strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Whats your facebook page name? Even though I am not living in the area at the moment I will share it with friends and family. You are a great forecaster Here ya go. Ward does great FB live events. https://www.facebook.com/Ashevillewx/ Also, sitting down the mountain in the foothills my interest in this event has gone up during today's models runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The general idea from some models, that the moisture will just vanish as it approaches the mountains, doesn't seem logical to me. I feel like to some degree, geographical lift would have to prevent this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The general idea from some models, that the moisture will just vanish as it approaches the mountains, doesn't seem logical to me. I feel like to some degree, geographical lift would have to prevent this. You see orographic lift do this to warmer systems a lot. A line of thunderstorms or rain shield vanishes as it hits the mountains. Not sure if it's the same case in winter because of it being a key component for flow snow. Maybe Conductor Met (Congrats!) or others can enlighten us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Also, congrats Met! I haven't been on the forum long, but your insight is always spot on. Best of luck to you and your family! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 SREF for my area has a mean of just under 2 inches. Lot of nothing's and a couple of 5 to 6 inchers. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Most systems I have some some sort of "gut feel", right or wrong. Not this one. I can see anything from a total bust to a result that way over performs forcasts. I'll just wait and enjoy and learn off of this one, whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Higher than expected snowfall in western Tenn. has caused the local NWS to upgrade from a WWA to a WSW. Think that means anything for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: Higher than expected snowfall in western Tenn. has caused the local NWS to upgrade from a WWA to a WSW. Think that means anything for our area? Hopefully the trend continues, but over performance is surely a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, BooneWX said: Also, congrats Met! I haven't been on the forum long, but your insight is always spot on. Best of luck to you and your family! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The models look a bit better tonight, well the GFS does... I think this will be a look at the radar and see what is coming at us and how do things develop. Can the RGEM be trusted? I Am not sure, so this will be an hour by hour watching tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just saw a tweet that shows a storm report in Kentucky where the location is now approaching a foot. Heavy bands setting up and training over the same areas. Apparently the same area was only forecasted to receive 1-3. What a miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Still have very low confidence of the eastern side of the Apps being able to receive meaningful snow. The only way I see the eastern sides getting their fair share is with the rapid redevelopment that the HRRR is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temps starting to torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 A co-worker just heard from a family member that flurries are flying in the Fines Creek area of Haywood County, near the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The short range guidance isnt looking all that bad for SWNC, AVL area and extending foothills. The HRRR, RAP, and RGEM are all showing at least a few inches for most areas.. GFS and NAM are different story obviously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The main line with this thing look very weak and looks like the mountains will eat it up. To me this has turned into an upslope snow even for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 One thing is that it is an absolute beautiful day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 You can tell how weak the line is on radar. It is breaking up already. I think this thing will be maybe flurries and a few snow showers before drying up. At least before the upslope snow begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You can tell how weak the line is on radar. It is breaking up already. I think this thing will be maybe flurries and a few snow showers before drying up. At least before the upslope snow begins. I was thinking the same thing; expect destruction of the line when it hits the mountains. I hope it can get back together and do something for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Moonhowl said: I was thinking the same thing; expect destruction of the line when it hits the mountains. I hope it can get back together and do something for central NC. Yeah I agree. We never do well in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 In the TN Valley forum, some are saying that the decay of the initial band was forecasted to happen and that the main line of precipitation will re intensify. It will be interesting to see if radar verifies that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Lookout posted in the other thread but southern upslope continues to be the trend in the latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The short range models certainly look nice for all of WNC basically but hard to put much faith in them considering what the other guidance looks like. Euro is especially discouraging and worse than last nights run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looks like the southern escarpment of transylvania and henderson counties might do pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Huntsville radar site is down,thus making radar look ragged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR and RAP look great for all the mountain areas. Wish I could believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Sref plumes up to 1.77 for Asheville for what it is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Someone is going to get leeside enhancement I believe and a meso low is going to develop in NEGA/upstate SC. The question is where does the heaviest band of snow setup? Right over mtns/foothills or does it redevelop east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The 12:40 snow map from GSP shows accumulation of .2 inches. Needless to say, they are not buying any short range models unless that changes with their afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 To my untrained eye, the band in E TN looks a lot healthier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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