NJwx85 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I think the system behind Jose is in a more traditionally favorable position for a higher impact event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Don't write Jose off just yet. There is really nothing that forces Jose east. The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative along with the NAO heading in a positive direction leading to increased blocking which the models will correct for in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Latest EURO gave up on that,high latitude loop idea and ultimately gets picked up and kicked out after nearing benchmark. 06Z GFS further east, but stronger, than 0Z. CMC weakest , but closest for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Besides waves and breezes, I think this one is about done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 On 9/16/2017 at 12:07 PM, Metsfan said: Don't write Jose off just yet. There is really nothing that forces Jose east. The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative along with the NAO heading in a positive direction leading to increased blocking which the models will correct for in the coming days. Expand Too foolish to write off Jose just yet even if the models are east of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 It's a sheared mess and models have trended east and weaker, this will be nothing more than a swell producer. Maria on the other hand could be a lot more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Buoy 44025 wave heights predicted up to 23'. Previous runs 25', 21'---so really no change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 12z GFS compared to 00z is is less progressive with Jose at Hr 42. Edit: GFS off the coast with no landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 On 9/16/2017 at 1:19 AM, rclab said: I lived on 75th street off of 11th ave. in dyker heights up until 63. You could play stickball in that street there were so few cars in the fifties. only the big kids age 13+ played in the street we Younger kids played stickball in a community drive we called the big alley. We ran our spauldings into the ground. Or at least until there once high bounce was a memory. Expand Wow I used to live on 75th (Bay Ridge Parkway) between 5th and 6th Avenue. Great area. Taught at the school on 4th Ave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I'm on channel 2 news at 11 (there was no 6pm news today) explaining the Jose waves at jones beach. Big blonde guy wearing blue west suit top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro shifted west and now looks like the Ukie A lot of precip for NYC and coastal SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 CMC still the closest for us with Jose. EURO looping again over the BN SSTA's nearby. GFS rain field stays over the water. CMC has Maria doing an IRMA on Florida by the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 10:45 AM, CIK62 said: CMC still the closest for us with Jose. EURO looping again over the BN SSTA's nearby. GFS rain field stays over the water. CMC has Maria doing an IRMA on Florida by the 24th. Expand Euro is the closest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Even the 6z gfs is a little more west ... should be a interesting set of runs today .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Wave heights at Buoy 44025 down to a 17' prediction after being 20'-25' for two days. Tides still +2' @Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The NAM has up to an inch here but best spot is Montauk Pt., which could get some respectable totals. GFS is just drizzle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The 06z HWRF gives coastal areas a nice hit with outer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 there should be a nice block in place as the ao and nao are forecast to be negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Still saying this ends up going back east and this is an overcorrection. Don't like the hurricane models wanting no part of this and many of the EPS members being east of the Op last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Anecdotally speaking, the past several days are a dish of humid and quasi-tropical airmass. Dews in upper 60s to 70 abound, and atmosphere is milky cloud ridden . So if Jose wants to strike it's obviously abetted by a favorable airmass ahead of it. Not comparing sloppy/mostly east bound Jose to others, but I remember with Gloria several days of cloudy, murky, rainy weather. History has it that 1938 came into similar airmass. Whatever happens with Jose HIS path up here is obviously made a bit more pleasant with the existing airmass. This is no blue-skies, low-dew, September weather pattern he is headed in to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Both the Euro and NAM bring a significant event into the area. I'm kind of shocked at the lack of posts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 9:22 PM, NJwx85 said: Both the Euro and NAM bring a significant event into the area. I'm kind of shocked at the lack of posts in this thread. Expand People think this is going OTS because of the hurricane models lol The winds and rain bands are going to expand as the storm transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 Yeah first TS to effect us since Andrea? Direct impacts I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 NAO really tanks as Jose comes north almost to -2, really indicating the strong blocking pattern taking hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 9:22 PM, NJwx85 said: Both the Euro and NAM bring a significant event into the area. I'm kind of shocked at the lack of posts in this thread. Expand What did the winds look like on the 12z Euro? I'm assuming nothing super serious. Maybe 45mph gusts in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 9:22 PM, NJwx85 said: Both the Euro and NAM bring a significant event into the area. I'm kind of shocked at the lack of posts in this thread. Expand Think it'll be too far east for us to see much. It's already tracking slightly east of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The 18z NAM, 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF all now bring a significant feeder band into the NYC area late Monday into Tuesday, almost like a PRE. Several inches of rain are possible, and the convection should mix down some stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 9:41 PM, Manny said: What did the winds look like on the 12z Euro? I'm assuming nothing super serious. Maybe 45mph gusts in the city? Expand My guess is 40-45 mph gusts tops. And I still think this ticks east anyway. This will probably end up scaring the hell out of everyone for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 10:04 PM, SnowGoose69 said: My guess is 40-45 mph gusts tops. And I still think this ticks east anyway. This will probably end up scaring the hell out of everyone for no reason Expand Euro looks like the gusts will be stronger on Long Island than what SE New England will see anyway. 50-55mph gusts with 2+ inches of rain sounds like a strong possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 On 9/17/2017 at 10:24 PM, LibertyBell said: Euro looks like the gusts will be stronger on Long Island than what SE New England will see anyway. 50-55mph gusts with 2+ inches of rain sounds like a strong possibility. Expand Yeah I think E LI as of now may see that. The 5 boroughs though is probably low 40s. There may be a gust or two higher but that's also assuming we don't see this jog east somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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