JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:25 PM, wxmx said: You can calculate it yourself:http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/ikeCalculator/IkeCalculator.php You can fill in the data with the latest Forecast Advisory:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/192042.shtml? The only data missing is the Rmax, which is the radius of maximum winds. It's not that important for results, but I calculated about 6-7 nm. Not sure where the 60TJ came from, I think the standard is to use the IKE TS, and I only get an IKE of around 38, which is double of Andrew's, for example. Hurricanes with IKE around 60 are like Camille or Ike.Can't really do a "hurricanes with ike around x are so and so." It takes into account a cyclone's size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:28 PM, JC-CT said: On 9/19/2017 at 11:25 PM, wxmx said: You can calculate it yourself:http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/ikeCalculator/IkeCalculator.php You can fill in the data with the latest Forecast Advisory:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/192042.shtml? The only data missing is the Rmax, which is the radius of maximum winds. It's not that important for results, but I calculated about 6-7 nm. Not sure where the 60TJ came from, I think the standard is to use the IKE TS, and I only get an IKE of around 38, which is double of Andrew's, for example. Hurricanes with IKE around 60 are like Camille or Ike. Expand Can't really do a "hurricanes with ike around x are so and so." It takes into account a cyclone's size. Expand Did you follow the links? You have to input data related to size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:29 PM, wxmx said: Did you follow the links? You have to input data related to sizeNo I did not. Just responding to the last sentence, to not create confusion that 60 IKE is like the max a hurricane can get. I'm sure you know that's not even close to the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:30 PM, JC-CT said: On 9/19/2017 at 11:29 PM, wxmx said: Did you follow the links? You have to input data related to size Expand No I did not. Just responding to the last sentence, to not create confusion that 60 IKE is like the max a hurricane can get. I'm sure you know that's not even close to the max. Expand Not sure what you are talking about. I'm comparing IKE when the mentioned historic storms were at their max IKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Barring a jog to the north, it would appear that St. Croix will miss the eyewall. They will still get the RFQ but will probably avoid any extreme wind damage. Not out of the woods though for them obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:31 PM, wxmx said: Not sure what you are talking about. I'm comparing IKE when the mentioned historic storms were at their max IKE.I guess my point is that storms with a lot lower SS rating have had a similar IKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 looks like one more pass by recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:31 PM, wxmx said: Not sure what you are talking about. I'm comparing IKE when the mentioned historic storms were at their max IKE. Expand IKE is the best way to judge how high the storm surge will be, Jorge? I wish we could calculate the IKE of some historic storms that supposedly had amazingly high surges, like the 1821 Hurricane (29 foot surge in NJ). Katrina and Sandy also must be high on the list. Does it also work with Pacific typhoons and super typhoons like Haiyan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Would this count as a US landfalling Cat 5 since PR is a US territory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Not sure if this webcam from St. Croix has been posted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Based on last few pressure readings Maria is being called one of the top ten strongest storms in the Atlantic in recorded history. So sub 910 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:37 PM, Paragon said: IKE is the best way to judge how high the storm surge will be, Jorge? I wish we could calculate the IKE of some historic storms that supposedly had amazingly high surges, like the 1821 Hurricane (29 foot surge in NJ). Katrina and Sandy also must be high on the list. Does it also work with Pacific typhoons and super typhoons like Haiyan?Sandy is #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:36 PM, JC-CT said: On 9/19/2017 at 11:31 PM, wxmx said: Not sure what you are talking about. I'm comparing IKE when the mentioned historic storms were at their max IKE. Expand I guess my point is that storms with a lot lower SS rating have had a similar IKE. Expand Gotcha. My point with that statement was to show skepticism at the 60TJ IKE figure. My own calculations point to around 40TJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:43 PM, Hotair said: Based on last few pressure readings Maria is being called one of the top ten strongest storms in the Atlantic in recorded history. So sub 910 Expand We just need one more Cat 5 this season to equal 2005 which had 3 cat 5s (and pressure-wise the strongest hurricane in Atlantic basin recorded history.) Not wishing for that....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Time to follow each wobble for st Croix. Spent several years on that island (2010-13) and there was still damage left over from Hugo '89 even in Christiansted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Cloud tops really cooling per goes-16. Looks extremely imposing even with the less filled in NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:34 PM, dan11295 said: Barring a jog to the north, it would appear that St. Croix will miss the eyewall. They will still get the RFQ but will probably avoid any extreme wind damage. Not out of the woods though for them obviously. Expand Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 7.0 7.3 7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:45 PM, Paragon said: We just need one more Cat 5 this season to equal 2005 which had 3 cat 5s (and pressure-wise the strongest hurricane in Atlantic basin recorded history.) Not wishing for that....... Expand 2005 had 4 Category 5s: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:37 PM, Paragon said: IKE is the best way to judge how high the storm will be, Jorge? I wish we could calculate the IKE of some historic storms that supposedly had amazingly high surges, like the 1821 Hurricane (29 foot surge in NJ). Katrina and Sandy also must be high on the list. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 905.7 extr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:43 PM, Hotair said: Based on last few pressure readings Maria is being called one of the top ten strongest storms in the Atlantic in recorded history. So sub 910 Expand Will it be 175mph at 8pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:52 PM, Hotair said: Expand irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 He said Irma but pretty sure he meant Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 People called Irma Harvey, now they are making up for it by calling Maria Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Looks like they were about to head into the SE quad and made a quick turn... Wish we had a NOAA Tail Doppler in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Did I see a dropsonde to 170kts? Sorry haven't been keeping up past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 In all seriousness, say what you will but there are a whole lot of American citizens currently staring down the barrel of a category 5 beast that is only hours away. It's hard to understate the severity of this. It's no Irma, and not in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:56 PM, Superstorm93 said: Looks like they were about to head into the SE quad and made a quick turn... Wish we had a NOAA Tail Doppler in there Expand This has been a long mission with 4 penetrations, this likely was a bonus VORTEX since it was sort of on the way back to Curacao, mostly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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