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Hurricane Jose

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 12:35 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

There may be some heavy rain in NYC early in the day for a short time but I expect after 10-11am tomorrow it's mostly dry or showery west of Suffolk 

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I was chuckling a bit at the TWC rainfall forecast- they had 1-2 inches for Manhattan, 2-3 inches for Queens and Nassau, 3-5 inches for Western Suffolk and 5-8 inches for Eastern Suffolk (and 8-12 inches for Nantucket.)

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 2:24 PM, bluewave said:

The Euro tends to do better with high impact stronger events like Sandy, Joaquin, and Irma. But the GFS can get lucky with weaker systems like Jose and Debby.

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Based on your research into our biggest systems recently being in October, this may not even be our worst threat of the season, October might bring something much more significant.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 2:39 PM, LibertyBell said:

Based on your research into our biggest systems recently being in October, this may not even be our worst threat of the season, October might bring something much more significant.

 

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Things are a bit different this year so far compared to the 2011-2016 era when the strongest storms arrived in October. The dry air that had been suppressing September tropical activity for some reason reversed this year. We now have a record amount of hurricane activity in the Tropical Atlantic where there had been the recent year suppression. But it will still be interesting to see how things turn out the rest of the fall.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 11:37 AM, LibertyBell said:

That's why some of the most impactful storms take inland tracks (see Hazel).  People seem to think that as soon as a storm hits land it falls apart, but it isn't true, they still drop a ton of rainfall and gusty winds.  The most impactful track for the entire area is a track from around Wilmington, NC to Atlantic City to somewhere between Newark and JFK.

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I highly disagree. That's the track Floyd took and (other then rain) it was hardly the most impactful track. A track similar to Jose that is about 200 miles furth west and continues rapidly north is the ideal track. This keeps the center over water the entire time limiting land interaction weakening. The center makes landfall on western Long Island. 1893 is a good example. And of course the same situation with a last minute left turn into jersey like sandy

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 3:05 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I highly disagree. That's the track Floyd took and (other then rain) it was hardly the most impactful track. A track similar to Jose that is about 200 miles furth west and continues rapidly north is the ideal track. This keeps the center over water the entire time limiting land interaction weakening. The center makes landfall on western Long Island. 1893 is a good example. And of course the same situation with a last minute left turn into jersey like sandy

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Floyd weakened rapidly and did not have much impact because it wasn't moving quickly enough.  Also, most of its flooding rains were well to the west (NW NJ and E PA.)  That's why I deliberately left it off my list :P  I was thinking more like a stronger version of Irene.  If Irene had been a much stronger storm further south it wouldn't have weakened as much at our latitude.  Another one is Bertha 1996.  If it had occurred later in the season and had been stronger, it would have had a much stronger impact at our latitude.  Another example is the 1821 Hurricane - either a Cat 3 or a Cat 4 at S NJ landfall and still a major hurricane up into NYC.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 3:05 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I highly disagree. That's the track Floyd took and (other then rain) it was hardly the most impactful track. A track similar to Jose that is about 200 miles furth west and continues rapidly north is the ideal track. This keeps the center over water the entire time limiting land interaction weakening. The center makes landfall on western Long Island. 1893 is a good example. And of course the same situation with a last minute left turn into jersey like sandy

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I think 1976 Belle took a similar track to the one you envisioned.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 3:02 PM, bluewave said:

Things are a bit different this year so far compared to the 2011-2016 era when the strongest storms arrived in October. The dry air that had been suppressing September tropical activity for some reason reversed this year. We now have a record amount of hurricane activity in the Tropical Atlantic where there had been the recent year suppression. But it will still be interesting to see how things turn out the rest of the fall.

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Chris, what do you think serves as a good analog to this year?  As far as hurricane impacts, do you think this year is worse than either 2004 or 2005?  I think we need one more major hit to make this worse than 2005.

 

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

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Posted

I'm surprised NHC left eastern Suffolk out of the tropical storm warning. I agree with NJ that the wind field is going to expand. I'm at the beach right now surfing and the wind is already up here in Long Beach straight out of the east. There are definitly going to be some pressure gradient winds out there.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 3:19 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I'm surprised NHC left eastern Suffolk out of the tropical storm warning. I agree with NJ that the wind field is going to expand. I'm at the beach right now surfing and the wind is already up here in Long Beach straight out of the east. There are definitly going to be some pressure gradient winds out there.

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Wow how high are the winds and when are the peak winds expected to be? I'm out in the Poconos but coming back to Long Island tonight.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 3:13 PM, LibertyBell said:

Chris, what do you think serves as a good analog to this year?  As far as hurricane impacts, do you think this year is worse than either 2004 or 2005?  I think we need one more major hit to make this worse than 2005.

 

 

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Really no analogs to this year so far. Harvey and Irma were firsts. Harvey for the stall and record rainfall and flooding. Irma for the intensity and WSW dip in that part of the Tropical Atlantic. We also never had 3 hurricanes as strong as Irma, Jose, and Maria pass through that area in under a month.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 5:43 PM, winterwx21 said:

Are we even going to see any rain at all from Jose? I see RGEM gives us pretty much nothing.

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May be a nowcasting deal on the lead rain band.  That's probably going to be all.  If that doesn't materialize then probably not much outside of eastern LI.  5-11am is probably the window for that rain

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 3:19 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I'm surprised NHC left eastern Suffolk out of the tropical storm warning. I agree with NJ that the wind field is going to expand. I'm at the beach right now surfing and the wind is already up here in Long Beach straight out of the east. There are definitly going to be some pressure gradient winds out there.

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The Euro keeps the 40 mph+ gusts along the Jersey Shore and out across Suffolk.

 

ecmwf_uv10g_nyc_7.thumb.png.6121f8cadeb7b00295ec8b12608555cd.png

 

 

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 8:48 PM, bluewave said:

TS watches dropped west of Fire Island Inlet.

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Ahhh ha. NHC loves Fire Island Inlet as a demarcation.  

Im going to be pretty pissed if we come out of this without any precip in Wantagh. We haven't been able to buy a single drop of rain again for the last 2 weeks. The dry hole continues 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 9/18/2017 at 9:14 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ahhh ha. NHC loves Fire Island Inlet as a demarcation.  

Im going to be pretty pissed if we come out of this without any precip in Wantagh. We haven't been able to buy a single drop of rain again for the last 2 weeks. The dry hole continues 

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These offshore track storms never work out for us for rain, it's why I like the slightly inland track (inland runner)- this track is good for surfers though.  I'm not sure if I buy the loop thing for next week, the storm might be nothing more than a few renegade cumulus clouds by then.

 

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