wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 10:46 PM, wxmx said: Expand Wow the area in the Fla straights. 900-910 mb looks about right for the waters near PR. Somewhat SE of there it's 880-890 mb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 909 MB/175 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 TWC seriously sent a reporter to San Juan, PR. Also one of their better reporters, Paul Goodloe. Dumb move by TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Is there a general consensus on about when landfall will be? I just want to make sure I am awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 10:59 PM, MattPetrulli said: TWC seriously sent a reporter to San Juan, PR. Also one of their better reporters, Paul Goodloe. Dumb move by TWC.(I assume they think they have to top the Naples landfall footage?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:07 PM, NJwx85 said: Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact. Expand Highest elevation is 1,165 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:07 PM, NJwx85 said: Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact. Expand highest peak is 1k, not sure if that will do much.. vs Dominica almost 5k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:07 PM, NJwx85 said: Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact. Expand Far less mountainous, unlikely to be disruptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 10:59 PM, MattPetrulli said: TWC seriously sent a reporter to San Juan, PR. Also one of their better reporters, Paul Goodloe. Dumb move by TWC. Expand They're the weather channel, of-course they sent someone to PR. There are several storm chasers down there as well I'm sure. They know there is a high likelihood that they'll be there for an extended period. The footage should be spectacularly horrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:07 PM, NJwx85 said: Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact. Expand Mt eagle has an elevation of 1100 feet so i imagine some potential disruption if the eye make direct overpass Edit. Never mind others have pointed out Dominica was 5x. Higher and that didn't buy much in terms of disruption. Best bet for pr outside of staying at sea would be having it tangle a bit with El Yunque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:12 PM, Hotair said: Mt eagle has an elevation of 1100 feet so i imagine some potential disruption if the eye make direct overpass Expand won't be to good for st croix if the eye went over the island.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I don't typically use this site, but is this forreal? 168 kt at surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Does this graphic show 10s average or gust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 If you're looking for information on Dominica, this radio station is broadcasting http://radio.garden/live/roseau/wice-qfm-95-5/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Doesn't that dropsonde have a gust signature? Highest wind is near the surface and then dropping off until a secondary peak couple hundred feet up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:16 PM, jpeters3 said: Does this graphic show 10s average or gust? Expand Instantaneous That was the SW eyewall. Winds might be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 live reports now from Dominica.. but little info coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:18 PM, Superstorm93 said: Instantaneous That was the SW eyewall. Winds might be stronger. Expand That's still pretty spectacular, given that it was the SW eyewall. And it hit the surface at 921 hPa, which suggests to me that the center might have gone below 909. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Probably more importantly for PR, if Maria were to track over St. Croix it would likely also pass well East of San Juan. If Maria stays on the current trajectory the inner circulation will miss St. Croix to the South/West or just brush it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:20 PM, jpeters3 said: That's still pretty spectacular, given that it was the SW eyewall. And it hit the surface at 921 hPa, which suggests to me that the center might have gone below 909. Expand I'm not really sure what the actual intensity would be after seeing that sonde. A few have malfunctioned, but definitely need more data here. Could be at least 160 knots now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 10:59 PM, MattPetrulli said: TWC seriously sent a reporter to San Juan, PR. Also one of their better reporters, Paul Goodloe. Dumb move by TWC. Expand Wonder why they didn't go to Ponce if they want to get some really wild footage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:07 PM, NJwx85 said: Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact.http://en-us.topographic-map.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:21 PM, Superstorm93 said: I'm not really sure what the actual intensity would be after seeing that sonde. A few have malfunctioned, but definitely need more data here. Could be at least 160 knots now. Expand Yeah - the average wind from ~ 900 hPa to ~ 920 hPa was greater than 160 kts. Pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 HAM radio just reported " total destruction" in Dominica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 11:24 PM, Bostonseminole said: HAM radio just reported " total destruction" in DominicaUnfortunately, if it holds course then Dominica will be an afterthought in 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 On 9/19/2017 at 10:47 PM, WishingForWarmWeather said: Does anyone have the link handy where they measure the IKE for the current hurricanes? Expand You can calculate it yourself: http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/ikeCalculator/IkeCalculator.php You can fill in the data with the latest Forecast Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/192042.shtml? The only data missing is the Rmax, which is the radius of maximum winds. It's not that important for results, but I calculated about 6-7 nm. Not sure where the 60TJ came from, I think the standard is to use the IKE TS, and I only get an IKE of around 38, which is double of Andrew's, for example. Hurricanes with IKE around 60 are like Camille or Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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