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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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29 minutes ago, J.C. said:

I'm really a fan of that place, they invested a lot in their snowmaking a couple years ago.

Yeah they had to so they could continue to make good snow. The past 3 winters have been really rough for the ski resorts around her but this early season snow and cold this year have put a bright spot on this early season. 

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5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah they had to so they could continue to make good snow. The past 3 winters have been really rough for the ski resorts around her but this early season snow and cold this year have put a bright spot on this early season. 

I know, I feel bad for them. They had to deal with all the warm weather, then the drought last year on top of that.

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1 minute ago, J.C. said:

I know, I feel bad for them. They had to deal with all the warm weather, then the drought last year on top of that.

Between last year's drought and the super warm winter they just could not win to save there lives. This year even though its 60 today has been very refreshing. Especially starting out with 12 inches of fresh heavy wet powder helps a whole lot! They have a great base currently from 14 to 40 inches I believe. 

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23 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Between last year's drought and the super warm winter they just could not win to save there lives. This year even though its 60 today has been very refreshing. Especially starting out with 12 inches of fresh heavy wet powder helps a whole lot! They have a great base currently from 14 to 40 inches I believe. 

I'm gonna hop up there Christmas evening and make some new laps.  Thanks for the update!

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9 hours ago, Met1985 said:

It's a week out and the models are jumping like crazy. It's too much fun watching the weenies in the main thread.  It is interesting but we need to get a lot closer before we go beast mode. A lot can go wrong from now to then.

True. I've been excited about this time period for a while myself. 12z Euro delivers again and the EPS looks nice. GEFS also looks fantastic. 
Better consistency at this point than we saw with the last system. 

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Really like the upcoming pattern. Flakes tonight/tomorrow morning for higher elevations and flurries around Asheville. Then short range models are picking up on the chance for a few snowflakes on Tuesday morning as well by lift associated with one of many vort maxes that will move through WNC over the next 10-15 days. Buried energy in the Pac Jet just pinwheels for days, spinning off perturbation after perturbation. Just need a little stream interaction over the south and we will be in business. Fun times ahead for sure, I think the Thursday/Fri threat is legit and could likely icy, but I am also interested in the following wave as well. Could be looking at a big storm to begin January if we can get that ball of energy at 5h that sits off of Baja MX to be kicked our way at the right time.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Hvward said:

Really like the upcoming pattern. Flakes tonight/tomorrow morning for higher elevations and flurries around Asheville. Then short range models are picking up on the chance for a few snowflakes on Tuesday morning as well by lift associated with one of many vort maxes that will move through WNC over the next 10-15 days. Buried energy in the Pac Jet just pinwheels for days, spinning off perturbation after perturbation. Just need a little stream interaction over the south and we will be in business. Fun times ahead for sure, I think the Thursday/Fri threat is legit and could likely icy, but I am also interested in the following wave as well. Could be looking at a big storm to begin January if we can get that ball of energy at 5h that sits off of Baja MX to be kicked our way at the right time.

 

 

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I had to interrupt Christmas dinner to post about that second storm (the new years one), holy heck it looks good on the 18z GFS, even if max precip is SE of the high country.

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Just wanted to stop by and wish you all a very Merry Christmas! Hope it’s a great one for all of you. Please keep those that are less fortunate & those serving our country in your thoughts this holiday season. Thanks for letting this beachcomber invade your thread every so often so I can feed my snow addiction. Bless you all!!!

 

 

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12z GFS shows some promise with an overrunning event around New Years.  That energy finally gets kicked our way in the Southern Jet and confluence between the two streams produces a nice overrunning event for most of NC.  Lets see where this goes, obviously the GFS will change next run, but in my opinion this is a decent look and could trend even stronger with more precipitation if more stream interaction occurs.  Still just noteworthy though imo.

 

 

GFS12zDec26PrecipNewyrs.jpg

GFS12zDec26thNewYrsStorm.jpg

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On 12/24/2017 at 10:48 AM, Hvward said:

Really like the upcoming pattern. Flakes tonight/tomorrow morning for higher elevations and flurries around Asheville. Then short range models are picking up on the chance for a few snowflakes on Tuesday morning as well by lift associated with one of many vort maxes that will move through WNC over the next 10-15 days. Buried energy in the Pac Jet just pinwheels for days, spinning off perturbation after perturbation. Just need a little stream interaction over the south and we will be in business. Fun times ahead for sure, I think the Thursday/Fri threat is legit and could likely icy, but I am also interested in the following wave as well. Could be looking at a big storm to begin January if we can get that ball of energy at 5h that sits off of Baja MX to be kicked our way at the right time.

 

 

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Ward 48 hrs latter and I agree with the optimism coming up even down my way the next 10 days. To many petrubutions fixing to swing by and Cold firmly entrenched.

I wanted to call your attn to the last big event a couple of weeks ago. Nav model run after run zeroing in on that event and never wavering. You stated that you learn in one of your met classes that when you see a model sticking to its guns run after run and never wavering, it's a red flag it could be on to something and needs to be taking seriously. Well the German model ICON has consistently been advertising the Thursday event as a big deal for a large part on NC,espeacilly peidmont. Will not waver. It's also known to be the highest coarse model, higher than the euro. Curious to your thoughts and if youve been observing this as it unfolds. Gonna be interesting to see if that theory has legs again.

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2 hours ago, NCSNOW said:
Ward 48 hrs latter and I agree with the optimism coming up even down my way the next 10 days. To many petrubutions fixing to swing by and Cold firmly entrenched.
I wanted to call your attn to the last big event a couple of weeks ago. Nav model run after run zeroing in on that event and never wavering. You stated that you learn in one of your met classes that when you see a model sticking to its guns run after run and never wavering, it's a red flag it could be on to something and needs to be taking seriously. Well the German model ICON has consistently been advertising the Thursday event as a big deal for a large part on NC,espeacilly peidmont. Will not waver. It's also known to be the highest coarse model, higher than the euro. Curious to your thoughts and if youve been observing this as it unfolds. Gonna be interesting to see if that theory has legs again.

 


I think the ICON could be missing a meso high that most models try and resolve over WNC during the event. You can see though that the ICON may not be too far fetched with some models making a NW shift with the precip field. Honestly I haven’t watched to ICON model enough to analyze its tendencies, but if other models don’t begin to dramatically work towards its solution.. it may begin to fold over the next few hours. This is why I love living in WNC. There are soooo many factors to consider and the mountains add a wildcard to every system. Things stay interesting up here! NWFS/clipper could be the story around here Friday, who knows.. but snow showers will certainly be possible Thursday if the ICON is correct!

 

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1 hour ago, fritschy said:

So our New Years storm that looked so promising is gone, things were looking so good for us that there were three chances of a storm or some snow, 29, Jan.1, and Jan. 4, are they all gone now, very frustrating.

That's what happens when we get theses huge highs coming down from the arctic. People say we just need the cold air we just need the cold, the moisture will be there are kind of right kind of wrong. We do need cold but not super cold because suppression is a huge issue in these huge high pressures coming down. Really we get our best snows with setups similar like we had at the first of December. 

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9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That's what happens when we get theses huge highs coming down from the arctic. People say we just need the cold air we just need the cold, the moisture will be there are kind of right kind of wrong. We do need cold but not super cold because suppression is a huge issue in these huge high pressures coming down. Really we get our best snows with setups similar like we had at the first of December. 

Yup. I feel that it is tougher getting a wide winter storm with such a strong push of cold air coming down. Not heard of, just tougher I feel. With that said, time will tell...

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16 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Yup. I feel that it is tougher getting a wide winter storm with such a strong push of cold air coming down. Not heard of, just tougher I feel. With that said, time will tell...

Yeah I agree. We usually do our best with snows from 20 degrees up. That usually screws others out of snow but then you run the systems suppressing all the way to the gulf and then you have no chance for any sizable snow in the SE. IT is what it is though. Just have to watch and see. 

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