SnoJoe Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 GSP updated their WWA. Nothing big, but decent. Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell- 1012 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 5 inches along the higher ridge tops. In addition, very windy conditions will develop with northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph, and higher elevation gusts of 40 to 50 mph at times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Already some snow right along the boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Already some snow right along the boarder. Yup, switched over to snow about 15 minutes ago. Already have a nice dusting. Temp dropped to 28.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Yup, switched over to snow about 15 minutes ago. Already have a nice dusting. Temp dropped to 28.8. Yeah it was quick bit temps are dropping pretty fast especially with elevation. I think this is just a little taste of what's to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'm trying to be optimistic about this chance, but I have been burnt so many times as of late with nwfs. At the very least, you guys to my west will cash in. Share whatever photos you take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The wind is picking up also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 16 hours ago, AirNelson39 said: Very cool Calc! Welcome to the drone club! Happy flying! Thanks, Nelson. I very much appreciate it. Can't wait to try out some other video opportunities with the drone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 hours ago, SnoJoe said: GSP updated their WWA. Nothing big, but decent. Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell- 1012 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 5 inches along the higher ridge tops. In addition, very windy conditions will develop with northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph, and higher elevation gusts of 40 to 50 mph at times.... I look for Buncombe County to be included in the WWA, you know with rain then snow showers and a low of 22 the roads will be very slick in the morning. Windchills of 10 in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks great at higher elevations, even if the valleys miss out. In addition to orographic lift, PVA creates a quasi-clipper situation. South end of PVA is at or just south of the area, which adds confidence. 700 mb moisture picture is adequate. 850 CAA is strong. Going to be a good 36 hours at elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Sun is out a bit now but temps continue to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 44 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Looks great at higher elevations, even if the valleys miss out. In addition to orographic lift, PVA creates a quasi-clipper situation. South end of PVA is at or just south of the area, which adds confidence. 700 mb moisture picture is adequate. 850 CAA is strong. Going to be a good 36 hours at elevation. Agreed! This looks to be a robust event (although short-lived). 3km NAM suggests some locations in excess of 6" totals, and likely 1" even in the valleys. Probably the most intense NWFS I have seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Snow has started at my house at 3200' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks great at higher elevations, even if the valleys miss out. In addition to orographic lift, PVA creates a quasi-clipper situation. South end of PVA is at or just south of the area, which adds confidence. 700 mb moisture picture is adequate. 850 CAA is strong. Going to be a good 36 hours at elevation. Good analysis here Jeff. Dew points look good at 700mb and that’s what hurt last Monday/Tuesday NWFS potential. 12z 3km NAM has a nice band that breaks containment at the onset around 9-10 tonight. Sort of a quasi clipper type system as you mentioned. Usually the valleys can manage a dusting with a strong onset like what is being shown. I would love for Wolf or Clingmans Dome to top 6”. That would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The 12z NAM looks very impressive for tonight into tomorrow morning. As mentioned above this looks very robust and pretty intense for this short term uplope event. So look for this to come in fast and heavy with a lot of wind and blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The 12z NAM looks very impressive for tonight into tomorrow morning. As mentioned above this looks very robust and pretty intense for this short term uplope event. So look for this to come in fast and heavy with a lot of wind and blowing snow. I'm really curious to see if the event is intense enough to push appreciable snow outside of the favored upslope areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 M-ping reports showing snow falling in KC, 12z 3km didn’t pick that up. The band to watch is the one developing across the Ohio Valley/Southern Midwest stretching from KC thru Indy. Looks to be overperforming at the moment, let’s see if the trend continues.. All that moisture will bank up the high elevations of WNC, so whatever develops now on radar is heading this way. HRRR also didn’t pick up the KC snow showers. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, cold air aloft said: I'm really curious to see if the event is intense enough to push appreciable snow outside of the favored upslope areas. I think with as robust as this looks the whole county may get into the fun. I do think that Maggie does good along with the other favored areas. The forcing is so impressive I do not see how most do not do well along the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'm still not sold on tonight, or at least in the way you guys are talking. Main reliance for accumulations is the heavy band that moves through at the start, which could very easily underwhelm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 21 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm still not sold on tonight, or at least in the way you guys are talking. Main reliance for accumulations is the heavy band that moves through at the start, which could very easily underwhelm. It's going to be interesting for sure. I will say, while nwfs has burnt the Boone area more than once, systems with convective components have always over performed while I've lived here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 28 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm still not sold on tonight, or at least in the way you guys are talking. Main reliance for accumulations is the heavy band that moves through at the start, which could very easily underwhelm. When is this said band supposed to push through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 22 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: When is this said band supposed to push through? The last I had heard was sometime around 10 tonight. But that might have changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 32 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: When is this said band supposed to push through? 9 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: The last I had heard was sometime around 10 tonight. But that might have changed Yeah fellas every thing really develops this evening through the night. I know the radar looks less than stellar currently but things will tick up fast and furious tonight. The 18z again just hammers the upslope areas. I would not be surprised to see some spots over 6 inches with this kind of setup. The forcing the mouture look really good coming from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 In interested to see if there's a couple claps of thunder in the more robust areas of that main convective band. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 HRRR has us in a 4 to 5 hour window for this to happen, the WRF models have us in it for a little longer, which i think is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 HRRR has us in a 4 to 5 hour window for this to happen, the WRF models have us in it for a little longer, which i think is interesting.From what I've seen the HRRR struggles with NWFS events. Not sure why but at least on the TT maps it never shows anything. Not sure about the experimental though. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 It's going to be interesting watching this "band" just about disappear coming off the Cumberland Plateau and then magically reappearing when the upper level energy hits the apps and the radar goes "BAM". Quick 2-3 hours of decent snow along the TN line (and some areas east of there) and then more shallow moisture flow stuff until mid Tuesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 22 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: From what I've seen the HRRR struggles with NWFS events. Not sure why but at least on the TT maps it never shows anything. Not sure about the experimental though. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk I really do not know of a model that does well with upslope moisture. Seems like it's hit or miss around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 the radar has really lit up the past few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Cloud deck starting to move in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yeah dark clouds streaming in from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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