WintersNotComing Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 55 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Guys....Guys.... I can't wait to spend the next few months dreaming of this at hour 384. In all seriousness though, does anyone from SC remember a few years ago when some of the midlands got their first snow on November 1st? These things are possible, but my understanding of the factors that led to that situation is very limited. Edit: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/1 NOV 2014 SNOW EVENT.pdf Here's a short write up of the event. I didn't realize I was talking about the midlands in the mountains and foothills thread but the upstate got some of this too so it's still relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I was living in Lexington County SC for that 11/1 snow. That was all we saw (if my memory is right) the entire season. I moved 3 hours away to Wolf Laurel because that's not a real winter down there. 10/29 would be a happy day up here if the 12z gfs was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Temp down to 40 degrees already. I absolutely love this weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 36 here currently. Just walked my dogs. Felt great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Frost advisories hoisted up for tonight for pretty much all the mountains and most of the foothills. Winds should dye down today and especially tonight for prime radiation cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 only down to 43 here in the foothills. Feels great out this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Ole Goofus. Sort of reminds of kinda of how Sandy happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Sitting at 33 right now. I see the 0z GFS is showing some rain/snow mix next Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning is possible along the TN/NC border. Getting closer to my favorite time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Sitting at 33 right now. I see the 0z GFS is showing some rain/snow mix next Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning is possible along the TN/NC border. Getting closer to my favorite time of year! Nice! Sitting at 35 currently. A nice cold crisp morning. Been waiting and needing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 17 hours ago, Buckethead said: I was living in Lexington County SC for that 11/1 snow. That was all we saw (if my memory is right) the entire season. I moved 3 hours away to Wolf Laurel because that's not a real winter down there. 10/29 would be a happy day up here if the 12z gfs was correct. i chased that from charleston, what a memory. just west of cola where i ended up got 4". just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 17 hours ago, Buckethead said: I was living in Lexington County SC for that 11/1 snow. That was all we saw (if my memory is right) the entire season. I moved 3 hours away to Wolf Laurel because that's not a real winter down there. 10/29 would be a happy day up here if the 12z gfs was correct. Yeah we ended up with 8 plus around Haywood. Was beautiful. Windy as crap too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 The mid range forecast looks more and more promising for actual cold fall weather. You can see the whole northern hemisphere pattern change. A good sign for some cold weather in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The mid range forecast looks more and more promising for actual cold fall weather. You can see the whole northern hemisphere pattern change. A good sign for some cold weather in the east. 12z gfs shows some nice blocking taking place at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: 12z gfs shows some nice blocking taking place at the end of the run Yeah there is. I think the PNA is mostly driving this pattern change in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Euro looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 upper 30s here in some parts of n. ga mountains this morning. fired up the wood stove, forgot the a/c was still on but idle, then the wood stove caused the a/c to come on. thought it was going to create a black hole or something, the way i reacted when i realized i was heating and then paying to cool down the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, NGTim said: upper 30s here in some parts of n. ga mountains this morning. fired up the wood stove, forgot the a/c was still on but idle, then the wood stove caused the a/c to come on. thought it was going to create a black hole or something, the way i reacted when i realized i was heating and then paying to cool down the heat. Lol too funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 000 FXUS62 KGSP 171843 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A trailing strong cold fropa will move through the southern Appalachians on Tuesday, with much cooler thicknesses starting to spill into the region. Subfreezing 850 mb temps along with better NW flow moisture appear timed just beyond the current forecast period next Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Frost Advisory? I'm at 51.3 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Me too Joe, up here at 4400' we started at 49 this morning. Nice inversion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 Made it to 30 both the past two mornings with heavy frost. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Yeah some nice inversion temps up high guys. Very cool. Made it to 33 with frost. Coldest temp I could find around Haywood is 30 both mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 As we get into the trough next week we will get colder and it will feel like fall but I would only put about 20 percent into anyone seeing snow currently. We will have a nice trough come through then the PNA begins to go negative again and know the AO looks to go pretty positive, go figure. The NAO looks to maintain a neutral base primarily. The pattern will come in and go out as I currently see it. Which really is ok. It is October, not December or January. Enjoy the beautiful fall weather because it is all we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Well the Euro is a bit different than the GFS this run. If you are looking for some chances for high elevation snow then the Euro is the right way of doing it. It pushes the trough deep and sharp into our area and pretty much cuts off right over us. It is an interesting cold look. The end of the run is vastly different than the GFS as is has the PV up in southern Canada pretty much due north of us. It gets pretty cold with that look but that is bound to change. Anyway the cold trough next week is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 alright lads, it's showtime (LOL) (Via Brad. P) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Well the Euro is a bit different than the GFS this run. If you are looking for some chances for high elevation snow then the Euro is the right way of doing it. It pushes the trough deep and sharp into our area and pretty much cuts off right over us. It is an interesting cold look. The end of the run is vastly different than the GFS as is has the PV up in southern Canada pretty much due north of us. It gets pretty cold with that look but that is bound to change. Anyway the cold trough next week is impressive. That lake effect snow machine really gets going as the LP drops 10-15 millibars in less than 36 hours. With waters being so warm on the Great Lakes, I expect a good swath of moisture to be headed WNC's way Wednesday evening/Thursday morning. It may encounter so dry air on the way, but the upper elevations should see the first flakes of the season. I really like the look the pattern setting up for the next 12-18 days. Ample moisture available in the GOM with the Southern Jet aimed right at the south with sign of the northern jet dipping south with cold air. Wouldn't take much to tip the trough negative especially with a -nao resiliently building back and signs of strong blocking highs beginning to drop into the Midwest. Colds shots do not appear to be a problem for late Oct-early Nov so it will be interesting see if WNC can thread the early needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 This morning was the coldest of the week. I hit 30 degrees with heavy frost. I know someone had to be in the 20s. The models have been backing off of the trough swinging through. We will see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Today's 12z gfs does not bring the goods. The trough is baggy and not as sharp and no phase with the southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 A big spread spread in the AO and NAO ensembles today. From way negative to pretty positive. I would take that as the models having a hard time with the blocking so I give a low percentage currently at run to run continuity with blocking each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Headed over to Sugar Mountain today for a job interview. If I get this job, I will guarantee the best winter of the century this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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