Hurricane Jose

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I think E LI as of now may see that.  The 5 boroughs though is probably low 40s.  There may be a gust or two higher but that's also assuming we don't see this jog east somewhat 

I'm wondering what a place like southern Queens aka the Rockaways would see because their winds are usually significantly stronger than what Manhattan sees.  I remember Bob and going from Manhattan to southern Queens, it was like a different world in terms of wind.

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm wondering what a place like southern Queens aka the Rockaways would see because their winds are usually significantly stronger than what Manhattan sees.  I remember Bob and going from Manhattan to southern Queens, it was like a different world in terms of wind.

I'm always wary of going too high on the NW side of the storm due to more stability.  

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm always wary of going too high on the NW side of the storm due to more stability.  

It could be a case of Manhattan seeing 25 mph gusts and JFK/LGA seeing 50....for some odd reason central park always reports much lower winds than either of the airports.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It could be a case of Manhattan seeing 25 mph gusts and JFK/LGA seeing 50....for some odd reason central park always reports much lower winds than either of the airports.

That ASOS is too overgrown in the vicinity with trees and what not 

[Manny]

It seems like the NWS is not too convinced with the Euros solution based on forecasted track. How far west did the Euro end up?

[psv88]

tropical storm watch for Long Island

[gravitylover]

I need to take a road trip east through CT to I91 north to the NEK on Wednesday. Anybody think the weather may be rotten enough that I should put it off or will the coast be bearing the brunt of this?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My guess is 40-45 mph gusts tops.  And I still think this ticks east anyway.  This will probably end up scaring the hell out of everyone for no reason 

I think this is soooo spot on. 

 

I could see this ending with a tropical storm warnings from Fire Island inlet east. NHC likes to use that as the demarcation in events that are further east. 

The big overwhelming impact will be beach erosion. We already had wash overs today at Jones Beach. Many many high tide cycles to go with increasing wave action and tides.

i would think coastal flooding wise there may be pockets of moderate at places like Freeport and Lindenhurst. 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Coastal flooding and a ton of beach erosion will be major issues especially if Jose loops just offshore.

With strongest convection towards the west will have to see if center gets drawn towards there. If so that may help tug the system closer to the coast before turning east.

[dWave]

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It could be a case of Manhattan seeing 25 mph gusts and JFK/LGA seeing 50....for some odd reason central park always reports much lower winds than either of the airports.

Central Park is not good for wind measurements. Not just speeds, direction is often off too. Those NY Mesonet stations will come in handy. 

[CIK62]

I can find no model evidence for the center of Jose to ever get west of 72W.   As it gets near benchmark it becomes camera shy.   If it does circle back, to touch land, it will be with an elevated pressure and very debilitated from BN SSTA's.

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z NAM, 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF all now bring a significant feeder band into the NYC area late Monday into Tuesday, almost like a PRE. Several inches of rain are possible, and the convection should mix down some stronger winds.

I think the PRE is our best bet here--the actual system is too far east...reminds me of a bust a few years back-Ernesto in 2006 or something like that-we all had tropical storm warnings and none if it verified.  

[MJO812]

0z Nam has a lot of rain for the whole area

 

[doncat]

0z  model runs for rain from Jose range from 3-4 inches from the nam, about 0.75 from the Euro and around 0.10 from the gfs  and cmc...this is for nyc metro, so take your pick lol. I'll go with the low amounts.

[CIK62]

Buoy 44025  20' seas still predicted.

Sandy Hook tides still @+2'

Did you see where the EURO tries to get Jose and Maria engaged, Fujiwahara style, and keeps the action going for next 10 days on EC?

[NJwx85]

Jose has quickly lost its inner core overnight and could be declared extra tropical later today. What that means for us is that the wind field should continue to expand, and the threat of strong winds is increasing away from the center. I'm not expecting more than an inch or two of rain from this, the winds should be the main threat.

[bluewave]

This looks like a typical scraper track where Eastern Suffolk County does the best in terms of gale force winds and heavier rain potential. We generally need tropical storms to pass near or west of NYC for the whole area to cash in. That's why many times these are coastal events.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like a typical scraper track where Eastern Suffolk County does the best in terms of gale force winds and heavier rain potential. We generally need tropical storms to pass near or west of NYC for the whole area to cash in. That's why many times these are coastal events.

That's why some of the most impactful storms take inland tracks (see Hazel).  People seem to think that as soon as a storm hits land it falls apart, but it isn't true, they still drop a ton of rainfall and gusty winds.  The most impactful track for the entire area is a track from around Wilmington, NC to Atlantic City to somewhere between Newark and JFK.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like a typical scraper track where Eastern Suffolk County does the best in terms of gale force winds and heavier rain potential. We generally need tropical storms to pass near or west of NYC for the whole area to cash in.

That's what I'm thinking. Wind wise. I doubt we gust much over 40 even on the rest of the island. 

The LI buoy has already had 7.9' at 15 seconds which shows how prolific of a wave maker this thing is. There is going to be major erosion regardless of track 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That's what I'm thinking. Wind wise. I doubt we gust much over 40 even on the rest of the island. 

The LI buoy has already had 7.9' at 15 seconds which shows how prolific of a wave maker this thing is. There is going to be major erosion regardless of track 

Tides are already nearly 1 ft above normal with higher than normal astro tides this week with the new moon. So the beaches will continue to take a pounding with the high surf.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That's why some of the most impactful storms take inland tracks (see Hazel).  People seem to think that as soon as a storm hits land it falls apart, but it isn't true, they still drop a ton of rainfall and gusty winds.  The most impactful track for the entire area is a track from around Wilmington, NC to Atlantic City to somewhere between Newark and JFK.

The Euro and UK are the wettest models compared to the drier NAM and GFS. But all 4 models focus the heaviest totals and strongest winds the further east that you go on Long Island.

Bob took a more west track across Block Island. And it was pretty much like a summer noreaster for areas west of the Twin Forks. We need to get near or to the right of a storms center to experience the strongest impacts.

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and UK are the wettest models compared to the drier NAM and GFS. But all 4 models focus the heaviest totals and strongest winds the further east that you on Long Island.

Bob took a more west track across Block Island. And it was pretty much like a summer noreaster for areas west of the Twin Forks. We need to get near or to the right of a storms center to experience the strongest impacts.

Jose is barely holding onto convection near the center. I expect that the strongest winds will continue to expand away from the center as extra-tropical transition completes. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and UK are the wettest models compared to the drier NAM and GFS. But all 4 models focus the heaviest totals and strongest winds the further east that you on Long Island.

Bob took a more west track across Block Island. And it was pretty much like a summer noreaster for areas west of the Twin Forks. We need to get near or to the right of a storms center to experience the strongest impacts.

The thing I didn't like about Sandy was that it didn't produce much rain.  I was wondering if it had taken a slightly different track if we could have gotten a better combo of rain and wind.  Let's say it curved back into the coast at a further north latitude and moved somewhat quicker.  Take the same track and shift it north to have it swing into Sandy Hook at high tide- what would the effects have been?

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The thing I didn't like about Sandy was that it didn't produce much rain.  I was wondering if it had taken a slightly different track if we could have gotten a better combo of rain and wind.  Let's say it curved back into the coast at a further north latitude and moved somewhat quicker.  Take the same track and shift it north to have it swing into Sandy Hook at high tide- what would the effects have been?

The lack of rain to the North of the center is typical for extra-tropical cyclones. The Southern semi-circle contained heavier rain bands but also lighter winds.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The lack of rain to the North of the center is typical for extra-tropical cyclones. The Southern semi-circle contained heavier rain bands but also lighter winds.

This is true but the area that was just north of the center or right near the center (for example ACY) had both winds over 85 mph and more rain, so I was wondering if that area had a better combo of high winds and also high rainfall totals.

 

[Morris]

Jose looks like a sad excuse this morning. The NHC inexplicably kept it at 85 mph.

[SnowGoose69]

There may be some heavy rain in NYC early in the day for a short time but I expect after 10-11am tomorrow it's mostly dry or showery west of Suffolk 

[bluewave]

We'll see if the GFS can score a coup here with it's more easterly and drier track as it's been the top scoring model recently with Jose. 

 

 

 

 

[doncat]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We'll see if the GFS can score a coup here with it's more easterly and drier track as it's been the top scoring model recently with Jose. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah gfs has been consistent with its more eastern drier track...meanwhile last three Euro runs have cut back precip from several inches on Saturday, to a couple of inches yesterday 12z to 0.75 last night...I suspect the 12z run may cut back further.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah gfs has been consistent with its more eastern drier track...meanwhile last three Euro runs have cut back precip from several inches on Saturday, to a couple of inches yesterday 12z to 0.75 last night...I suspect the 12z run may cut back further.

The Euro tends to do better with high impact stronger events like Sandy, Joaquin, and Irma. But the GFS can get lucky with weaker systems like Jose and Debby.