posted it. Also were 152kt and 151kt unflagged SFMR on the 910mb pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:20 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point. Expand PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:23 AM, Coopdog said: Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night? Expand Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Still in beast mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:25 AM, WishingForWarmWeather said: PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?About 3300 where it will potentially be traversing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:25 AM, WishingForWarmWeather said: PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba? Expand The hindrance would only be helpful to those places impacted after Puerto Rico. Cuba still got 160 mph winds from Irma. Also, higher elevations will likely see higher winds (and rainfall.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:26 AM, Chinook said: Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM Expand Thanks, but all the catastrophic LF were at night? Rockport, St Maarten, Tortola, Barbuda, and Dominica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:25 AM, WishingForWarmWeather said: PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba? Expand The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 My god, that eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:32 AM, thewxmann said: The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile. Expand It will disrupt it, but the point is, the disruption will only help those places in the path of Maria after PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just insane. This is a temp you'd usually see in much larger eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:05 AM, WishingForWarmWeather said: I was trying to find the resource that calculates IKE and had no luck, except for one that wanted me to plug in my own numbers. Do you know where to find the resource that people were posting for Irma that calculated her IKE? I'd love to see that for Maria. Expand No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:32 AM, thewxmann said: The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.There are no 4500 ft peaks that will help San Juan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:40 AM, wxmx said: No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory Expand Thank you for that info. I was a bit confused on how to use the resource but that is extremely helpful. That seems so low for IKE. Is it because it's such a small eye and a relatively low time of being a cat5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just wanted to show this hi-res GOES-16 image of hurricane Maria from earlier (14:44z) - image processed at CIRA, Fort Collins, CO. Retweeted by Dan Lindsey, who probably set up the system to make the looping image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:44 AM, WishingForWarmWeather said: Thank you for that info. I was a bit confused on how to use the resource but that is extremely helpful. That seems so low for IKE. Is it because it's such a small eye and a relatively low time of being a cat5? Expand Time is not a variable taken into account by IKE. It's a compact storm, that's why it's "low". Andrew's IKE was around 20 at peak and Charley's around 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Its just insane how deep convection is around the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The problem with mountainous terrain is that there can be severe flash flooding and mudslides where they drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:46 AM, WishingForWarmWeather said: Yeah, wishful thinking at this point. Just trying to grasp at straws. I just feel so frantic watching this -- it always brings back such horrible memories of moving to New Orleans, Aug 1 2005. Was just hoping that maybe it would help to bring some dry air into it's core from the elevation, and saw there was mountains where it's meant to landfall, but I guess it's too little too late at this point, huh. There are, they just aren't 4500 feet. More like 3200 at their peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:47 AM, wxmx said: Time is not a variable taken into account by IKE. It's a compact storm, that's why it's "low". Andrew's IKE was around 20 at peak and Charley's around 10.Yup. TIKE is a related measurement that takes into account the total track. Sandy crushes all in TIKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On 9/20/2017 at 12:49 AM, bobbutts said: The problem with mountainous terrain is that there can be severe flash flooding and mudslides in their where they drain. Expand The outer bands will already be causing tremendous amounts of flash flooding before the center even gets to the islands. Massive life-threatening mud slide threat here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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