Met1985 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 The 7 to 10 day range of the 12z GFS has a big trough centered right over North Dakota and just sits there. The ridge on the west coast is not conducive for us too get a big trough to swing through. One run but several changes in this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 No blocking means a warm Halloween... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 12z Euro looks pretty meh. It will get cold but a lot of pieces flying around and I think the models do not have a good grasp on blocking yet if there is any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 The 15 day stretch starting October 24 through November 8th will average below normal temp wise for our region(SE). Can't see out past that time with alot of confidence but don't see any reason to be pessimistic verse optimistic past 11/8. May not mean much flake wise, but none of us will be sunbathing and wearing summer wardrobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 a couple things about the 18z is that next weeks front looks better. It seems will will likely get a killing freeze and we will likely see highs in the 30s and 40s. Also there seems to be a system that swings through on the back side of the trough that may give us a chance of snow snow flurries on this run. Still I am not banking on that a lot currently. The extended after November 1st looks horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: a couple things about the 18z is that next weeks front looks better. It seems will will likely get a killing freeze and we will likely see highs in the 30s and 40s. Also there seems to be a system that swings through on the back side of the trough that may give us a chance of snow snow flurries on this run. Still I am not banking on that a lot currently. The extended after November 1st looks horrible. I'll take a good frost at this point. Lowest temp for me thus far is 36.3. Highs have been pleasant the last couple of days but I like that 40 degree high/low spread we can get this time of year. I have to say the leaf color was absolutely horrific this year, at least for Yancey and Mitchell counties. What color that did come through was so dull that it looked almost brown. It might still have time for the lower elly's but we're pretty much done up here. Sad, it kinda' kicks off the winter season for me. But.....one of the best things about living in the mountains is that it will snow. Maybe not as much as we want, but it will snow. Looking forward to the first one. While I'm naked, in a hot tub, on my deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 But.....one of the best things about living in the mountains is that it will snow. Maybe not as much as we want, but it will snow. Looking forward to the first one. While I'm naked, in a hot tub, on my deck.You mountain folk enjoy your snow a little differently than we do down here in the lowlands, it seems. We tend to walk, sled, build, and observe it, but we don't tend to do any of that sans clothing. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoJoe said: I'll take a good frost at this point. Lowest temp for me thus far is 36.3. Highs have been pleasant the last couple of days but I like that 40 degree high/low spread we can get this time of year. I have to say the leaf color was absolutely horrific this year, at least for Yancey and Mitchell counties. What color that did come through was so dull that it looked almost brown. It might still have time for the lower elly's but we're pretty much done up here. Sad, it kinda' kicks off the winter season for me. But.....one of the best things about living in the mountains is that it will snow. Maybe not as much as we want, but it will snow. Looking forward to the first one. While I'm naked, in a hot tub, on my deck. Yeah sometimes in these early season cold fronts we get mixing issues with elevation. Seems like you have encountered that. Yeah the leaf season is very dull and around Haywood pretty much sucks. Yeah we will get snow. Even in the horrible 2011/12 year we got 14 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 31 with another frosty morning. The models still look impressive for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 Everything seems on track for high elevations flurries/snow showers Wed night. GSP evening mentioning it in their AFD now. I'm planning to head up to Roan Mountain after work on Wednesday to hopefully get this season started. In other news: I'll take ensemble member e13 for $1,000, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Leaf season was terrible here too. Most of the trees lost their leaves early and what was left had very little color. On to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Was in Boone today for the game. And all I can say is mother nature owes everyone a refund. No color at all. Sticks and grayish brown leaves. Well find out down this way in 10 or so days but probably get same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 11 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Was in Boone today for the game. And all I can say is mother nature owes everyone a refund. No color at all. Sticks and grayish brown leaves. Well find out down this way in 10 or so days but probably get same result. Boone looks like junk but the Parkway over Grandfather FINALLY has good color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 How accurate would you guys say the forecast on weatherunderground is? Im not buying the 4-6" of snow it shows up here next Sunday-Monday, but it's hard not to feel optimistic when you see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Looks like some of y'all could get some moisture... GSP HWO .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. ..Monday...Heavy rain possible. Rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches will be possible through Monday evening, especially along the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 9 hours ago, Buckethead said: How accurate would you guys say the forecast on weatherunderground is? Im not buying the 4-6" of snow it shows up here next Sunday-Monday, but it's hard not to feel optimistic when you see that. Absolutely do not buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 9 hours ago, Buckethead said: How accurate would you guys say the forecast on weatherunderground is? Im not buying the 4-6" of snow it shows up here next Sunday-Monday, but it's hard not to feel optimistic when you see that. Fake news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 44 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Fake news Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 7 hours ago, Met1985 said: Lol! All joking aside, it should be the first flakes of the year and some light accumulations in the higher elevations near the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: All joking aside, it should be the first flakes of the year and some light accumulations in the higher elevations near the border. Yeah I agree. The mid term patter has flipped for the better. I like most of what I'm seeing. Going to get a lot of rain today. Already raining heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I'll gladly take novelty flakes. I'm not picky, lol. The rain hasn't been too heavy this morning, but the wind is quite impressive...already getting gusts in the 30mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Boy is it pouring out. Windy raining and just ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Yes, wonderful isn't it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 17 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said: Yes, wonderful isn't it!! Absolutely! I love it actually but a busted my tail outside before work lol. I am glad to see the nasty weather. We need the rain and brings a great change in our weather very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 A lot of wrecks around the region currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Ok some takeaways from today's 12z gfs is that we are going to probably see a killing frost this week. Will we see some flakes? I'm not really sure. Most of the moisture has dried up that would have given us some flakes. The rest of the week looks very cool and fall like until we get into next weekend. We see an even better trough coming into the east for us that will bring us colder weather than what we are going to see and that may actually give us our first flakes of the season at least that is the way it looks currently. So we go cold then we rebound a bit and then a stronger cold front comes through next weekend. Also in my opinion in that the GFS is doing a much better job with the trough orientation than the Euro is. The euro has been bouncing around a lot with next weekends trough while the GFS has been pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Flash flood warning out for us now I've had 4.80 inches so far today and the wind is rippin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Flash flood warning out for us now I've had 4.80 inches so far today and the wind is rippin. Impressive. Southern Haywood is in an Advisory and it is pouring. You are in prime location for these types of events. Keep us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Scanner really lighting up roads being closed a lot of trees and power lines down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Just had a few loud claps of thunder. Approaching 3 inches of rain so far (2.84). Looks like the back end will swing through us soon though so probably no flooding up this way. Had a gust to 38 about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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