nchighcountrywx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 GFMTN 101.9 mph wind guat at 6:19am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Current Conditions Current conditions at GRANDFATHR as of Friday, March 2nd, 2018 @ 9:00 AM EST (8 mins ago) Temperature: 19.8 °F (-6.8 °C) Dew point: 17.6 °F (-8 °C) Relative humidity: 91% Wind: North (1°) at 72 mph with gusts of 92 mph Pressure: 828 mb (24.45 inHg) station pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 My daughter works on the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 hours ago, jburns said: My daughter works on the mountain. Strong winds still rolling here in Todd ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 At least the weather this week won't be boring... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Sunday: Picking up where we left off with the deep upper trough axis over the Appalachians and increasing CAA behind the front, Wednesday night lows should be below freezing just about everywhere with hard freeze potential across the mountains and NW NC Piedmont, with lingering NW flow snow potential in the mountains. Again ECMWF is basically dry after 00z Thu while GFS keeps some low- end pops across the mountains, so as a compromise just have slight chance with very little in the way of accumulation. Highs Thursday should be a good 10 or so degrees below seasonal normals with some gusty post-frontal winds, dropping wind chills into the single digits across the mountains. Meanwhile a secondary shortwave digging down the western side of the longwave trough will form into a little closed low and dive down toward the mountains, bringing a little reinforcing shot of moisture to mountain zones Thursday night into early Friday. The reinforcing front for overnight will likely lead to a hard freeze across most of the area, but some improvement on Friday (though still below seasonal normals) as thicknesses begin increasing as the trough pushes to the east. After Friday, things get more interesting, but with less confidence given differences in the models. A shortwave sliding down the NW flow across the Plains combined with a sharper digging shortwave diving into the northern Rockies will induce surface low formation across the Southern Plains Friday night into Saturday. Developing warm front stretching east across the Ohio Valley and associated isentropic upglide will allow moisture to push toward the Southern Appalachians by daybreak Saturday. As is usually the case, the battle between moisture and cold air will be in full force Saturday morning, and using a blend of guidance this warrants a rain/snow mix at onset for all but extreme southern zones, though again confidence is not particularly high. Temperatures aloft for now aloft cold enough that ptype shouldn`t be a huge concern, but in the end this will depend on whether or not we`re able to have moisture deep enough for dendrites vs. starting off with some cold rain or freezing rain (with shallower moisture and surface temperature dependent). A quick warm-up to just below seasonal temps on Saturday will quickly change any ptypes quickly to all rain, but interest continues to increase with the inverse of confidence as we push into the new day 7 (Sunday). Bottom line, ECMWF is a good 24 hours faster with the strengthening surface low and takes it farther north, but the GFS tries to develop a Miller-B low pressure pattern around a damming high. Either way, whether more of a convection concern or a p-type concern, the forecast a week out looks like it could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 We all knew during the February heat wave that winter would return in March. The indices said it was coming although this is typical for the mountains. March is very much a winter month; even more so than February (in recent years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Winter's last gasp this week? Looks like we will get a couple shots at winter weather. Late weekend system looks like something worth following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Kinda surprised there's not more talk in here with what the GFS and Euro are showing for late weekend into early next week. Looks like a decent event for lots of folks in the mountains potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 hours ago, Buckethead said: Kinda surprised there's not more talk in here with what the GFS and Euro are showing for late weekend into early next week. Looks like a decent event for lots of folks in the mountains potentially. Saw this coming when our bell cow aka Met1985 took to trains. Hope he is doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 hours ago, Buckethead said: Kinda surprised there's not more talk in here with what the GFS and Euro are showing for late weekend into early next week. Looks like a decent event for lots of folks in the mountains potentially. Trying not to jinx it over here. NWFS looks good Wed/Fri too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 0z Euro and 0z Euro Ensemble are night and day when looking at the Sunday-Monday event. Clearly the models are struggling with this potential. The first half of the ensemble members never really develop a strong low, whereas most of the back half members develop a strong coastal. A couple of members on the back half even show 12"+ accumulation. The potential is there for a big March storm, but lets enjoy this upcoming NWF while the models sort it out. 3km NAM develops a quasi clipper type system with the piece of energy on the backside and moves it through early tomorrow morning before it phases and produces fireworks to our NE. Don't think any accumulation is possible below 3500', but a decent snow shower or two could make it even into downtown Asheville tomorrow morning imo. Looks like it will be a prolonged event as the low strengthens off the coast and moisture continues to stream through WNC. I could see snow showers lasting around Beech Mountain until late Thursday evening. All and all, should be an interesting event here compared to what we have experienced over the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I'll take member 35 and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buckethead said: I'll take member 35 and call it a winter. I'll take it, this would be one last event for the winter, then ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 38 minutes ago, Tacoma said: I'll take it, this would be one last event for the winter, then ready for spring. I know this is out of season but couldn’t resist. It’s A Bute Clark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z ICON is the trend you want to see. Without taking the precip verbatim, look at the 500mb cutoff low barrel over WNC and captured the surface low that’s just off the SC/NC Coast, all while going negative tilt. If that happens my friends, WNC will be snow white Monday morning. Way too many variables to speak with any certainty at the moment, but this one is going to be fun to track. Also, 3km NAM continues to increase snow totals on the NC/TN border, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4”-6”+ by the end of Thursday in the favored highest elevation location. 12z 3km has a max snow total of over 20”, but that is likely overdone. Half of that could be possible though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's nice to have something to track again. And yeah the 3km nam is nuts. Guess it's time to go get another bag of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Can someone please share any images of the 3K NAM? We have family coming up from Holden Beach this weekend and not sure if we need to reschedule...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Um.. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Can someone please share any images of the 3K NAM? We have family coming up from Holden Beach this weekend and not sure if we need to reschedule...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, Hvward said: Um.. Yes please. Kinda see some similarities to 3/1/2009 there but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Bullseye for the peak, Mt. Mitchell, Grandfather, Beech and over to Roan...would be a nice WNC event...then on to spring...thank for sharing Hvmard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 41 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Kinda see some similarities to 3/1/2009 there but thats just me. I could certainly see that. 12z Euro strings everything out though with the low pressure to the NE dragging our energy away from the 500mb low. Still a long way to go with this one, and its probably going to be feast of famine.. but I am just glad to have at least one last system to track before Spring arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Shot this timelapse just a few minutes ago looking ENE along the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ceiling just now breaking here in Todd, and can see some blue sky ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 BTW...passed an old home today and the smoke from the chimney was going down to the ground...and have heard that's an Old Wives' tale that snow is a comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 29° with moderate snow currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Already have 1" on the ground. Still snowing moderately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Already have 1" on the ground. Still snowing moderately. Yeah, I saw Madison County on WLOS . You guys are getting pretty good snow !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Yeah, I saw Madison County on WLOS . You guys are getting pretty good snow !! My kids have another snow day... they're going to be going through June 14 now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.