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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This gives a great indication too just how heavy the snow was falling last night.

FB_IMG_1517344871900.jpg

Glad to see the mountains scored pretty good last night. And to those east of the foothills got in on the action too. 

As for the foothills. Jumped right over us. 

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The NWS is keying in on our chances. 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

NCZ033-048>052-058-312030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
325 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...Winter weather likely. Accumulating snowfall is
expected to develop near the Tennessee border Thursday evening.
..Friday...Winter weather likely. Snowfall will continue to
accumulate early Friday morning, before tapering off around Noon.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...Winter weather possible. Another frontal system will move
across the area Sunday possibly bringing another round of wintry
precipitation to the mountains.
..Monday...Winter weather possible. Any wintry precipitation will
end on Monday.
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1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Imo this is good news. People are worried about the GFS being warm, but who would want the GFS to have an ideal solution this far out?

Even with the super amped and warm GFS we get a good thump of snow on the front end. 

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00z 3km NAM thinks a dusting is possible for most tomorrow evening and a 2-4”+ on the border. I though dry air might hinder, but 850mb temps look really cold and per the 3km it won’t have any problem pushing all the way into Hendersonville and beyond. Will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition. 06z will be interesting. Regarding Sunday 0z GFS appeared a tad warmer at the surface but was actually a tick color overall at 850mb with KAVL only getting to 3degree c compared to 4c on 18z. Though the 0z does erode away the 0degree 850mb temps earlier. Lots of fine details to still be worked out. Who knows with this one, but I would like my chances in Highlands and around Boone. How fast do the 0 degree 850mb temps retreat. Time will tell.


.

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More good stuff. I know it's small events but the winter appeal never gets old.

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
408 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of to 2 to 3
  inches over the lower terrain, with 3 to 4 inches possible
  across the higher elevations.

* WHERE...North Carolina Counties along the Tennessee Border.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening until 9 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible,
  especially above 3500ft. These winds could blow around unsecured
  items and make driving higher profile vehicles more difficult.
  In addition, be prepared for periods of reduced visibilities and
  slippery road conditions with patchy black ice likely to develop.

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6 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

This nickel and dime stuff is OK but we need a decent storm. Doesn't look like we'll get one anytime soon though. But, I guess we've done pretty well so far in this La Nina winter considering all the doom and gloom forecasts that were put out last fall.

Temp - 32.8

Wind - calm

Partly Cloudy

I would take a nickel or dime. I have just been getting Canadian pennies here the last couple of times.

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5 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

 

It does change to rain after this initial thump of snow, though.

 

image.thumb.png.6488afdbdd0e62e08aa3a68c47fcc897.png

This winter, we take anything we can get LOL! I will say the 12z gfs and nam for that matter has trended more toward the flatter and suppressed southern stream idea. Great for all of us if we want profiles to hang in there a little longer. Looks like a positive trend to start the day, as the american models have shifted to show a better outcome.

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