LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: There may be some heavy rain in NYC early in the day for a short time but I expect after 10-11am tomorrow it's mostly dry or showery west of Suffolk I was chuckling a bit at the TWC rainfall forecast- they had 1-2 inches for Manhattan, 2-3 inches for Queens and Nassau, 3-5 inches for Western Suffolk and 5-8 inches for Eastern Suffolk (and 8-12 inches for Nantucket.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro tends to do better with high impact stronger events like Sandy, Joaquin, and Irma. But the GFS can get lucky with weaker systems like Jose and Debby. Based on your research into our biggest systems recently being in October, this may not even be our worst threat of the season, October might bring something much more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 NAM went from 3" to less than an inch. GFS has no inches. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Based on your research into our biggest systems recently being in October, this may not even be our worst threat of the season, October might bring something much more significant. Things are a bit different this year so far compared to the 2011-2016 era when the strongest storms arrived in October. The dry air that had been suppressing September tropical activity for some reason reversed this year. We now have a record amount of hurricane activity in the Tropical Atlantic where there had been the recent year suppression. But it will still be interesting to see how things turn out the rest of the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That's why some of the most impactful storms take inland tracks (see Hazel). People seem to think that as soon as a storm hits land it falls apart, but it isn't true, they still drop a ton of rainfall and gusty winds. The most impactful track for the entire area is a track from around Wilmington, NC to Atlantic City to somewhere between Newark and JFK. I highly disagree. That's the track Floyd took and (other then rain) it was hardly the most impactful track. A track similar to Jose that is about 200 miles furth west and continues rapidly north is the ideal track. This keeps the center over water the entire time limiting land interaction weakening. The center makes landfall on western Long Island. 1893 is a good example. And of course the same situation with a last minute left turn into jersey like sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I highly disagree. That's the track Floyd took and (other then rain) it was hardly the most impactful track. A track similar to Jose that is about 200 miles furth west and continues rapidly north is the ideal track. This keeps the center over water the entire time limiting land interaction weakening. The center makes landfall on western Long Island. 1893 is a good example. And of course the same situation with a last minute left turn into jersey like sandy Floyd weakened rapidly and did not have much impact because it wasn't moving quickly enough. Also, most of its flooding rains were well to the west (NW NJ and E PA.) That's why I deliberately left it off my list I was thinking more like a stronger version of Irene. If Irene had been a much stronger storm further south it wouldn't have weakened as much at our latitude. Another one is Bertha 1996. If it had occurred later in the season and had been stronger, it would have had a much stronger impact at our latitude. Another example is the 1821 Hurricane - either a Cat 3 or a Cat 4 at S NJ landfall and still a major hurricane up into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I highly disagree. That's the track Floyd took and (other then rain) it was hardly the most impactful track. A track similar to Jose that is about 200 miles furth west and continues rapidly north is the ideal track. This keeps the center over water the entire time limiting land interaction weakening. The center makes landfall on western Long Island. 1893 is a good example. And of course the same situation with a last minute left turn into jersey like sandy I think 1976 Belle took a similar track to the one you envisioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Things are a bit different this year so far compared to the 2011-2016 era when the strongest storms arrived in October. The dry air that had been suppressing September tropical activity for some reason reversed this year. We now have a record amount of hurricane activity in the Tropical Atlantic where there had been the recent year suppression. But it will still be interesting to see how things turn out the rest of the fall. Chris, what do you think serves as a good analog to this year? As far as hurricane impacts, do you think this year is worse than either 2004 or 2005? I think we need one more major hit to make this worse than 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I'm surprised NHC left eastern Suffolk out of the tropical storm warning. I agree with NJ that the wind field is going to expand. I'm at the beach right now surfing and the wind is already up here in Long Beach straight out of the east. There are definitly going to be some pressure gradient winds out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I'm surprised NHC left eastern Suffolk out of the tropical storm warning. I agree with NJ that the wind field is going to expand. I'm at the beach right now surfing and the wind is already up here in Long Beach straight out of the east. There are definitly going to be some pressure gradient winds out there. Wow how high are the winds and when are the peak winds expected to be? I'm out in the Poconos but coming back to Long Island tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow how high are the winds and when are the peak winds expected to be? I'm out in the Poconos but coming back to Long Island tonight. Low 30s and at worst low 40s gust. Nothing out of the ordinary for the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Weather Channel just put out a bulletin: 2-3 inches of rain expected in a 12 hour time period tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: Weather Channel just put out a bulletin: 2-3 inches of rain expected in a 12 hour time period tomorrow. Where? Very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Where? Very unlikely Hoboken, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, what do you think serves as a good analog to this year? As far as hurricane impacts, do you think this year is worse than either 2004 or 2005? I think we need one more major hit to make this worse than 2005. Really no analogs to this year so far. Harvey and Irma were firsts. Harvey for the stall and record rainfall and flooding. Irma for the intensity and WSW dip in that part of the Tropical Atlantic. We also never had 3 hurricanes as strong as Irma, Jose, and Maria pass through that area in under a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Where? Very unlikely West of the south fork, below tropical storm thresholds. Maybe some gusts to 40 on the south shore of the rest of the island. I could see MTK getting into tropical storm conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Are we even going to see any rain at all from Jose? I see RGEM gives us pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Are we even going to see any rain at all from Jose? I see RGEM gives us pretty much nothing. May be a nowcasting deal on the lead rain band. That's probably going to be all. If that doesn't materialize then probably not much outside of eastern LI. 5-11am is probably the window for that rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I'm surprised NHC left eastern Suffolk out of the tropical storm warning. I agree with NJ that the wind field is going to expand. I'm at the beach right now surfing and the wind is already up here in Long Beach straight out of the east. There are definitly going to be some pressure gradient winds out there. The Euro keeps the 40 mph+ gusts along the Jersey Shore and out across Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 GFS performed very well for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 The Euro makes a wide turn, restrengthens Jose around days 4-5 before moving back towards the coast again. Here is Jose next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS performed very well for this event It's incredibly early to be making that call. Also the GFS never had Jose making the anti-cyclonic loop near the BM, that was all the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 TS watches dropped west of Fire Island Inlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: TS watches dropped west of Fire Island Inlet. NHC was nailing this forecast, the TS watches never made sense being so far outside the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: It's incredibly early to be making that call. Also the GFS never had Jose making the anti-cyclonic loop near the BM, that was all the Euro. its really not the storm is upon us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, qg_omega said: NHC was nailing this forecast, the TS watches never made sense being so far outside the cone. It was all east of Fire Island Inlet with Earl taking the BM track back in 2010 also. Another surfers special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: TS watches dropped west of Fire Island Inlet. Ahhh ha. NHC loves Fire Island Inlet as a demarcation. Im going to be pretty pissed if we come out of this without any precip in Wantagh. We haven't been able to buy a single drop of rain again for the last 2 weeks. The dry hole continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Damn most of the local news at 5 had no idea those watches were dropped either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ahhh ha. NHC loves Fire Island Inlet as a demarcation. Im going to be pretty pissed if we come out of this without any precip in Wantagh. We haven't been able to buy a single drop of rain again for the last 2 weeks. The dry hole continues These offshore track storms never work out for us for rain, it's why I like the slightly inland track (inland runner)- this track is good for surfers though. I'm not sure if I buy the loop thing for next week, the storm might be nothing more than a few renegade cumulus clouds by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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