Buckethead Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Flurries and 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR continues to pound mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GSP still has the event being rain for an hour or two here in the mountains before transitioning to snow. Not sure I buy that, the history of this storm has temperatures plummeting as soon as precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: HRRR continues to pound mountains 5.2 in avl. Gsp would bust spectacularly if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: 5.2 in avl. Gsp would bust spectacularly if that were to happen. GSP did not mention the HRRR in their afternoon discussion. Appears they are going with NAM/GFS blend, which does show less than 1" for AVL. Nod to the HRRR - it has been showing longer duration snow event for the mountains each of its runs today. No waffling. Based on the over-performance of this system upstream, have to believe the HRRR is onto something (maybe not 5" worth, but also more than 1"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 How did the hrrr do in the December storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: GSP did not mention the HRRR in their afternoon discussion. Appears they are going with NAM/GFS blend, which does show less than 1" for AVL. Nod to the HRRR - it has been showing longer duration snow event for the mountains each of its runs today. No waffling. Based on the over-performance of this system upstream, have to believe the HRRR is onto something (maybe not 5" worth, but also more than 1"). 18z NAM was a bump up also. This is a tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Good luck fellas! Im hoping on the hrrr and im going to ride it till the wheels fall off lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Pathetic is all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: How did the hrrr do in the December storm? It did well once the precip was here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 How did the hrrr do in the December storm?It was junk IMBY. We got about half what it showed, especially once the event was underway. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Pathetic is all I can say. This doesn't look as pathetic as past NAM runs for WNC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Pathetic is all I can say. The forecast, the models, the radar, or the chances of much snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Lol the radar looks pathetic. I'm not sure I trust the models spitting out these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Light, light, flurry. Temp is above freezing though at 33.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 To get what the models are showing the moisture need a to set up right over us for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: To get what the models are showing the moisture need a to set up right over us for a bit. That's true, but remember, we have a frozen ground and with the bulk of the precipitation holding off until after sunset, not much of the snow will be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, cold air aloft said: That's true, but remember, we have a frozen ground and with the bulk of the precipitation holding off until after sunset, not much of the snow will be wasted. I agree but I just see the mountains eating the moisture up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The warm up today ahead of the front was real.. moderate rain for 2 hours in Graham County so far..alot of precipitation waisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS trending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Something we should all keep in mind, is that our ratios will be high. Even a little bit of qpf could produce quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I agree but I just see the mountains eating the moisture up. Per radar, it's already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Light flurries here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: The warm up today ahead of the front was real.. moderate rain for 2 hours in Graham County so far..alot of precipitation waisted What's the temp there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: What's the temp there? 35 in town and 24 at the Tennessee line with 2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We are getting virga here. Good trends on the models but might be too little to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Where is this 3-4" of snow gonna come from that the latest models are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Where is this 3-4" of snow gonna come from that the latest models are showing That's a great question. We are suppose to get more moisture development right over us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Where is this 3-4" of snow gonna come from that the latest models are showing HT or HVWard can correct any inaccuracies, but the way I understand it, our main snow will not be from the line crossing the border, but from when a meso low develops in upstate SC and the precip backbuilds from that into the mountains. Where the low develops, to the NW of that precip should blossom which is what all the models seem to have some indication of that now. So, it could be us, could be the foothills. Like I say, those with more knowledge, feel free to correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: HT or HVWard can correct any inaccuracies, but the way I understand it, our main snow will not be from the line crossing the border, but from when a meso low develops in upstate SC and the precip backbuilds from that into the mountains. Where the low develops, to the NW of that precip should blossom which is what all the models seem to have some indication of that now. So, it could be us, could be the foothills. Like I say, those with more knowledge, feel free to correct me. You are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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